Markets see US as just a paper tiger on Iran

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the oil price has eased overnight on signs of new negotiations between the US and Iran, and relief that the US sanctions weren't as advertised. They exempted Chinese banks, for example. And China said it will support Iran. But first overnight, the Pulse dairy auction delivered higher prices from last week's full auction event - in USD terms at least. For example WMP was up almost +1%. But the rising NZD turned that into a -0.7% softening. In the US, ADP weekly private jobs update remains very low with less than +12,000 new jobs added over the past four weeks. Sales of new homes in the US were unusually low as well with the July level the lowest for that month since 2017 (apart from the pandemic 2022 drop). That puts them -6.5% lower than year-ago levels. The Richmond Fed's factory survey came in with a positive overall outcome in August, but lower than for July and the lowest since April. Re-shoring isn't a thing in the Mid-Atlantic states. The growth rate of prices paid and prices received rose in the month. Meanwhile their services survey in the region revealed slowing activity, with only slight increases in prices and costs. And that is consistent with the pullback in consumer sentiment as measured by the Conference Board in the US. It is measure that has been falling away since early 2025. There was a less well supported US Treasury 2 year bond sale overnight, but the yield dipped to 4.16% (4.20% high) from the prior equivalent event a month ago of 4.27%. In Canada, they reported lower wholesale sales in July, ending a run of expansions. The decline mainly reflects lower sales of agricultural supplies and minerals and ores. Otherwise little change. In the escalating trade war the US is waging on Canada, Canada has responded with 50% duties on American dairy products, steel, farm equipment, and appliances. And copper has risen to a new record high on the uncertainty surrounding US tariff policies. It isn't the only metal trading in the stratosphere of uncertainty. Tin is another example. Taiwan's July update of industrial production extended its outsized growth reporting (+26.9% from a year ago). And that was matched with high growth of retail sales there (+7.7%) Later today we will be watching the July CPI update from Australia where a fall in the rate from June's 3.8% to 3.2% is anticipated. Meanwhile, they are dealing with some major events. Firstly in NSW, a major home builder has collapsed. The Bathla Group has failed owing AU$3.6 bln in debt supposedly due to soaring construction costs which they can't recover just as a sharp decline in property sales hit them. Construction activity has frozen across approximately 15,000 homes, townhouses, and apartment developments currently underway. The vast majority of the AU$3.6 bln of debt is owed to private credit funds and non-bank lenders. There are sure to be cascading impacts. And bird flu is spreading faster now in Australia. So far more than 300 dead bird events have been confirmed out of 27,000 reports of unexplained dead bird events. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.64%, down -6 bps from yesterday at this time. The 30 year yield is at 5.18%, down -5 bps.  The price of gold is now at US$4648/oz, up +US$12 from yesterday at this time. Silver has firmed +50 USc to just under US$69/oz. Oil prices are down -US$3 from yesterday at just over US$82/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is just under US$88.50/bbl and down -US$3.50.  The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps from yesterday at just over 59.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 83.4 AUc. Against the euro we are also up +10 bps at 51.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 63.2, up +20 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$79,195 and up +0.4% from yesterday at this time. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained modest at just on +/-1.7%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI