MNDY Stock Q2 2026: monday.com Earnings - The Buyback Is Finished

monday.com (MNDY) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30; the Form 6-K cleared EDGAR at 07:00 ET Monday August 10, BEFORE the open - so August 10 IS the reaction session. It opened down 12.6 pct at USD81.40, bottomed at USD80.22 and closed down 4.84 pct at USD88.62, then USD87.52 by August 14.) monday.com beat by 33 pct - non-GAAP diluted EPS of USD1.48 against a USD1.11 bar, revenue of USD364.6M up 22 pct, record non-GAAP operating income of USD61.1M. Underneath: 64 pct of that per-share growth was BOUGHT not earned, the entire USD870M buyback is spent, and the Q3 guide implies about 1 pct sequential growth. Yet at USD87.52 the enterprise value is USD2.82B - 1.9x guided revenue and 9.9x guided free cash flow, with USD1.07B net cash and no debt. BUY, 3/5, fair value USD140. THE CALL: BUY (3/5, MEDIUM - CHEAP, BUT THE CATEGORY QUESTION IS UNRESOLVED) — base-case value ~$140.00 vs ~$87.52 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: BUY, 3/5. Fair value USD140 vs the USD87.52 close, +60 pct. Four methods converge and all four clear the price: a 5-year DCF at 10 pct gives USD155; 18x guided free cash flow plus net cash USD140; 3.0x guided revenue plus net cash USD123; 26x the Street's 2027 EPS of USD5.56 USD144. - THE ANGLE - THE BUYBACK IS FINISHED: non-GAAP diluted EPS rose USD0.38 y/y, but at the prior-year share count only USD0.14 came from earnings. USD0.24 - 64 pct - came from retiring 16.6 pct of the shares. The whole USD870M authorisation is spent, USD735M in H1, and no shares remain available. - THE PRINT: revenue USD364.6M up 21.9 pct (incl. 110bp of FX help); a GAAP operating LOSS of USD1.5M; RECORD non-GAAP operating income USD61.1M on a 17 pct margin vs 15 pct; non-GAAP diluted EPS USD1.48 vs a USD1.11 bar; GAAP EPS USD0.08. The bridge: USD41.2M of SBC plus USD21.4M restructuring. - THE GUIDE IS THE STORY: Q3 revenue guided USD368-370M against USD364.6M delivered - about 1.2 pct sequentially, versus 5.9 pct a year ago. The FY2026 revenue range did NOT move after a USD9.6M beat, so implied H2 revenue was quietly cut. Implied Q4 is about USD385M, up 15 pct. - THE RAISE THAT NEVER REACHES CASH: FY2026 non-GAAP operating income guidance went USD185-191M to USD230-234M - a USD44M raise. Adjusted free-cash-flow guidance stayed at USD280-290M, unchanged to the dollar, because USD30-35M of the restructuring is cash severance still to be paid. - THE COHORTS: customers above USD500k ARR grew 68 pct to 114 and those above USD100k grew 37 pct to 2,019. But customers with more than 10 users - 82 pct of ALL recurring revenue - grew just 6 pct to 65,783, adding 767 in the quarter. Net dollar retention slipped to 109 from 110 in March. - THE BALANCE SHEET AND THE MULTIPLE: USD1,072.8M of cash and securities, USD24.14 a share, 28 pct of the market cap, and NO debt. Enterprise value USD2.82B is 1.92x guided revenue and 9.9x guided free cash flow, against 30.4x last September. A reverse-DCF implies MINUS 0.1 pct growth forever. What to watch: UP: the July 22 restructuring - a 20 pct workforce cut - shows up as margin in the March quarter and free cash flow turns back up as severance clears. DOWN: net dollar retention breaks below 105 (109 now, from 110 in March), cash flow falls y/y a fourth straight quarter, or 2027 revenue guidance lands in the low teens. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.