Monday - May 11, 2026

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Resx8f From New York City, this Monday Dividend Cafe covers markets’ growing desensitization to Iran-related news even as oil nears $98.50, the 10-year yield rises to ~4.41%, and major indices sit at all-time highs. The S&P 500 appears expensive across valuation metrics, with dividend yield near a historic low (~1.08%), highlighting reliance on price returns versus cash income. The host argues earnings are currently driving markets, but notes a caveat: “other income” was 34% of net income, boosted by hyperscalers marking up private AI holdings. He reviews sector performance (energy best, communication services worst), policy items (possible reconciliation bill ideas like indexing capital gains to inflation; Virginia redistricting ruling; SEC exploring semi-annual reporting), economic data (115k jobs; weak manufacturing; low consumer confidence), housing trends, Fed leadership transition to Kevin Warsh, and rising longer-dated oil price expectations. 00:00 Welcome and Agenda 01:57 S&P Valuations Warning 03:56 Dividend Yield at Lows 05:53 Iran Risk Ignored 07:47 Earnings Driving Markets 08:23 Earnings Caveat AI 09:54 Geopolitics Headlines 10:32 Policy and Taxes Update 12:34 SEC Reporting Shift 13:00 Jobs and Consumers 14:21 Beef Tariffs Note 14:40 Housing Market Pulse 15:17 Fed Leadership Change 15:32 Oil Curve Backwardation 16:20 Ask TBG and Wrap Up Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com