The NZ Property Market Podcast

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!The August Cotality Home Value Index is out, showing a -0.4% monthly decline across Aotearoa New Zealand—marking the fifth consecutive month of value contraction. However, looking at property purely through the lens of the "fall from the peak" might be completely skewing our view of the market.This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson unpack the August data. They explore why looking at the 10-year compound annual growth rate (+3.4% per year) offers a much more realistic picture of the "new normal" for capital gains, while stripping out the artificial post-COVID boom and bust.The guys also break down why Auckland apartments plunged -7.8% over the past year compared to just -2.2% for standalone houses, why dwelling consents keep defying gravity (hitting a 3-year high of 41,000 annually), and review the major trading banks' reactions to last week's 2.75% OCR decision. Plus, Father's Day debriefs, scorched almonds, and the All Blacks' test in Johannesburg.This week we discuss:August HVI Breakdown: Why values fell -0.4% in August (down -1.0% YoY), led by weakness in Te Whanganui-a-Tara / Wellington (-0.6%) and Tāmaki Makaurau / Auckland (-0.5%).The 10-Year Growth Benchmark: Why the 10-year average annual growth rate of 3.4% represents the true baseline for long-term property performance.Property Type Divide: The stark split in Tāmaki Makaurau, where apartments dropped -7.8% over the past year while standalone houses fell only -2.2%.Construction Defies Gravity: Why July dwelling consents rose 10% YoY (41,000 annual running total) despite rising supply and cost pressures.The Bank Consensus on OCR: How ANZ, ASB, Westpac, BNZ, and Kiwibank interpreted the RBNZ's measured 25bps hike to 2.75%.Weekend Sports Wrap: All Blacks fall short in the Ellis Park cauldron, Father's Day rowing sessions, and Northland's upcoming Shield defence against Waikato.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected] podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has lifted the Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%. While the hike brings monetary policy closer to a neutral setting, the tone of the accompanying Monetary Policy Statement was distinctly cautious and data-dependent.In this special reactionary episode of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson unpack the RBNZ’s decision just 40 minutes after its release. They break down the consensus vote, analyse why a 4-to-2 committee split on inflation risks led to the hike, and explain why an October rate rise looks far less likely with the general election looming.The guys also dive into the Reserve Bank's detailed economic forecasts - including flat house price projections for the next 3 to 4 quarters - and explain why fixed mortgage rates are unlikely to see a sudden spike off the back of this decision.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected] podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Property sales volumes have fallen for the seventh consecutive month, drifting down 6% year-on-year in July. Yet amidst the broader market slowdown, first-home buyers are executing an aggressive counter-cyclical surge—capturing a record-breaking 29% market share.This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall (dialling in from his car outside Hamilton following Northland's historic Ranfurly Shield defence) and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson unpack the newly released July Housing Chart Pack. They analyse why buyers maintain total pricing power with listing inventory elevated, and why annual sales are tracking closer to 90,000 rather than the 100,000 anticipated earlier this year.The guys also deliver a comprehensive preview of Wednesday’s pivotal Reserve Bank Monetary Policy Statement and OCR decision. Kelvin breaks down the latest economic indicators—including the NZ Activity Index (+2.6%), filled jobs (+0.3%), and steadying business confidence—and explains why another 25-basis-point OCR hike appears locked in. Plus, an impassioned debrief on the Taniwha defending the Ranfurly Shield in Whangārei and the All Blacks' test in Johannesburg.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected] podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!After years of national hand-wringing, housing affordability in New Zealand has officially returned to long-term averages. Falling house prices, lower interest rates, and rising wages have combined to bring the value-to-income ratio back down to 6.7 - exactly where the historical average has sat since 2004.This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson unpack the highly anticipated 6-monthly Housing Affordability Report. They discuss why mortgage servicing now takes up 40% of median household income, why years to save a deposit has dropped to 8.9 years, and why regional data paints vastly different pictures for centres like Wellington versus Tauranga.The guys also dive into the latest macroeconomic data - including softer inflation and a slight lift in card spending - and explain why "good news is bad" when it comes to the Reserve Bank’s upcoming OCR decision. Plus, Nick delivers a passionate wrap-up of an unforgettable weekend of rugby, from the Taniwha claiming the Ranfurly Shield to the All Blacks' epic win at Ellis Park.This week we discuss:Affordability Returns: Why all four major housing affordability measures are finally back to (or below) long-term historical averages.The Mortgage Burden: How servicing a new mortgage at an 80% LVR now requires 40% of gross household income.Regional Nuance: Why Wellington is now the most affordable main centre, and why Tauranga’s numbers are skewed by wealth over income.Macro Data Mix-Up: How softer price indices and slightly stronger card spending impact the upcoming OCR call.The 'Good News is Bad' OCR Dilemma: Why an improving economy might just give the RBNZ the confidence to hold or hike rates again.Rugby Wrap: The Taniwha's historic Ranfurly Shield win, the All Blacks at Ellis Park, and the Warriors topping the NRL table. 🔗 Read the full Housing Affordability Report:  https://www.cotality.com/nz/insights/articles/nz-housing-affordability-returns-to-long-term-norms-as-buyers-reap-the-benefitsSign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected] podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Property resellers are feeling the squeeze. In Q2 2026, 13% of New Zealand properties sold for a loss - a significant shift from the peak of the market where losses were practically zero. However, the data reveals a stark contrast based on one critical factor: how long you hold the property.This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson dive deep into the latest Q2 Pain & Gain report. They unpack why the median hold period for properties selling at a profit has hit a record high of 10.4 years, while those selling at a loss were typically held for just 4.3 years (purchased right at the market peak).The guys also break down regional and property-type disparities, explaining why Auckland is seeing higher loss ratios (20.9%) compared to Wellington (18.4%), heavily driven by the apartment sector. Plus, Kelvin clarifies the latest net migration figures - unpacking the difference between New Zealand citizen departures and net new arrivals, and why this is keeping rental growth surprisingly subdued.This week we discuss:Q2 Pain & Gain Realities: Why 13% of properties are now selling at a loss, and how stricter credit controls prevented a GFC-style slump.The 10-Year Golden Rule: The record-high 10.4-year median hold period for profitable sales versus the 4.3-year danger zone.Auckland's Apartment Drag: Why flats and apartments are driving Auckland's loss ratio up to 20.9%, and the yield vs. capital growth trade-off.The Migration Misconception: Breaking down the 17,500 net migration figure - including net 37,500 NZ citizens leaving versus net 55,000 new migrants arriving.Rental Market Squeeze: How low household creation (people staying flatting or with parents) is holding rents down despite population growth.Affordability Preview: A sneak peek at the upcoming housing affordability report and how dropping interest rates are shifting the dial.🔗 Read the full Q2 Pain & Gain Report🔗 Watch the latest Monthly Video UpdateSign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected] podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!New Zealand’s unemployment rate rose to 5.6% in Q2 2026 - the highest level in over a decade. However, beneath the headline number lies an encouraging trend for the residential property market: total employment actually expanded, meaning the unemployment jump was driven by an expanding labour force rather than mass job destruction.This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson unpack the latest Q2 labour market data. They examine why insulated homeowner employment is keeping non-performing loans and mortgagee sales at near-record lows, alongside a striking North-South Island economic divide where North Island unemployment sits at 6.0% compared to just 3.7% in the South Island. The guys also break down Kelvin’s latest analysis of Reserve Bank mortgage lending data. They cover why 50% to 60% of first-home buyers continue to secure low-deposit finance, the ongoing borrower shift toward two-year fixed mortgage terms, and why interest-only lending remains strictly controlled despite broader economic headwinds. This week we discuss:Q2 Labour Market Breakdown: Why 5.6% unemployment is driven by growing labour supply rather than job destruction. Housing Market Immunity: How steady employment among existing homeowners prevents non-performing loans and forced sales. Regional Labour Disparities: The North Island (6.0%) versus South Island (3.7%) unemployment divide, led by Northland (8.8%) and Auckland (6.5%). Reserve Bank Lending Trends: Key takeaways from mortgage data, including active refinancing and low interest-only volumes. Mortgage Term Shifts: Why borrowers are increasingly locking in two-year fixed rates as interest rate insurance. September 2nd OCR Runway: How subdued wage growth (2.0%) impacts Reserve Bank inflation expectations ahead of the upcoming OCR statement. 🔗 Read Kelvin’s latest Pulse article on RBNZ lending data: https://www.cotality.com/nz/insights/articles/mortgage-lending-trends-10-things-to-know-right-nowSign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected] podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Is Australia on the verge of an extended New Zealand-style property slump, or will structural differences across the ditch protect the Aussie market?In this special Trans-Tasman edition of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief NZ Economist Kelvin Davidson are joined by special guest Tim Lawless, Executive Research Director at Cotality Asia Pacific (celebrating nearly 20 years with the firm).Together, the team conducts a thorough comparison of the post-COVID housing cycles in New Zealand and Australia. They explore why NZ values experienced a sharper 40% boom followed by a prolonged -17% drawdown, while Australia’s market rebounded rapidly off the back of a chronic physical housing deficit.The panel compares key macro settings, including NZ’s 90% fixed-rate mortgage structure versus Australia’s 60%+ variable debt, mortgage servicing burdens pushing 50% of income in Australia versus easing to 37% in NZ, and the potential impacts of Australia's recent federal budget tax adjustments to negative gearing and Capital Gains Tax (CGT).This week we discuss:Boom & Bust Trajectories: Comparing NZ’s 40% post-COVID surge and -17% fall with Australia’s 25% peak and swift recovery.Mortgage Debt Mechanics: Why NZ’s 90% fixed-rate debt delays monetary pass-through while Australia’s variable market (~6.2% rates) feels immediate rate shocks.Affordability Ceilings: Analysing mortgage serviceability burdens in Australia (pushing 50% of pre-tax income) versus NZ (peaked at 50%, now eased to 37%).Physical Supply Disparity: How NZ’s townhouse boom reduced housing shortages while Australia faces severe ongoing supply deficits.Tax Policy & Negative Gearing: What Australia's budget changes mean for investor demand and whether Aussie capital will flow to NZ.Key Trans-Tasman Lessons: What Australian buyers and policymakers can learn from NZ’s extended multi-year property adjustment.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected] podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!National property values recorded their fourth consecutive monthly drop in July, slipping -0.3% to extend the quarterly decline to -1.0%. On this week's episode of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson unpack the latest Cotality Home Value Index (HVI) results. We explore the deepening North-South divide: while Auckland (-0.7% month) and Wellington (-0.8% month) continue to drag, Christchurch (+0.1%) and Dunedin (+0.2%) remain resilient, and Invercargill has surged to a new record median peak of $565,000 (+8.2% YoY).The guys also discuss a tongue-in-cheek LinkedIn post by Westpac Senior Economist Satish Ranchhod, which highlighted a statistical correlation between per-capita cow populations and house price growth. We explain why strong agricultural export returns are buffering rural centres like Gore, Hurunui, and Mackenzie, while urban service-driven economies lag under high interest rates and pre-election policy uncertainty.Finally, we preview Wednesday's Q2 official labour market release following June's +0.1% filled jobs figure, evaluate why the unemployment rate could rise from 5.3% to 5.5% due to labour force expansion rather than mass layoffs, and review ANZ's July business confidence bounce.This week we discuss:July Home Value Index: Why national values fell -0.3% over the month and -1.0% over the quarter.The North-South Divide: Auckland and Wellington value softness versus Christchurch (+3.6% YoY) and Dunedin (+3.3% YoY).Invercargill's New Record: Why the southern city hit $565,000 alongside agricultural hubs Gore, Hurunui, and Mackenzie.Satish Ranchhod’s Cow Post: How agricultural strength is directly supporting regional home values.Labour Market Preview: Why a forecast unemployment rise to 5.5% reflects a growing workforce rather than job destruction.Election Hesitation: How investor sentiment is cooling as buyers pause ahead of upcoming political tax debates.Listener Feedback: Addressing a Spotify comment on Christchurch suburb competition and the OCR path.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected] podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!In this special guest edition of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall is joined by Ryan Hannigan and Ben Grant from Loan Market Dunedin. Together, they explore the unique dynamics of the Otago and Southland property markets, where housing values and sales activity continue to outperform many northern regions.Ryan and Ben break down the on-the-ground drivers in Dunedin, including how the multi-billion-dollar Dunedin Hospital build is attracting families, why first-home buyers are actively targeting the $600,000 to $700,000 price bracket, and how infill townhouse developments are transforming traditional suburbs. They also expose a key financing hurdle: why trading banks apply strict boarding house lending criteria to room-by-room student rentals, creating friction for investors despite high demand and steady yields.The conversation also covers broader mortgage trends across New Zealand, highlighting that over 50% of buyers in June purchased with less than a 20% deposit. Ryan and Ben share practical advice on navigating 2–3 year fixed rate terms (4.99%–5.19%), managing test interest rates, and avoiding common pitfalls when refixing online or relying on unverified AI mortgage advice.This week we discuss:Dunedin Market Resilience: Why median values around $623,000 keep the region highly accessible for first-home buyers and relocating families.Student Rental Financing: Why banks enforce boarding house rules on room-by-room student lets and how parents are stepping in to buy for studying children.Infill Development Growth: How developers are acquiring older homes to build modern townhouses, mirroring Christchurch’s urban densification model.The Southland Boom: Why Invercargill and broader Southland continue to buck national trends with strong job security and affordable $400,000 starter homes.The Low-Deposit Reality: Unpacking data showing more than half of recent borrowers entered the market with under a 20% deposit, including Kāinga Ora 5% options.Mortgage Structuring Strategy: Why clients are locking in 2–3 year fixed rates for budget certainty rather than chasing short-term rate dips.Advisor Insights: How to secure a "real estate pre-approval" to stand out in multi-offer scenarios, and how to filter out social media mortgage advice.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected] podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Residential property transactions across New Zealand have recorded six consecutive months of year-on-year declines. This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson unpack the latest monthly Chart Pack data, revealing that first-half 2026 sales volumes reached 43,183 - down 4.2% compared to the same period in 2025. We explore why high listing stock and broader economic caution are keeping buyers and sellers in a stalemate, while noting that a lack of distress selling continues to keep the market anchored.The guys also dissect the Q2 CPI inflation release, which landed at 4.1% annually. While slightly above the Reserve Bank's revised 3.9% forecast, the print landed directly in line with commercial bank expectations. We break down the stark divergence within the data: tradable inflation spiked to 4.9% off the back of global fuel pressures, while domestic non-tradable inflation eased slightly to 3.4%. Furthermore, annual rental growth has slowed to just 0.5% - the weakest rate of increase in more than two decades.Finally, we discuss Stats NZ's official roadmap to introduce a monthly CPI release by August 2027, preview the upcoming July Home Value Index, and evaluate why the RBNZ remains firmly on track for an Official Cash Rate increase at the September 2nd statement.This week we discuss:Six Months of Falling Sales: Why H1 2026 transaction volumes contracted 4.2% year-on-year, missing early expectations of a 5% to 10% recovery.Regional Sales Dynamics: Analysing the rolling three-month volume trends, from Dunedin’s 7.4% rise to Auckland’s 7.8% drop.The 4.1% CPI Reality Check: Breaking down the Q2 inflation print and why headline numbers drive consumer inflation expectations.Tradable vs. Non-Tradable Divergence: How fuel costs drove tradables to 4.9% while non-tradable domestic pressures softened to 3.4%.20-Year Low for Rent Growth: What annual rental growth of just 0.5% means for residential landlord yields.The Path to September 2nd: Why the Reserve Bank is expected to push the OCR closer to its neutral target (~3.25%) despite weak consumer activity.Official Monthly CPI Roadmap: Stats NZ's timeline to transition from quarterly inflation tracking to monthly Tier-1 reporting by August 2027.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected] podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Construction output costs are tracking upward, but residential builders are absorbing the financial hit. This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson analyse the newly released Q2 Cordell Construction Cost Index (CCCI). The data shows an annualised cost acceleration to 3.5% for the second quarter, up from 3.0% in Q1. We break down the structural reasons why these rising input costs - driven by steel and fuel surcharges - are not being passed on to consumers, as flat residential values and high existing listing volumes force builders to sacrifice their margins.The guys also preview the critical Q2 CPI inflation drop. Backed by the latest June Selected Price Indexes (SPI) data, which covers roughly 45% of the consumer basket, major trading bank economists have upgraded their near-term inflation projections to between 3.9% and 4.1%. We discuss what this means for the Reserve Bank’s targeted return to neutrality and why the upcoming September 2nd Official Cash Rate decision remains firmly aligned for another baseline increase.Finally, we explore the highly volatile net migration metrics, detailing the staggering 23% downward revision to April’s population data, and look at the sharp 1.4% drop in June electronic card spending that signals ongoing consumer caution.This week we discuss:The Q2 CCCI Acceleration: Why construction output costs rose to 3.5% annually and why the long-term sector average remains well below the post-COVID peak.The Margin Squeeze: How high volumes of competing existing housing stock prevent builders from passing input inflation through to consumers.The Selected Price Indexes: Analysing the mixed signals from June's fuel and food metrics ahead of tomorrow’s official CPI release.The 3.9% Inflation Floor: Why the RBNZ adjusted its baseline inflation forecast down from 4.2% at the recent Monetary Policy Review.Population Revisions: The macro implications of Stats New Zealand erasing 5,000 people from April’s net migration figures.The Sports Wrap: Spain’s football World Cup victory, Ryan Fox’s historic Open Championship win, and the All Blacks’ dominant performance against Ireland.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected] podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!First-home buyers are occupying a larger share of the New Zealand property market than at any point in the last two decades.This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson dive into the June Buyer Classification data to complete a full wrap of the second quarter. The numbers reveal that first-home buyers secured a record-breaking 28.3% market share across Q2, capitalising on lower house prices, KiwiSaver access, and high-LVR bank lending allowances.Meanwhile, the landscape for investors is fracturing. While small-scale "mum and dad" buyers holding two properties are steady, large-scale investors owning ten or more properties saw their market activity fall in Q2 down to 2.3%. We break down the combination of high bank serviceability testing, debt-to-income (DTI) restrictions, flat rents, and growing election anxieties regarding interest deductibility that are driving this retreat.The guys also look at the sudden breakdown of the Iran-US peace deal and the re-closing of the Strait of Hormuz, analysing how renewed global supply chain uncertainty impacts the path toward the next Official Cash Rate review on September 2nd.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected] podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!The Reserve Bank has delivered an unexpected baseline shift. This week on a special reactionary episode of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson dissect the RBNZ’s unanimous decision to hike the Official Cash Rate (OCR) from 2.25% to 2.5%.Despite a fracturing market consensus on Monday, the Monetary Policy Committee voted with total consensus to remove some economic accommodation. We break down the structural reasons behind the hike, including the RBNZ’s strategic pushback against recent easing in wholesale interest rates and a dropping exchange rate that threatened to undo their inflation-fighting progress.The guys look past the headline figure to analyse the increased transparency under Governor Anna Bremen, exploring how individual committee members view current inflation balances. We map out what this means for a flattening housing market - currently down 0.9% annually at the end of June - and preview the five pillars of macro uncertainty that will dictate the next interest rate decision on September 2nd.This week we discuss:The Unanimous Decision: Why the committee completely abandoned its previous 3-all split to push the OCR to 2.5%.The Financial Conditions Pushback: How dropping wholesale market interest rates forced the RBNZ to intervene to prevent premature economic stimulus.The Committee Split: Dissecting the internal RBNZ friction between members warning of structural inflation risks and those viewing them as balanced.The 3.9% Inflation Reality: Why the RBNZ downgraded its near-term Q2 CPI expectations from 4.3% while simultaneously lifting interest rates.The Housing Impact: Why retail mortgage rates are unlikely to shift aggressively despite the higher OCR baseline.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected] podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Does high climate risk actually destroy residential property value, or does it create a structural entry point for desperate buyers? This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson unpack a groundbreaking new analytics release tracking the long-term price impacts of Cyclone Gabrielle across Hawke's Bay and Auckland. The data exposes a fascinating climate paradox: high-risk homes are retaining immense price resilience purely because their discounted entry points attract intense demand from affordability-squeezed buyers. Check https://www.cotality.com/nz/insights from Tuesday morning.The guys also deliver a full, high-stakes preview of Wednesday's structural Official Cash Rate (OCR) decision. With major trading banks split down the centre, we map out the exact economic crosswinds - including a sharp rebound in business confidence, marginally increasing filled jobs, and a structural potential oversupply of global oil - that will decide the outcome. Plus, Kelvin reports back on his live experience under the roof at Christchurch's brand-new Te Kaha stadium for the All Blacks' season opener.This week we discuss:The June HVI Breakdown: Assessing the national 0.2% monthly dip and the ongoing underperformance of Auckland and Wellington City.The Cyclone Gabrielle Audit: Unpacking the data proving why flood-prone properties hold their values stubbornly against natural hazard warning systems.The Government Insurance Backstop: Why the days of automated state buyouts are ending and what it means for long-term un-insurability.The July OCR Split: Analysing the 3-2 bank economist division and the voting mechanics required to break a three-all committee deadlock.The Green Electrification Shift: How the permanent structural drop in global fossil fuel demand is quietly putting downward pressure on domestic inflation.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected] podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!The underlying data is flashing clear warning signs of economic consolidation. This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson dissect the latest New Zealand Activity Index (NZAC) and the Reserve Bank’s weekly updated Kiwi GDP Nowcast. The metrics reveal a stark economic slowdown in Q2, dropping bank expectations for a July Official Cash Rate (OCR) increase into a decisive holding pattern as major institutions pull back their forecast increases.The structural highlight of the week centres on the newly released Reserve Bank mortgage lending data for May. For the first time in two solid years, year-on-year lending growth has ground to an absolute halt, printing a flat $8.6 billion line. We look past the national figures to uncover the real structural landscape: a massive $1.67 trillion asset baseline backed by just $398 billion in total debt. While an aggregate LVR of 24% suggests immense national stability, we expose the distribution trap masking the reality that one-third of New Zealand households carry 100% of the entire country's mortgage debt burden.This week we discuss:The GDP Proxy Pivot: Why the Reserve Bank's dynamic, weekly updated Kiwi GDP Nowcast is eclipsing the traditional NZAC index as a truer indicator of a flatlining Q2 economy.The Lending Streak Snapped: Dissecting May’s flat $8.6 billion lending print and what it means for forward real estate velocity.The 24% Equity Illusion: Why a $1.67 trillion asset class hides the severe debt concentration weighing exclusively on the mortgaged third of the population.First-Home Buyer Domination: The raw deal metrics proving first-time buyers are actively expanding transaction volumes while movers collapse by 11%.The Landlord Tax Premium: How evolving political rhetoric from Labour and the Green Party regarding interest deductibility is shifting the long-term investor baseline.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected] podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Are you sitting tight in a three-bedroom home waiting for the property market to "improve"? You might be missing a massive strategic window.In this episode of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson unpack the latest "trade-up premium" data. They reveal why a softer housing market has actually made it significantly cheaper to upgrade to a four-bedroom home right now, with value gaps shrinking by up to 12% across major New Zealand regions.The guys also dive into a massive week of economic shifts. Between lower-than-expected Q1 GDP growth (0.8%) and cooling monthly inflation numbers, the previously "guaranteed" July OCR rate hike has suddenly hit a 50/50 standstill. Could the Reserve Bank hold off until September?Plus, we look at why property investors are showing early signs of election nervousness in the upcoming Chart Pack, and celebrate an epic weekend of Kiwi sport - from the Hurricanes' masterclass Super Rugby victory at the Cake Tin to the All Whites' tactical run.This week we discuss:The Shrinking Value Gap: Suburb-level shifts in the 3-to-4-bedroom price premium (and why downturns favour the bold buyer).The Macro Shift: Why 0.8% GDP and falling Q2 CPI projections (down to 4.0%) are giving the RBNZ pause.The Mechanics of the OCR Vote: Dissecting the 3-all split committee and the likelihood of one voter flipping back to a hold.Chart Pack Teaser: First-home buyer resilience vs. shifting investor sentiment ahead of the election.The Sports Wrap: A massive weekend for the Canes, the Black Caps, the Warriors, and the All Whites.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected] podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Welcome to a special regional guest edition of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast. This week, Head of Research Nick Goodall returns to his hometown roots to interview Jemma Scott-Davidson, owner and mortgage advisor at Loan Market. With over 20 years of commercial banking experience before launching her independent advisory firm, Jemma provides an invaluable, boots-on-the-ground temperature check of the winterless north.Moving past the mainstream media's "boom or bust" narratives, Jemma explains why the current environment is actually a return to a "normal" market driven by fundamental life choices. We analyse the distinct activity occurring within the $650,000 to $750,000 sweet spot, expose the pricing standoff affecting properties purchased at the late-2021 peak, and break down the three clear interest rate fixing strategies currently emerging among New Zealand borrowers navigating the post-MPS landscape.This week we discuss:The Whangārei Sweet Spot: Why properties priced between $650,000 and $750,000 are seeing steady, healthy transaction volumes from regular families.The Million-Dollar Value Gap: Navigating the lack of quality stock in the $800,000 to $1,000,000 bracket and why overpriced listings are distorting buyer expectations.The Peak COVID Standoff: Why un-capitulated vendors who bought in late 2021 are stalling market velocity.Three Emerging Fixing Behaviours: 1. The Confident Can-Kickers: Rolling on 6-month fixes to capture short-term savings while waiting for geopolitical oil conflicts to settle. 2. The Long-Term Securers: Locking in 5-year terms to protect fragile household cash flows from further volatility. 3. The Risk Splitters: Tranching debt across 2 and 3-year terms to avoid total structural exposure.Why DTIs are Stalling: Why high bank test rates are capturing debt-to-income limits by default, leaving equity and deposits as the primary hurdles.Innovation in Commercial Lending: Real-world examples of Northland businesses navigating tight cash flows through clever asset diversification and labour hoarding.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected] podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!The structural shift in the New Zealand property market is cementing itself in the data. While the latest Mapping the Market release reveals a highly patchy horizontal flatline across the regions, the newly updated May Buyer Classification data exposes a deep divide in buyer behaviour. Mortgaged multiple property owners (MPOs) have taken a decisive step back in the second quarter, dropping to a 22.4% market share as the compounding realities of tight yields, capital growth re-evaluations, and shifting political polls weigh on investor confidence.This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson break down why first home buyers continue to defy gravity, capturing a near-record 28.5% market share. We also deliver regional deep dives into the shifting demographics of Hamilton, Tauranga, and Dunedin, preview the upcoming Q1 GDP metrics alongside Tuesday’s crucial Selected Price Indexes, and analyse how an economic slowdown across the ditch in Australia could quietly reshape New Zealand's net migration baseline.This week we discuss:The Investor Retraction: Why mortgaged investors have pulled back for two consecutive quarters, hitting a soft 22.4% market share in Q2 so far.First Home Buyers Target Records: Inside the relentless 28.5% market share run and the mechanics driving low-deposit entry pathways.Regional Centre Disruption: Analysing Tauranga’s equity-rich mover surge (33%) and a surprising jump in first-time buyers to 25%.The Dunedin Yield Matrix: Why gross student accommodation yields look attractive, but aging housing stock is widening the gap between gross and net returns.Net Migration Rebound: Tracking the steady climb back to 22,800 annual net arrivals and why high rental listings are keeping a ceiling on structural rent spikes.GDP vs. Selected Price Indexes: Previewing the consensus 1.0% Q1 GDP growth figure and explaining why Tuesday’s monthly inflation data holds the real key to the July OCR decision.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected] podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!The May Cotality Home Value Index (HVI) results are officially in, delivering a perfectly flat 0.0% national movement. While regional variability persists under the surface - with Christchurch nudging up 0.4% and Wellington softening by 0.3% - the broader market continues to track sideways as buyers hold the pricing power but sellers refuse to capitulate. This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson answer a brilliant listener question from Matthew, digging into the data to debunk the mainstream media narrative that a "glut" of townhouses is dragging down the Auckland property market. We also unpack the surprising resilience of the new build sector with building consents climbing to 39,000, dismantle claims that New Zealand has become a "tax haven" for Australian investors, and analyse RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway’s latest hints on short-term inflation.This week we discuss:May HVI National Breakdown: Why a 0.0% national change signals a long, plain-vanilla winter of sideways tracking.The Auckland Townhouse Myth: Breaking down the suburb-level data proving townhouse values are performing similarly to standalone homes (both down 3% annually).Building Consent Resilience: Why the current annualised track of 39,000 consents shows a construction sector vastly more robust than during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC).The Australian "Tax Haven" Headline: Dismantling trans-Tasman media hype regarding stamp duty, bright-line changes, and cross-border tax complexities.Paul Conway’s Inflation Hints: Insights from the RBNZ Chief Economist's recent webinar and what it reveals about the internal vs. external OCR committee split.The 5-Month Election Runway: Anticipating the upcoming structural slowdown as capital gains tax debates re-emerge.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected] podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!The tide has officially turned for mortgage interest rates. Following the Reserve Bank's razor-edge split decision to hold the OCR last week, borrowers are hitting a major structural shift. An estimated 40% of all New Zealand mortgage debt is exposed to repricing in the next six months alone - shifting from a mindset of two years of falling rates straight into a rising rate wall.This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson analyse the macroeconomic consequences of this lag in monetary policy. We break down the newly updated Cotality Sales Volume Forecast Model, which officially strips 10,000 transactions out of our original 2026 projections.Plus, we dissect the internal vs. external board divide at the RBNZ, unpack the Government's council "consent bonus" budget initiative, and preview Thursday's upcoming May Home Value Index (HVI) results.This week we discuss:The Repricing Shock: Why 31% of fixed debt and 10% of floating debt are running directly into higher rates over the next six months.The 2-Year Fix Pivot: Why the mathematical reality of moving from a short-term fix to a 2-year runway means a 0.3% to 0.4% immediate lift in debt-servicing costs.Slashing the 2026 Model: Recalibrating the official housing metrics down to a flat 90,000 transaction ceiling for this year, with a potential slide below 90k in 2027.The Internal vs. External Divide: Analysing Cam Bagrie’s take on why external MPC members are voting for rate hikes while internal RBNZ staff cling to optimistic GDP models.April Mortgage Lending Slowdown: Dissecting the $8 billion lending block and why bank switching and aggressive cashback windows are shutting.Council "Consent Bonuses": Reviewing the Government’s infrastructure financial incentives for councils hitting high density targets.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected] podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!In this special reaction episode, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson unpack the latest RBNZ OCR decision. The rate was held, but only just. The vote was split 3–3, with the Governor casting the deciding vote. This highlights how finely balanced the outlook is.The key message is that rate rises are likely coming. The OCR track has been revised higher. An increase as soon as July now looks probable. Some committee members wanted to hike now. Their view was to act early to limit future inflation risks.Inflation forecasts have been lifted. Headline inflation is expected to rise above 4% in the near term. This is driven by fuel and import costs. Core inflation is easing, however, and longer-term expectations remain stable. This creates uncertainty around how aggressive the RBNZ needs to be.Growth has been downgraded. The recovery is expected to be slower. Unemployment is set to stay elevated for the next 12–18 months.The housing market outlook is weak. House prices are expected to be flat or slightly down. Sales volumes also look subdued. Mortgage rates may rise further, although much has already been priced in.Overall, the OCR is on hold for now. But the balance has shifted. Future increases look increasingly likely.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected] podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!With the Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) landing this Wednesday, the economic data is sending an interesting signal. April's electronic card transactions were 1.3% month-on-month—with fuel spending down 2% despite rising prices. It’s decent evidence that "demand destruction" is actively under way as households fundamentally shift their behaviour.This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson preview the upcoming OCR decision and why Nick is sliding off the fence to join the Kiwibank camp, lowering the probability of a July rate hike to 40%. We also pull apart the latest Monthly Chart Pack data, which reveals a consecutive four-month drop in year-on-year sales volumes, forcing a major downward revision to our 2026 housing transaction forecasts.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected] podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!The Q1 2026 Pain and Gain Report is officially live, revealing the clear signals of a buyer's market. While 88% of property resellers still walked away with a gross profit, the share of properties selling at a loss has ticked up to 12% - driven heavily by short hold periods and a challenging apartment sector.This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson unpack the stark reality of the 4-year median hold period for loss-makers compared to the 10-year safety net for profitable sales. We also look at the April Selected Price Indexes data, discuss Nick’s onstage debate with Kiwibank’s Jarrod Kerr regarding the necessity of a July OCR hike, and track the quiet turnaround in net migration figures.This week we discuss:Q1 Pain and Gain Report: Why gross profits have fallen from a peak of $440,000 down to a median of $285,000.The hold period reality: The mathematical proof that buying at the 2021 peak and selling in 2026 guarantees a tough result.Apartment vulnerability: Why 41% of apartments resold at a loss during the quarter.April price indexes: Understanding why domestic price segments are softening even as diesel and petrol spike.The July OCR debate: Nick outlines the demand destruction argument that suggests the RBNZ should hold fire.Migration & rents: Net migration climbs back to almost 25,000, adding steady structural demand to a highly volatile rental market.Investor anxiety: Anecdotal feedback from Auckland on interest deductibility and long-term cash flow fears.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected] podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!The latest Cotality-Westpac First Home Buyer Report is out, and the data is a clear win for those entering the market. With a 27.5% market share, FHBs are near record levels, but the real story is what they are buying - 77% are securing standalone houses, up from just 70% a few years ago.This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson dive into the devil in the detail of the Q1 labour market stats. Why did unemployment drop to 5.3% despite a loose labour market, and what does the Reserve Bank’s Financial Stability Report (FSR) tell us about the $100 million cashback war of late 2025?This week we discuss:FHB Report Q1: Why FHBs are getting more house for their money and why the average age has dropped to 35.81% LVRs: The Westpac data confirms that low-deposit lending is the engine room for first-time buyers right now.Labour Market Surprise: Analysing the 5.3% unemployment rate and why contained wage growth is actually good news for OCR timing.The FSR Breakdown: The RBNZ’s take on sustainable house prices and the cost of the bank cashback wars.OCR Debate: Nick previews his Devil's Advocate session with Kiwibank’s Jarrod Kerr.Personal Wrap: A shout-out to Sky Sports’ Jeff McTainsh and a victory for the Phoenix Women.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected] podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!The Cotality-Westpac First Home Buyer Report May 2026In this special guest episode Kelvin Davidson is joined by Satish Ranchhod from the Westpac Economics team to discuss the latest co-branded First Home Buyer Report.They cover off the Iran conflict, the implications for NZ's economy, inflation, and interest rates, then what it might all mean for first home buyers.Lately FHBs have remained a dominant force in the property market, accounting for high shares of transactions, and also getting 'more house for their money' - supported by a soft market, plenty of listings, and low deposit lending allowances at the banks.Indeed, Westpac's own data shows that the average LVR has recently gone above 80%, while the average FHB age has dipped a little.Ultimately, it's a continued good news story - and FHBs still have reason for optimism in the coming months too.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected] podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!The April Home Value Index (HVI) results are in, and while the national median technically rose by a modest 0.1%, the broader picture is one of a flattening market. This week, Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson peel back the layers on the regional divide - why are Auckland and Wellington softening while Christchurch and Invercargill continue to climb?We also dive into a surprising dose of 'hopium' from the March economic data. With filled jobs up 0.3% and the NZ Activity Index (NZAC) hitting its fastest growth in over three years, we ask if the economy is showing more resilience than expected, or if these are simply lagging indicators of a pre-conflict world.This week, we discuss:April HVI results: The national median is up 0.1%, but regional variability is the real story.The regional divide: Why Auckland’s supply pipeline and Wellington’s 'vibe' shift are weighing on values compared to the farming-backed strength of the south.March economic resilience: Filled jobs grew by 0.3%, and the NZAC rose 3.2% - could Q1 GDP be stronger than the RBNZ expects?Labour market preview: Why we expect the unemployment rate to hold steady at 5.4% this week.RBNZ watch: A preview of Wednesday’s Financial Stability Review (FSR) and the ongoing quest for transparency.First home buyer report: A teaser for our upcoming release with Westpac, including surprising data on buyer ages.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email [email protected] or [email protected] podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.