Market Calms into Mid Term Election

Night before the midterms. The AI trade has finally paused for breath. Chip names continue to drift — Microsoft, Micron, AMD, Intel. Rotation back into the broader market is visible and the leverage that was stacked into the semiconductor complex is starting to unwind. Energy took a hit on oil’s eight-percent drop after Trump’s latest peace announcement. Election noise, not a durable deal, and the move was nowhere near “the biggest in history.” Palantir grew revenue 96 percent, beat, and doubled the business. Closed down three percent. At ~260 times earnings a beat is the floor, not a reason for a celebration. Apple was softer into numbers. Record revenue and price rises, China miss, and nothing that looked material. ASX futures are firmer after yesterday’s soft session. RBA today, Melbourne Cup this afternoon for everyone else. With the bulk of earnings behind us the focus moves to payrolls later in the week and the midterm result itself. Oracle is out with another $20 billion debt and equity raise. The duration is long — refinancing is still years away — but the CDS market has been oddly enthusiastic about selling protection. Marvell and Lumentum both sold off hard on the $115 billion combination. Analysts saw limited cost synergies and it is unusual for both stocks to be down double digits. Commodities: gold, silver, platinum and copper bounced. WTI lower on the Trump headlines. Uranium still soft. Lithium is attempting to base — not yet a buy. Bitcoin has held up better than the recent hack would imply. Mosaic stays free through the end of the year (recommendations, research, webinars and the archive). Normal pricing returns 1 January. Jonathan and Phil launch a weekly chart and technicals show on Mosaic from next week. Search Bulls versus Bears or MPC Morning Call for the Friday episode on hyperscaler cash burn. General advice only.