Market Update: Reality Check

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Thursday, February 12, 2026 — Market Update. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: WTI surged to $65.13, up 1.8%. Iran tensions still in the driver's seat. BUT HERE'S THE REALITY CHECK: EIA weekly data dropped yesterday. Crude inventories BUILT 8.53 million barrels. Market expected a 200K draw. Massive miss. This is the oversupply thesis in action. Demand destruction. Builds stacking up. Yet price rallied on geopolitical noise. OPEC+ holding output through March. They're trapped. Can't increase without crushing prices. OUR READ: $65 is the ceiling we've called for weeks. This rally is borrowed time. Iran premium will fade like it did in Week 3. EIA $52 average forecast. We're 25% above that. Mean reversion coming. OUR POSITION: $65 is the exit. Short here. Target $52. NATURAL GAS UPDATE: EIA storage report drops today at 10:30am. Market expecting another significant draw. Context: Last week's 360 Bcf withdrawal was the largest ever recorded. Storage now 27 Bcf below 5-year average at 2.46 Tcf. EIA projects inventory ending March below 1.9 Tcf — 8% below forecasts. Henry Hub holding above $3.00 support. The bounce from oversold continues. OUR POSITION: Any pullback to $3.00-$3.25 is accumulation. EIA sees $4.30 avg. We see $4.50+. Trade the data. Not the headlines. For energy opportunities: [email protected]