The NZ Property Market Podcast

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!The underlying data is flashing clear warning signs of economic consolidation. This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson dissect the latest New Zealand Activity Index (NZAC) and the Reserve Bank’s weekly updated Kiwi GDP Nowcast. The metrics reveal a stark economic slowdown in Q2, dropping bank expectations for a July Official Cash Rate (OCR) increase into a decisive holding pattern as major institutions pull back their forecast increases.The structural highlight of the week centres on the newly released Reserve Bank mortgage lending data for May. For the first time in two solid years, year-on-year lending growth has ground to an absolute halt, printing a flat $8.6 billion line. We look past the national figures to uncover the real structural landscape: a massive $1.67 trillion asset baseline backed by just $398 billion in total debt. While an aggregate LVR of 24% suggests immense national stability, we expose the distribution trap masking the reality that one-third of New Zealand households carry 100% of the entire country's mortgage debt burden.This week we discuss:The GDP Proxy Pivot: Why the Reserve Bank's dynamic, weekly updated Kiwi GDP Nowcast is eclipsing the traditional NZAC index as a truer indicator of a flatlining Q2 economy.The Lending Streak Snapped: Dissecting May’s flat $8.6 billion lending print and what it means for forward real estate velocity.The 24% Equity Illusion: Why a $1.67 trillion asset class hides the severe debt concentration weighing exclusively on the mortgaged third of the population.First-Home Buyer Domination: The raw deal metrics proving first-time buyers are actively expanding transaction volumes while movers collapse by 11%.The Landlord Tax Premium: How evolving political rhetoric from Labour and the Green Party regarding interest deductibility is shifting the long-term investor baseline.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected] podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Are you sitting tight in a three-bedroom home waiting for the property market to "improve"? You might be missing a massive strategic window.In this episode of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson unpack the latest "trade-up premium" data. They reveal why a softer housing market has actually made it significantly cheaper to upgrade to a four-bedroom home right now, with value gaps shrinking by up to 12% across major New Zealand regions.The guys also dive into a massive week of economic shifts. Between lower-than-expected Q1 GDP growth (0.8%) and cooling monthly inflation numbers, the previously "guaranteed" July OCR rate hike has suddenly hit a 50/50 standstill. Could the Reserve Bank hold off until September?Plus, we look at why property investors are showing early signs of election nervousness in the upcoming Chart Pack, and celebrate an epic weekend of Kiwi sport - from the Hurricanes' masterclass Super Rugby victory at the Cake Tin to the All Whites' tactical run.This week we discuss:The Shrinking Value Gap: Suburb-level shifts in the 3-to-4-bedroom price premium (and why downturns favour the bold buyer).The Macro Shift: Why 0.8% GDP and falling Q2 CPI projections (down to 4.0%) are giving the RBNZ pause.The Mechanics of the OCR Vote: Dissecting the 3-all split committee and the likelihood of one voter flipping back to a hold.Chart Pack Teaser: First-home buyer resilience vs. shifting investor sentiment ahead of the election.The Sports Wrap: A massive weekend for the Canes, the Black Caps, the Warriors, and the All Whites.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected] podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Welcome to a special regional guest edition of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast. This week, Head of Research Nick Goodall returns to his hometown roots to interview Jemma Scott-Davidson, owner and mortgage advisor at Loan Market. With over 20 years of commercial banking experience before launching her independent advisory firm, Jemma provides an invaluable, boots-on-the-ground temperature check of the winterless north.Moving past the mainstream media's "boom or bust" narratives, Jemma explains why the current environment is actually a return to a "normal" market driven by fundamental life choices. We analyse the distinct activity occurring within the $650,000 to $750,000 sweet spot, expose the pricing standoff affecting properties purchased at the late-2021 peak, and break down the three clear interest rate fixing strategies currently emerging among New Zealand borrowers navigating the post-MPS landscape.This week we discuss:The Whangārei Sweet Spot: Why properties priced between $650,000 and $750,000 are seeing steady, healthy transaction volumes from regular families.The Million-Dollar Value Gap: Navigating the lack of quality stock in the $800,000 to $1,000,000 bracket and why overpriced listings are distorting buyer expectations.The Peak COVID Standoff: Why un-capitulated vendors who bought in late 2021 are stalling market velocity.Three Emerging Fixing Behaviours: 1. The Confident Can-Kickers: Rolling on 6-month fixes to capture short-term savings while waiting for geopolitical oil conflicts to settle. 2. The Long-Term Securers: Locking in 5-year terms to protect fragile household cash flows from further volatility. 3. The Risk Splitters: Tranching debt across 2 and 3-year terms to avoid total structural exposure.Why DTIs are Stalling: Why high bank test rates are capturing debt-to-income limits by default, leaving equity and deposits as the primary hurdles.Innovation in Commercial Lending: Real-world examples of Northland businesses navigating tight cash flows through clever asset diversification and labour hoarding.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected] podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!The structural shift in the New Zealand property market is cementing itself in the data. While the latest Mapping the Market release reveals a highly patchy horizontal flatline across the regions, the newly updated May Buyer Classification data exposes a deep divide in buyer behaviour. Mortgaged multiple property owners (MPOs) have taken a decisive step back in the second quarter, dropping to a 22.4% market share as the compounding realities of tight yields, capital growth re-evaluations, and shifting political polls weigh on investor confidence.This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson break down why first home buyers continue to defy gravity, capturing a near-record 28.5% market share. We also deliver regional deep dives into the shifting demographics of Hamilton, Tauranga, and Dunedin, preview the upcoming Q1 GDP metrics alongside Tuesday’s crucial Selected Price Indexes, and analyse how an economic slowdown across the ditch in Australia could quietly reshape New Zealand's net migration baseline.This week we discuss:The Investor Retraction: Why mortgaged investors have pulled back for two consecutive quarters, hitting a soft 22.4% market share in Q2 so far.First Home Buyers Target Records: Inside the relentless 28.5% market share run and the mechanics driving low-deposit entry pathways.Regional Centre Disruption: Analysing Tauranga’s equity-rich mover surge (33%) and a surprising jump in first-time buyers to 25%.The Dunedin Yield Matrix: Why gross student accommodation yields look attractive, but aging housing stock is widening the gap between gross and net returns.Net Migration Rebound: Tracking the steady climb back to 22,800 annual net arrivals and why high rental listings are keeping a ceiling on structural rent spikes.GDP vs. Selected Price Indexes: Previewing the consensus 1.0% Q1 GDP growth figure and explaining why Tuesday’s monthly inflation data holds the real key to the July OCR decision.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected] podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!The May Cotality Home Value Index (HVI) results are officially in, delivering a perfectly flat 0.0% national movement. While regional variability persists under the surface - with Christchurch nudging up 0.4% and Wellington softening by 0.3% - the broader market continues to track sideways as buyers hold the pricing power but sellers refuse to capitulate. This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson answer a brilliant listener question from Matthew, digging into the data to debunk the mainstream media narrative that a "glut" of townhouses is dragging down the Auckland property market. We also unpack the surprising resilience of the new build sector with building consents climbing to 39,000, dismantle claims that New Zealand has become a "tax haven" for Australian investors, and analyse RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway’s latest hints on short-term inflation.This week we discuss:May HVI National Breakdown: Why a 0.0% national change signals a long, plain-vanilla winter of sideways tracking.The Auckland Townhouse Myth: Breaking down the suburb-level data proving townhouse values are performing similarly to standalone homes (both down 3% annually).Building Consent Resilience: Why the current annualised track of 39,000 consents shows a construction sector vastly more robust than during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC).The Australian "Tax Haven" Headline: Dismantling trans-Tasman media hype regarding stamp duty, bright-line changes, and cross-border tax complexities.Paul Conway’s Inflation Hints: Insights from the RBNZ Chief Economist's recent webinar and what it reveals about the internal vs. external OCR committee split.The 5-Month Election Runway: Anticipating the upcoming structural slowdown as capital gains tax debates re-emerge.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected] podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!The tide has officially turned for mortgage interest rates. Following the Reserve Bank's razor-edge split decision to hold the OCR last week, borrowers are hitting a major structural shift. An estimated 40% of all New Zealand mortgage debt is exposed to repricing in the next six months alone - shifting from a mindset of two years of falling rates straight into a rising rate wall.This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson analyse the macroeconomic consequences of this lag in monetary policy. We break down the newly updated Cotality Sales Volume Forecast Model, which officially strips 10,000 transactions out of our original 2026 projections.Plus, we dissect the internal vs. external board divide at the RBNZ, unpack the Government's council "consent bonus" budget initiative, and preview Thursday's upcoming May Home Value Index (HVI) results.This week we discuss:The Repricing Shock: Why 31% of fixed debt and 10% of floating debt are running directly into higher rates over the next six months.The 2-Year Fix Pivot: Why the mathematical reality of moving from a short-term fix to a 2-year runway means a 0.3% to 0.4% immediate lift in debt-servicing costs.Slashing the 2026 Model: Recalibrating the official housing metrics down to a flat 90,000 transaction ceiling for this year, with a potential slide below 90k in 2027.The Internal vs. External Divide: Analysing Cam Bagrie’s take on why external MPC members are voting for rate hikes while internal RBNZ staff cling to optimistic GDP models.April Mortgage Lending Slowdown: Dissecting the $8 billion lending block and why bank switching and aggressive cashback windows are shutting.Council "Consent Bonuses": Reviewing the Government’s infrastructure financial incentives for councils hitting high density targets.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected] podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!In this special reaction episode, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson unpack the latest RBNZ OCR decision. The rate was held, but only just. The vote was split 3–3, with the Governor casting the deciding vote. This highlights how finely balanced the outlook is.The key message is that rate rises are likely coming. The OCR track has been revised higher. An increase as soon as July now looks probable. Some committee members wanted to hike now. Their view was to act early to limit future inflation risks.Inflation forecasts have been lifted. Headline inflation is expected to rise above 4% in the near term. This is driven by fuel and import costs. Core inflation is easing, however, and longer-term expectations remain stable. This creates uncertainty around how aggressive the RBNZ needs to be.Growth has been downgraded. The recovery is expected to be slower. Unemployment is set to stay elevated for the next 12–18 months.The housing market outlook is weak. House prices are expected to be flat or slightly down. Sales volumes also look subdued. Mortgage rates may rise further, although much has already been priced in.Overall, the OCR is on hold for now. But the balance has shifted. Future increases look increasingly likely.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected] podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!With the Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) landing this Wednesday, the economic data is sending an interesting signal. April's electronic card transactions were 1.3% month-on-month—with fuel spending down 2% despite rising prices. It’s decent evidence that "demand destruction" is actively under way as households fundamentally shift their behaviour.This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson preview the upcoming OCR decision and why Nick is sliding off the fence to join the Kiwibank camp, lowering the probability of a July rate hike to 40%. We also pull apart the latest Monthly Chart Pack data, which reveals a consecutive four-month drop in year-on-year sales volumes, forcing a major downward revision to our 2026 housing transaction forecasts.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected] podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!The Q1 2026 Pain and Gain Report is officially live, revealing the clear signals of a buyer's market. While 88% of property resellers still walked away with a gross profit, the share of properties selling at a loss has ticked up to 12% - driven heavily by short hold periods and a challenging apartment sector.This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson unpack the stark reality of the 4-year median hold period for loss-makers compared to the 10-year safety net for profitable sales. We also look at the April Selected Price Indexes data, discuss Nick’s onstage debate with Kiwibank’s Jarrod Kerr regarding the necessity of a July OCR hike, and track the quiet turnaround in net migration figures.This week we discuss:Q1 Pain and Gain Report: Why gross profits have fallen from a peak of $440,000 down to a median of $285,000.The hold period reality: The mathematical proof that buying at the 2021 peak and selling in 2026 guarantees a tough result.Apartment vulnerability: Why 41% of apartments resold at a loss during the quarter.April price indexes: Understanding why domestic price segments are softening even as diesel and petrol spike.The July OCR debate: Nick outlines the demand destruction argument that suggests the RBNZ should hold fire.Migration & rents: Net migration climbs back to almost 25,000, adding steady structural demand to a highly volatile rental market.Investor anxiety: Anecdotal feedback from Auckland on interest deductibility and long-term cash flow fears.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected] podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!The latest Cotality-Westpac First Home Buyer Report is out, and the data is a clear win for those entering the market. With a 27.5% market share, FHBs are near record levels, but the real story is what they are buying - 77% are securing standalone houses, up from just 70% a few years ago.This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson dive into the devil in the detail of the Q1 labour market stats. Why did unemployment drop to 5.3% despite a loose labour market, and what does the Reserve Bank’s Financial Stability Report (FSR) tell us about the $100 million cashback war of late 2025?This week we discuss:FHB Report Q1: Why FHBs are getting more house for their money and why the average age has dropped to 35.81% LVRs: The Westpac data confirms that low-deposit lending is the engine room for first-time buyers right now.Labour Market Surprise: Analysing the 5.3% unemployment rate and why contained wage growth is actually good news for OCR timing.The FSR Breakdown: The RBNZ’s take on sustainable house prices and the cost of the bank cashback wars.OCR Debate: Nick previews his Devil's Advocate session with Kiwibank’s Jarrod Kerr.Personal Wrap: A shout-out to Sky Sports’ Jeff McTainsh and a victory for the Phoenix Women.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected] podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!The Cotality-Westpac First Home Buyer Report May 2026In this special guest episode Kelvin Davidson is joined by Satish Ranchhod from the Westpac Economics team to discuss the latest co-branded First Home Buyer Report.They cover off the Iran conflict, the implications for NZ's economy, inflation, and interest rates, then what it might all mean for first home buyers.Lately FHBs have remained a dominant force in the property market, accounting for high shares of transactions, and also getting 'more house for their money' - supported by a soft market, plenty of listings, and low deposit lending allowances at the banks.Indeed, Westpac's own data shows that the average LVR has recently gone above 80%, while the average FHB age has dipped a little.Ultimately, it's a continued good news story - and FHBs still have reason for optimism in the coming months too.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected] podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!The April Home Value Index (HVI) results are in, and while the national median technically rose by a modest 0.1%, the broader picture is one of a flattening market. This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson peel back the layers on the regional divide - why are Auckland and Wellington softening while Christchurch and Invercargill continue to climb?We also dive into a surprising dose of 'hopium' from the March economic data. With filled jobs up 0.3% and the NZ Activity Index (NZAC) hitting its fastest growth in over three years, we ask if the economy is showing more resilience than expected, or if these are simply lagging indicators of a pre-conflict world.This week, we discuss:April HVI results: The national median is up 0.1%, but regional variability is the real story.The regional divide: Why Auckland’s supply pipeline and Wellington’s 'vibe' shift are weighing on values compared to the farming-backed strength of the south.March economic resilience: Filled jobs grew by 0.3%, and the NZAC rose 3.2% - could Q1 GDP be stronger than the RBNZ expects?Labour market preview: Why we expect the unemployment rate to hold steady at 5.4% this week.RBNZ watch: A preview of Wednesday’s Financial Stability Review (FSR) and the ongoing quest for transparency.First home buyer report: A teaser for our upcoming release with Westpac, including surprising data on buyer ages.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected] podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.