More Red Flags

This week, we address a broad set of developments shaping the macro landscape: Japan’s government bond strains, the weakening dollar, the state of the housing market, rising inflation risks, a fall in the consumer savings rate, and the key takeaways from the January FOMC press conference. We also revisit the latest GDP report, highlighting a notable anomaly - an outsized contribution from gold exports in the third quarter - that we argued was unlikely to persist. That view was promptly borne out. This morning’s release of the Census Bureau’s International Trade in Goods and Services for November showed a sharp decline in gold exports and a widening trade deficit. As in prior episodes, our outlook for the economy and equity markets remains firmly negative.