MPS preview: demand destruction and the 90,000 sales revision

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!With the Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) landing this Wednesday, the economic data is sending an interesting signal. April's electronic card transactions were 1.3% month-on-month—with fuel spending down 2% despite rising prices. It’s decent evidence that "demand destruction" is actively under way as households fundamentally shift their behaviour.This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson preview the upcoming OCR decision and why Nick is sliding off the fence to join the Kiwibank camp, lowering the probability of a July rate hike to 40%. We also pull apart the latest Monthly Chart Pack data, which reveals a consecutive four-month drop in year-on-year sales volumes, forcing a major downward revision to our 2026 housing transaction forecasts.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected] podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.