Murphy's Market Minute | April 10, 2026

Markets rebounded this week following a sharp drop in oil prices tied to a temporary ceasefire in the Middle East. While the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all pushed higher, the move was largely driven by relief that a worst-case geopolitical scenario may be avoided—at least for now. On the economic side, inflation data came in hotter than expected, with headline CPI rising to 3.3% year-over-year. However, this increase was driven almost entirely by a spike in energy prices, particularly gasoline. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, remained relatively stable, reinforcing the idea that broader inflation pressures are still under control. Oil remains the key variable. After briefly spiking above $110 earlier in the week amid escalating tensions, prices pulled back sharply following the ceasefire announcement but remain elevated and volatile. With the Strait of Hormuz still a point of concern for global supply, energy markets are likely to remain sensitive to headlines. Overall, the market is currently operating under the assumption that inflation will ease if oil stabilizes and that economic fundamentals remain intact. However, this environment remains highly dependent on geopolitical developments, and any renewed escalation could quickly reverse recent gains.