The Elliot Omanson Show

The U.S. labor market remained surprisingly strong this week, with employers adding 172,000 jobs in May compared to expectations of just 80,000. Wage growth also remained elevated, reinforcing the idea that the economy continues to show resilience despite higher interest rates. While strong employment is generally positive, it also reduces the likelihood of near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts, which contributed to some market volatility following the report. Despite Friday's pullback, major indexes remain near all-time highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average recently surpassed 51,000, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq continue to trade within striking distance of record levels. Oil prices remain elevated, and cryptocurrency markets experienced a sharp decline this week, with Bitcoin falling back into the $60,000 range. In addition to our market update, we're excited to share a preview of OWLFI's new client portal. Designed to simplify your financial life, the platform brings together investment accounts, insurance policies, banking relationships, appointments, market updates, estate planning resources, and more in one centralized location. The portal will be rolled out incrementally, and clients interested in early access are encouraged to contact our team. As always, thank you for trusting OWLFI with your financial future. If you have questions about the markets, your plan, or the new client portal, we're here to help.

Chris Smith has officially joined OWLFI as our new Chief Operating Officer (COO). In this conversation, Elliot sits down with Chris to discuss his background, from military deployments in Iraq to building and scaling multi-million-dollar businesses. They also share why now was the right time for Chris to join the firm and how his expertise in systems, processes, and organizational growth will help strengthen the client experience for years to come. Plus, Elliot gives a brief preview of this week's Murphy's Market Minute, including recent ADP jobs data and what rising wages could mean for the economy. We hope you'll join us in welcoming Chris to the OWLFI family.

What actually happens to your money when you die? Most people procrastinate estate planning — and many make costly mistakes that create family conflict, probate headaches, unnecessary legal fees, or even send assets to the wrong person. In this episode, Elliot Omanson and Nathaniel Vossman break down estate planning in plain English: wills, trusts, probate, beneficiary designations, powers of attorney, healthcare directives, and the biggest mistakes families make. They also cover why most people may not need a trust, how outdated beneficiaries can derail your wishes, and the emotional side of inheritance that can quietly tear families apart. If you want to avoid probate, protect your family, and make sure your assets go where you actually intend, this conversation is a must-watch. Whether you’re married, divorced, have kids, stepchildren, or significant retirement assets, estate planning is something you can’t afford to ignore. 📅 Book a time to meet with Elliot: https://savvycal.com/owlfi/elliot

If you’re selling a business, highly appreciated real estate, cryptocurrency, or another major asset, capital gains taxes could take a massive portion of your wealth. In this episode, Elliot Omanson and Nathaniel Vossman explain how properly structured trusts may help defer capital gains taxes, improve flexibility, and potentially help you keep more of what you’ve earned. The conversation covers business sales, appreciated real estate, installment sale concepts, constructive receipt, tax timing, and why some high-net-worth families structure liquidity events differently than most people. Before selling a business, property, or other appreciated asset, this is a strategy worth understanding. 📅 Book a time to meet with Elliot: https://savvycal.com/owlfi/elliot

U.S. stocks moved higher this week, supported by a stronger-than-expected April employment report. The economy added 115,000 nonfarm payrolls — well above consensus expectations near 55,000 — while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%. Wage growth also came in softer than expected, with average hourly earnings rising 0.2% for the month and 3.6% year-over-year. Cooler wage growth is viewed positively by markets because it reduces the risk of labor costs contributing to persistent inflation pressures. Job gains were concentrated in healthcare, transportation and warehousing, and construction, while federal government employment continued to decline. Earlier in the week, the ISM Services PMI for April came in at 53.6%, marking the 22nd consecutive month of expansion in the services sector. However, investors were more focused on the Prices Paid component, which remained elevated at 70.7% — a four-year high — signaling that service-sector inflation pressures remain persistent. Since services account for roughly 70% of U.S. economic activity, sticky services inflation remains one of the primary obstacles preventing the Federal Reserve from signaling imminent rate cuts. Consumer sentiment continued to weaken as well. The University of Michigan’s preliminary May sentiment reading fell to 48.2 from April’s 49.8 reading, remaining among the lowest levels on record. Higher energy costs and broader economic uncertainty continue to weigh on household confidence, even as long-term inflation expectations remain relatively stable.

Social Security may be one of the largest retirement assets most Americans will ever own — yet many people make claiming decisions without fully understanding the long-term consequences. In this educational discussion, Elliot Omanson and Nathaniel Vossman break down how Social Security actually works, including when to claim benefits, how delaying impacts retirement income, how Social Security is taxed, why spousal coordination matters, and how one decision can impact retirement income for decades. The conversation covers survivor benefits, delayed retirement credits, earnings limits while still working, longevity planning, Roth conversion considerations, taxation thresholds, and why Social Security should be treated like a major financial asset — not just a monthly check. Book a time to meet with Elliot to discuss Social Security, retirement planning, or your overall financial strategy: https://savvycal.com/owlfi/elliot

Growth vs dividend stocks is one of the biggest debates in investing — especially when it comes to generating income. Most investors assume dividends are the best way to create income, but that’s not necessarily true. In this episode, we break down how dividend income actually works, why it’s often misunderstood, and how you can create income by selling shares instead. We also walk through the tax differences between dividends and capital gains, and why the type of account you use (taxable vs retirement accounts) can completely change the outcome. If you’ve ever wondered whether you really need dividend stocks to generate income, this will change how you think about building your portfolio. If you'd like a personalized retirement analysis, reach out to our team. Get a personalized retirement analysis: https://www.owlfi.com/contact

Most people assume capital gains taxes are unavoidable — but in reality, you can legally reduce them to 0% if you structure your income correctly. In this episode, we break down how capital gains are taxed, why your income (not your portfolio size) determines your rate, and how retirees can use smart strategies to minimize taxes over time. From capital gains harvesting to tax loss harvesting and income timing, this is how you keep more of what you’ve earned. The biggest takeaway: retirement isn’t about how much you have — it’s about how efficiently you use it. If you'd like a personalized retirement analysis, reach out to our team. Get a personalized retirement analysis: https://www.owlfi.com/contact

The S&P 500 finished the week at a record 7,126, the Nasdaq posted its 13th consecutive winning session — its longest streak since 1992 — and the Russell 2000 also closed at a fresh all-time high. The Dow gained sharply on the week but did not reach record territory. While Q1 earnings have been solid — particularly from large-cap banks — this week's move was driven more by geopolitics than fundamentals. Progress toward a U.S.-Iran agreement and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz led to a sharp decline in oil prices, easing immediate inflation pressure. This was the most important macro development of the week, as energy remains one of the key drivers of inflation expectations. Economic data continues to show resilience. Jobless claims came in at 207,000, reinforcing a stable labor market. However, consumer sentiment fell to a record low in April, highlighting a growing disconnect between strong markets and weaker consumer confidence. At their last meeting in March, the Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% and continues to signal one rate cut expected in the second half of 2026. Jerome Powell's term expires in May, with Kevin Warsh widely expected to succeed him — a transition worth monitoring for any potential shift in policy tone.

Markets rebounded this week following a sharp drop in oil prices tied to a temporary ceasefire in the Middle East. While the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all pushed higher, the move was largely driven by relief that a worst-case geopolitical scenario may be avoided—at least for now. On the economic side, inflation data came in hotter than expected, with headline CPI rising to 3.3% year-over-year. However, this increase was driven almost entirely by a spike in energy prices, particularly gasoline. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, remained relatively stable, reinforcing the idea that broader inflation pressures are still under control. Oil remains the key variable. After briefly spiking above $110 earlier in the week amid escalating tensions, prices pulled back sharply following the ceasefire announcement but remain elevated and volatile. With the Strait of Hormuz still a point of concern for global supply, energy markets are likely to remain sensitive to headlines. Overall, the market is currently operating under the assumption that inflation will ease if oil stabilizes and that economic fundamentals remain intact. However, this environment remains highly dependent on geopolitical developments, and any renewed escalation could quickly reverse recent gains.

How much money do you actually need to retire? The truth is, there is no “magic number” — and most people get this wrong. In this episode, we break down why traditional retirement advice often fails and what actually determines how much you need. We cover the biggest factors that impact your retirement plan, including spending habits, lifestyle expectations, taxes, healthcare costs, and inflation. You’ll also learn why relying on rules like the 4% rule can be dangerous, how retirement has shifted from pensions to self-funded income, and why taxes are often the biggest expense people overlook. This episode also dives into how Social Security fits into your plan, why expenses don’t disappear in retirement, and how strategies like Roth accounts can significantly increase your after-tax income. If you want a clearer, more realistic framework for retirement — this is it. If you'd like a personalized retirement analysis, reach out to our team. Get a personalized retirement analysis: https://www.owlfi.com/contact

Most high earners overpay taxes. Here’s how they fix it. High-income earners are often told there’s nothing they can do to meaningfully reduce their tax bill. That’s not entirely true. In this episode, Elliot sits down with Steve Blackwell, CEO of Invito Energy Partners, to break down how oil & gas investments are used as a tax strategy to offset ordinary income. They explain how intangible drilling costs (IDC) and bonus depreciation work, why these deductions have existed in the tax code for over 100 years, and how they can be used alongside strategies like Roth conversions. They also explain why many investors lose money in oil & gas — and how to avoid those mistakes. If you’re a high earner looking for ways to reduce taxes or better understand advanced tax strategies, this is a complete breakdown. If you'd like a personalized retirement analysis, reach out to our team. Link to the OWLFI website with our contact info: https://www.owlfi.com/contact

What really happens financially after losing a spouse? The “widow’s penalty” is one of the most overlooked risks in retirement—and it can result in higher taxes, lower income, and less flexibility, all at the worst possible time. In this episode, we break down why a surviving spouse can end up paying more in taxes despite earning less income. From losing a Social Security benefit to being pushed into higher single tax brackets, the financial impact stacks quickly. We also cover how required minimum distributions (RMDs) and Social Security taxation can compound the problem, along with key estate planning mistakes that can make things even worse. This isn’t just about taxes—it’s about being prepared. Proper planning, correct beneficiary designations, and having a clear financial structure in place can dramatically reduce the impact of this “widow’s shock.” If you'd like a personalized retirement analysis, reach out to our team. Link to the OWLFI website with our contact info: https://www.owlfi.com/contact

Why do retirement plans fail, even for people who saved diligently for years? In this episode, Elliot Omanson and Nathaniel Vossman break down the biggest reasons retirement plans fall apart, including overspending, poor tax planning, panic selling, bad withdrawal timing, inflation, healthcare costs, and being too conservative with investments. They also explain how emotions can wreck a financial plan, why taxes can become one of the biggest expenses in retirement, how RMDs and Social Security taxation create hidden problems, and what people should focus on to improve their odds of long-term success. If you want a smarter retirement strategy and want to avoid the most common mistakes, this episode is for you. If you'd like a personalized retirement analysis, reach out to our team. Link to the OWLFI website with our contact info: https://www.owlfi.com/contact

The week’s key focus was inflation. February’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% month-over-month and 2.4% year-over-year, with Core CPI up 0.2% MoM and 2.5% YoY. The Fed’s preferred gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index released today, increased 0.3% MoM and 2.8% YoY, while Core PCE rose to 3.1% YoY. These readings were broadly in line with expectations and suggest inflation continues moderating toward levels consistent with the Fed’s patient approach to interest rates. Economic growth showed some softness, with fourth-quarter GDP revised lower to +0.7% annualized. That said, consumer spending and personal income both increased 0.4%, highlighting resilient household demand. The labor market also remains stable, with initial jobless claims at 213,000 and job openings holding elevated at 6.9 million. Despite encouraging inflation data, equity markets experienced volatility during the week driven by geopolitical risks in the Middle East and rising oil prices. Markets attempted a rebound following the PCE release but ultimately finished the session lower, leaving the major indices modestly down week-over-week compared to last Friday’s close (March 6) after earlier declines tied to energy costs and global tensions.

CNN’s Jake Tapper brought on an Iranian activist expecting criticism of Trump’s actions toward Iran — but the interview completely backfired. Instead of attacking Trump or the U.S., the activist explained why many Iranians actually hope the regime is finally removed. In this Elliot Omanson Show short, Elliot reacts to the moment the narrative collapsed on live television. When Tapper tried to frame U.S. and Israeli actions as turning the Iranian people against America, the activist delivered a powerful response about what life under the Ayatollah’s regime has really been like — and why many Iranians see the current moment very differently than Western media portrays. The exchange exposes a bigger issue with mainstream media coverage: the gap between the story being pushed on television and what people inside these regimes actually experience.

The 60/40 portfolio and the 4% rule have long been considered the standard formula for retirement planning. But do these strategies still work in today’s market environment? In this educational video, Elliot and Nathaniel explain how the traditional 60% stocks / 40% bonds portfolio structure became the industry standard and why the famous 4% withdrawal rule gained popularity after the Trinity Study and the research of William Bengen in the 1990s. We also break down the major risks retirees face today, including sequence of returns, bond yields, inflation, and longevity. Finally, Elliot introduces an alternative framework that organizes retirement investments based on time horizons instead of relying solely on a fixed 60/40 allocation. If you'd like a personalized retirement analysis, reach out to our team. Link to the OWLFI website with our contact info: https://www.owlfi.com/contact

Iran’s leaders have repeatedly called for Israel to be “wiped off the map.” Is it political rhetoric — or a real threat? As Iran advances its nuclear capabilities, the stakes are rising fast. In this episode of The Elliot Omanson Show, Elliot shares his perspective on Israel’s military strategy, the history of modern warfare, failed nuclear negotiations, and the difference between bureaucratic diplomacy and real-world dealmaking. Drawing from his experience serving overseas in the U.S. military, he explains why he believes the stakes are higher than most commentators admit. This episode was filmed prior to the recent U.S. strike against Iranian leadership, but the strategic questions discussed remain highly relevant.

The main data release this week was Producer Price Index (PPI), which rose 0.5% versus expectations of 0.3%. Year-over-year PPI is now 2.9%, continuing its broader cooling trend despite the monthly bump. Mortgage rates dipped below 6% for the first time in over three years, with the 30-year fixed rate hovering around 6%. Some qualified borrowers are seeing mid-5% rates, though typically with points. Overall, rates are stabilizing. Jobless claims remained in line with expectations and had minimal market impact. Markets are largely flat year-to-date. The S&P 500 and Dow are modestly positive, small caps are outperforming, and large-cap tech is slightly negative — signaling rotation rather than broad weakness. Historically, similar early-year setups have often led to positive full-year outcomes, though we continue monitoring closely. Tariff adjustments and geopolitical headlines (including Iran developments) have not meaningfully moved markets so far. We are preparing to launch our upgraded client portal, designed to centralize your financial accounts, planning tools, estate platform, and communication hub in one streamlined dashboard. More details coming soon.

Trump just delivered the longest State of the Union in modern history — nearly two hours — and it may have been the most strategically calculated speech of his presidency. In this episode of The Elliot Omanson Show, Elliot breaks down what stood out, from the economic messaging and “America First” framing to the direct callouts of Democrats during the speech. He explains why he believes this address was designed as a rallying cry ahead of the midterms, how it sets up future campaign ads, and what it signals about the political battles still ahead — including the possibility of another impeachment fight.

Estate planning shouldn’t sit in a drawer collecting dust. In this video, Elliot explains how we’re modernizing the estate planning process at OWLFI using the Vanilla platform and integrating it directly into the broader financial plan. Vanilla allows trusts, wills, powers of attorney, and medical directives to be created or restated inside a clean digital system that actually maps out how assets flow. Instead of just reading legal documents, you can see how everything connects. The platform also identifies potential duplication issues, keeps documents aligned with current state laws, and makes ongoing updates simple and efficient. If you already have an existing trust or will, it can be uploaded, reviewed, and restated under today’s regulations. From there, everything integrates into OWLFI Navigator so estate planning, tax planning, and income strategy work together in one coordinated system. If you’d like to learn more or get started, reach out to our office and we’ll walk you through the process via Zoom or in person.

Social Security taxes are one of the most misunderstood parts of retirement planning — especially when it comes to how much of your benefits can actually become taxable. In this episode, we break down how Social Security is taxed at the federal level, why up to 85% of your benefits can be included as taxable income, and how the provisional income calculation determines what you owe. We explain how IRA withdrawals, pensions, and Required Minimum Distributions can unexpectedly increase taxes through the so-called “tax torpedo,” and why strategic planning matters. We also discuss Roth conversions, withdrawal sequencing, Qualified Charitable Distributions, recent state tax changes, and the long-term funding outlook for Social Security — and how all of it ties into building a more tax-efficient retirement strategy. 📩 If you'd like a personalized Roth conversion analysis, reach out to our team. Link to the OWLFI website with our contact info: https://www.owlfi.com/contact

Elliot is introducing his brother, Glen Omanson of United Team Tax, who will now provide individual tax preparation and proactive, year-round tax planning for OWLFI clients as part of your ongoing relationship with the firm. Glen has been in the financial services industry since 2009 and holds the IRS's highest credential, Enrolled Agent (EA). His expertise focuses exclusively on individual taxation. Throughout his career—including time at institutions such as JP Morgan and Wells Fargo—he saw firsthand how investment advice was often given without proper tax coordination. His approach is different: he works proactively with clients to evaluate the tax impact of financial decisions before they are made, with the goal of reducing long-term tax liability and avoiding costly surprises. This update replaces the previous $100 monthly service fee and integrates individual tax preparation directly into our service model for clients with standard individual returns. For those with more complex needs—such as business entities, extensive real estate holdings, oil and gas investments, trusts, or corporate returns—we will continue coordinating with specialized professionals in those areas. To get started, Glen will typically request a copy of your 2024 tax return for review and comparison. From there, you can upload your 2025 documents through a secure online portal. Communication is simple and flexible, whether through the portal, email, text, or Zoom meetings. Everything is designed to be organized, efficient, and seamless.

U.S. stocks are positive for the week with the major indices in the green as of Friday, as investors digested mixed economic data and a notable legal development on trade policy. The Supreme Court struck down broad tariff authority in a ruling this week, reducing the risk of sweeping new trade measures and providing a modest boost to investor sentiment. On the economic front, fourth-quarter GDP was revised to 1.4% annualized, sharply below the prior quarter’s 4.4% pace and under expectations near 2.5–2.8%, underscoring moderating economic momentum. Inflation data came in firmer than forecast. The PCE price index rose 0.4% month-over-month in December, above expectations of 0.3%, while Core PCE also increased 0.4%, bringing the year-over-year core rate to 3.0% — still well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Persistent inflation continues to complicate the timeline for potential rate cuts. Labor market data remained solid, with initial jobless claims at 206,000 for the week ended February 14, below expectations and indicative of ongoing employment strength. Industrial production rose 0.7% in January, beating forecasts, and February flash PMIs remained in expansion territory, with manufacturing at 51.2 and services at 52.3, signaling continued, though modest, economic activity. Taken together, the data reflect an economy that is cooling but not contracting. Markets have responded positively this week as trade uncertainty eased and economic data suggested resilience, though inflation remains high enough to keep the Federal Reserve cautious.

This week’s focus centered on the January employment report and the latest inflation data, both of which play a critical role in shaping Federal Reserve policy expectations. The labor market remains stable. The economy added 130,000 jobs, well above expectations, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%. Average hourly wages rose 0.4% month over month and are up 3.7% year over year, signaling continued strength without clear signs of overheating. A steady employment environment supports ongoing economic expansion and reduces immediate pressure on the Federal Reserve to ease policy. Inflation data showed continued but gradual progress. Headline CPI increased 0.2% for the month, bringing year-over-year inflation down to 2.4%. Core CPI rose 0.3% month over month and stands at 2.5% year over year, still slightly above the Fed’s 2% target. While the overall trend remains constructive, the data does not yet justify an accelerated shift toward rate cuts. Adding broader context, recent GDP growth came in at a strong 4.4% annualized rate, reinforcing the strength of consumer spending and overall economic activity. With growth solid, employment steady, and inflation moderating but not fully cooled, the Federal Reserve has flexibility to remain patient. Following this week’s data, expectations for near-term rate cuts eased slightly. The Fed’s most recent projections suggest roughly one rate reduction later this year and modest easing into 2026, but the timing will remain dependent on continued progress in inflation. Markets reacted cautiously, with major indices finishing lower from last Friday’s close as investors recalibrated rate expectations rather than responding to economic weakness.

California taxes just hit the Super Bowl — and Sam Darnold’s bill shocked everyone. After spending eight “duty days” in California leading up to the Super Bowl, Darnold reportedly owes roughly $249,000 in state income taxes — more than the $178,000 Super Bowl bonus paid to players on the winning team. In this episode, we break down how the NFL “duty day” tax formula works, why California’s 13.3% top rate matters, how Washington’s zero state income tax plays into this, and what this means for athletes choosing where to sign. We also zoom out into tax incidence, corporate taxes, and how state tax policy influences behavior — whether you’re an NFL quarterback or a business owner.

Equity markets experienced early-week pressure, concentrated in large-cap technology, as investors assessed elevated AI-related capital spending and its potential impact on margins and growth durability. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq weakened mid-week amid uneven sector performance, while small-cap stocks showed relative resilience as the week progressed. Markets stabilized toward week’s end as selling pressure eased and participation broadened modestly, allowing major indexes to recover from intra-week lows. The Russell 2000 outperformed broader benchmarks for the week, reflecting continued rotation away from mega-cap growth and toward more economically sensitive areas. On the economic front, the ISM Manufacturing PMI for January rose to 52.6, returning to expansion territory for the first time in a year and exceeding expectations. Strength in new orders and production pointed to improving activity following a prolonged period of contraction. Labor data suggested gradual cooling rather than deterioration. December job openings declined to approximately 6.5 million, marking a multi-year low and indicating softer hiring demand. Initial jobless claims increased to 231,000 but remain within a range consistent with a historically stable labor market. Investors continue to monitor upcoming labor reports for further confirmation of trend direction. Treasury yields remained elevated overall, though they eased modestly later in the week as equity markets stabilized. Rate expectations continue to reflect a cautious Federal Reserve stance, with limited near-term policy easing currently priced in.

Roth conversions could be the most important retirement tax strategy most investors ignore. In this educational breakdown, we explain how Roth accounts work, why conversions matter, and how they can help you avoid Social Security taxation, IRMAA Medicare surcharges, and unnecessary tax bracket jumps in retirement. If you have an IRA, 401(k), or brokerage account, this strategy could significantly impact your retirement taxes. We cover the difference between tax-deferred accounts, brokerage accounts, and Roth accounts — and why the Roth may be the most powerful bucket of money you can own. 📩 If you'd like a personalized Roth conversion analysis, reach out to our team. Link to the OWLFI website with our contact info: https://www.owlfi.com/contact

Nearly 40% of Stanford undergraduates now claim disability accommodations — not because they can’t function, but because the system rewards it. In this episode of The Elliot Omanson Show, we break down a shocking article exposing how elite universities incentivize students to identify as “disabled” to gain advantages like single dorms, extra time on exams, and academic exemptions. What starts on campus doesn’t stop there — it follows students into adulthood, shaping identity, entitlement, and dependency. We also connect this trend to broader government systems that reward victimhood, drawing parallels to military disability abuse, Ivy League double standards, and how institutions create winners and losers by design. This isn’t compassion — it’s conditioning.

In emotionally charged police encounters, behavior matters more than politics, race, or identity. In this episode, I share a firsthand experience from a political rally that shows why. I share a firsthand encounter at a political rally where my family and I were threatened, how law enforcement responded, and why the outcome had nothing to do with politics, race, or identity—and everything to do with behavior, choices, and de-escalation in a high-stress situation. This isn’t about defending force or dismissing tragedy. It’s about personal responsibility, how quickly situations can escalate, and why emotionally charged environments make already difficult jobs even harder. You don’t have to agree with me—but I think these are conversations worth having honestly, without slogans or shouting.

A self-described “millionaire” was recently interviewed by Business Insider, and his argument for wealth taxes might be one of the most out-of-touch takes you’ll hear all year. In this episode of The Elliot Omanson Show, Elliot breaks down an interview with a Silicon Valley figure who claims no one needs more than $30 million, argues for a 50% annual tax on wealth above that level, and insists that financial success is mostly a matter of luck — despite never having built, scaled, or funded a real business himself. The episode walks through why this worldview collapses under even basic scrutiny. Massive companies like Uber, Tesla, and SpaceX required billions in capital and years of losses before becoming viable. Under the policies being proposed, companies like these would never exist, innovation would stall, and risk-taking would be punished out of the economy. This isn’t a debate about generosity or empathy. It’s about what happens when people who’ve never made payroll, raised capital, or taken real entrepreneurial risk are elevated as moral authorities on wealth, fairness, and economic policy. Link to the Business Insider article referenced: https://www.businessinsider.com/california-millionaire-support-billionaire-wealth-tax-higher-taxation-2026-1

Minnesota’s largest fraud case is being presented to the public in a very specific way — and it raises serious questions about modern journalism. In this episode of The Elliot Omanson Show, Elliot breaks down a recent CBS News article covering Minnesota’s biggest fraud scandal and explains how media narratives are shaped, what facts are emphasized, and what details are quietly buried further down the page. While headlines focus heavily on one individual, court records and prosecution data reveal a much broader story that directly contradicts the framing most readers see first. This episode examines how selective storytelling influences public perception, why key context is often omitted upfront, and how narrative-driven reporting distorts complex issues. The goal here isn’t to defend anyone — it’s to look at the facts, read past the headline, and question how stories are being told.

We’re proud to share Backseat Ballers, a series we’ve been working on that features unscripted conversations with business owners and entrepreneurs. These discussions highlight the real lives behind business ownership — including personal struggles, life experiences, and the ways entrepreneurs overcome adversity. There’s no market commentary in this podcast — just authentic insight into the purpose behind the series and the non-profit we partner with, The I AM Foundation. If you haven’t had a chance to watch yet, we think you’ll enjoy this behind-the-scenes perspective.

Trump floated the idea of acquiring Greenland — and most Americans instantly dismissed it as absurd. But that reaction reveals a much bigger issue: we don’t understand U.S. history, geopolitics, or how America became a global power. In this episode of The Elliot Omanson Show, Elliot breaks down America’s long history of territorial acquisitions — from Alaska and the Louisiana Purchase to the U.S. Virgin Islands — and explains why leverage, tariffs, and even military pressure have always been part of serious negotiations. Whether you agree or disagree, this conversation challenges the emotional, surface-level takes dominating the media narrative.

Don Lemon claims the moral high ground as a journalist — but his actions tell a very different story. In this episode of The Elliot Omanson Show, Elliot breaks down the irony of Don Lemon interrupting a church service to confront a pastor, while ICE agents in Minnesota quietly waited until a restaurant closed before making arrests. One group showed restraint. One didn’t. The comparison is impossible to ignore. This isn’t about politics — it’s about basic human decency, respect, and boundaries, and who actually practiced them.

The shooting death of Renee Good sparked national outrage — but Part 2 of this discussion focuses on something deeper: the double standards shaping the media narrative around ICE, law enforcement, and constitutional rights. In this episode, I break down why recording public officials is celebrated as “accountability” in some cases — and suddenly labeled unethical, racist, or invasive when it doesn’t fit the preferred narrative. If public recording is a First Amendment right, it should apply consistently, not selectively. I also address the backlash over officials defending due process, the rush to discredit investigations before facts are known, and why demands for “coordination” with agencies like ICE ignore years of political hostility, leaks, and bad-faith attacks. Accountability requires trust — and trust can’t exist when principles are applied based on convenience. This isn’t about defending or condemning anyone involved in the Renee Good case. It’s about consistency, accountability, and whether we actually mean what we say when we talk about rights.

U.S. equity markets finished the week modestly higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq holding near record levels. A notable development was continued rotation beneath the surface, as small-caps (Russell 2000) outperformed and cyclical and value-oriented sectors gained relative strength. Mega-cap technology remained supportive, aided by ongoing AI enthusiasm and developments showcased at CES 2026, but leadership is beginning to broaden beyond the largest names. The most important macro developments came from labor market data, which suggested a resilient but gradually cooling economy. Initial jobless claims for the week ending January 3 rose modestly to 208,000, remaining low by historical standards and indicating layoffs are still contained. December’s nonfarm payrolls showed job growth of approximately 50,000, below expectations, with prior months revised lower. The unemployment rate unexpectedly dipped to 4.4%, while average hourly earnings increased 0.3% month over month, keeping wage growth steady but not accelerating. Taken together, the data continues to support a “low-hire, low-fire” environment. The labor market remains stable, but softer hiring reduces pressure on the Federal Reserve to rush toward rate cuts. Bond markets reflected this balance. Treasury yields edged modestly higher, with the 10-year yield hovering around 4.2%. Markets continue to price in a higher-for-longer rate environment, with expectations centered on only one or two cuts later in 2026 and little anticipation of near-term action. This backdrop has been supportive for financials, while remaining a headwind for more rate-sensitive assets. Early corporate commentary and earnings previews suggested steady demand in select areas, though management teams remain cautious given uneven growth and lingering cost pressures. Commodity markets were relatively calm, with industrial metals holding steady alongside global growth expectations.

I’m conservative. I’ve voted for Donald Trump three times. I support law enforcement, ICE, and strong immigration enforcement. But what happened to Renée Nicole Macklin Good, a 37-year-old U.S. citizen and mother of three who was fatally shot by a U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agent in Minneapolis, raises a much bigger issue that both sides are missing. This video isn’t an attack on police, and it isn’t an emotional reaction. It’s a principled argument about individual rights, government power, and why the use of deadly force against a U.S. citizen should always be an absolute last resort when alternatives exist. I explain why I oppose the death penalty, police militarization, and policy choices that allow preventable situations to escalate into lethal outcomes. Supporting law enforcement does not mean defending every action, especially when procedural decisions create unnecessary risk to human life. If we want better outcomes, the focus should be on laws, rules of engagement, and operational standards that prevent these situations from happening in the first place, not on blindly choosing sides after the fact.

People who escaped socialism don’t debate it — they lived it. In this episode of The Elliot Omanson Show, Elliot sits down with Brahian Ramon, a pastor originally from the Dominican Republic, to discuss why immigrants from Venezuela, Cuba, Nicaragua, and across Latin America overwhelmingly reject collectivism and support Donald Trump. Drawing on firsthand experiences and stories from friends and family who lived under socialist and authoritarian regimes, Brahian explains how Venezuela collapsed after government control of industry, why Cuba never recovered under collectivism, and how the Dominican Republic’s own history with dictatorship and socialism ultimately shaped its path toward democracy and free markets. The conversation explores why immigrants place such a high value on individual freedom, personal responsibility, and capitalism, and why many are baffled by Americans embracing ideas they risked everything to escape. Rather than abstract political theory, this discussion centers on real consequences — lost opportunity, inflation, forced dependence, and elite rulers thriving while everyday people suffer. This episode offers an unfiltered immigrant perspective on socialism, capitalism, and American politics that rarely appears in mainstream media.

This week delivered a heavy slate of economic data, highlighted by key employment and inflation reports. The November employment report came in above expectations, with the U.S. economy adding 64,000 jobs. While this was a positive surprise, it continues to reflect a broader slowdown in hiring. The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, its highest level since September 2021, while wage growth softened, with average hourly earnings increasing just 0.1%, below expectations. Additional labor data released Thursday showed initial jobless claims of 224,000, in line with forecasts, reinforcing the view of a cooling—but still stable—labor market. Inflation data was the main market driver this week. Headline CPI fell to 2.7% and core CPI declined to 2.6%, its lowest level since early 2021. Part of this drop reflects a temporary data issue caused by the government shutdown, which delayed the collection of some housing prices and made inflation appear cooler than it truly is. Even so, the overall trend remains favorable, supporting stocks and giving the Federal Reserve more flexibility later this year if inflation continues to ease. Despite easing inflation and a modest rise in unemployment, markets are not expecting a near-term rate cut. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut at the Fed’s January meeting currently stands at 19.9%. Markets are extending Thursday’s rally into Friday, though stocks remain roughly flat on the week, as early-week weakness offset recent gains.

This week, Elliot shares one of the most surreal experiences of his life: starting the week inside Mar-a-Lago as a guest of Glenn Beck, and ending it in New York City surrounded by left-wing influencers, LGBTQ leaders, intelligence officials, and cultural activists. Two worlds that never mix — and Elliot walked straight through both. At Mar-a-Lago, Elliot attended the American Journey Experience fundraiser and was invited into Glenn Beck’s private collection, which includes the original rough draft of the U.S. Constitution, FDR’s wheelchair, the flag flown over Normandy, and countless artifacts that most museums don’t even have access to. It’s one of the largest private American history collections in existence, and seeing it up close offers a perspective few people ever get. Less than a day later, Elliot was on the opposite end of the political spectrum at a major influencer conference in Manhattan. The room was filled with LGBTQ organizers, former intelligence officers, human-rights leaders, content creators, and activists who see the world through a completely different lens. What was surprising isn’t how different the groups were — but how similar their fears, assumptions, and motivations turned out to be. Elliot breaks down why both sides believe the other is an existential threat, how political rhetoric convinces people that disagreement equals death, and why this mindset is tearing the country apart. He also shares moments of genuine connection, humor, and unexpected conversations that show how much common ground actually exists when people stop arguing and start listening. This is an honest, unfiltered look at America’s cultural divide from someone who stepped directly into both realities in the same week. If you want political commentary grounded in real experiences — not headlines — this episode delivers.

We’re proud to feature Rocky Malloy on this week’s Murphy’s Market Minute. Rocky is a former U.S. Merchant Marine Commander whose life was transformed after a series of extraordinary, near-death experiences led him to faith. Today, he leads the National School Chaplain Association, bringing chaplaincy, hope, and spiritual support to students across the U.S. and around the world. Rocky is joining us in Kansas City this week—and he’ll also be starring in our newest episode of Backseat Ballers. Markets are heading into the holiday on a strong note, with all three major indices firmly in the green today. It’s been an impressive stretch overall, capped by a standout performance from the Nasdaq, which is up nearly 4.5% for the week. The rally is fueled by rising optimism around a December rate cut. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, investors now assign an 82.9% probability to a 25 bps cut at the December 10 FOMC meeting—up sharply from just 30.1% last week. On the economic front, inflation continues to cool. PPI rose 0.3% MoM in line with expectations, while Core PPI came in at a softer 0.1% versus the 0.3% forecast—further evidence of disinflation taking hold. Consumer sentiment, however, weakened sharply. Consumer confidence fell to 88.7, well below expectations and the lowest reading since April. At the same time, initial jobless claims dropped to 216,000, the lowest since April and below the 225,000 estimate—signaling continued strength in the labor market. After a strong Q3 earnings season and rising expectations for rate cuts, we remain constructive on equities heading into year-end and into 2026. Short-term volatility is always possible, but the broader outlook continues to lean positive.

Six Democratic veterans released a video urging troops to “refuse illegal orders” — despite the fact that no such orders are being issued. At the same time, each of them obeyed every order during the Iraq War, a conflict they now describe as unjust, mistaken, or “built on lies.” This breakdown examines that contradiction and why the message doesn’t line up with their own record in uniform.

Markets tumbled this week, with all three major indices sliding sharply. The last—and largest—of the Magnificent 7, Nvidia, reported very strong earnings Wednesday after the bell, beating both revenue and profit expectations. Stocks initially opened higher on the news, but sentiment reversed quickly after the September employment report. The U.S. economy added 119,000 jobs, more than double the forecast of 50,000, and initial jobless claims came in at 220,000, below expectations of 227,000. Together, these signals pointed to a firmer labor market, which in turn reduced expectations of a December rate cut. However, the report wasn’t entirely strong: the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021. The mixed signals—strong hiring but rising unemployment—added to market volatility, as investors debated whether the Fed would feel comfortable easing policy next month. Concerns about stretched AI valuations further weighed on sentiment. Both the Dow and Nasdaq swung more than 1,000 points from their intraday highs to lows. This morning, the University of Michigan released its Consumer Sentiment Index, which fell to 51—the lowest reading since June 2022. Wage growth also cooled, with average hourly earnings rising 3.8% year over year, slightly above expectations of 3.7%. Adding to the uncertainty, New York Fed President John Williams said he believes the Fed can begin to lower interest rates “in the near term” given signs of labor-market weakness. His comments helped push December rate-cut odds back up to 75.3%, a sharp increase of roughly 30 percentage points from last Friday.

Senator John Fetterman and Bill Maher just said what most politicians won’t: the far-left’s politics of division are creating resentment, hostility, and tribalism. In this quick breakdown, Elliot Omanson explains why group-based politics inevitably backfires — and why Fetterman’s comments are less “courage” and more basic human psychology. Fetterman described the far-left as “the most poisonous,” while Maher echoed similar frustrations. Elliot dives into why policies built on forced redistribution and identity-based conflict make unity impossible — and why reducing political coercion leads to less resentment, not more.

Zohran Mamdani was just elected mayor of New York City — and we think it marks the culmination of everything wrong with the Democrat Party. In this week’s episode, we break down what Mamdani’s win really means for NYC: rent freezes, “free housing,” government-run grocery stores, higher taxes, and a complete misunderstanding of what freedom actually is. We get into FDR’s forgotten “Second Bill of Rights,” how the left twists the idea of rights into government handouts, and why every time they try this, it ends the same way — failure. We even look at Kansas City’s publicly run grocery store (spoiler: it’s a disaster) and how decades of rent stabilization have distorted NYC’s housing market and pushed prices higher for everyone else. Later, we dig into New York’s abortion statistics, population trends, and why policies that claim to help certain groups end up hurting them most. From Giuliani’s New York to Mamdani’s, this episode shows how cities keep repeating the same mistakes — and what it says about where America’s headed.

November is off to a sluggish start for stocks, with all three major indices finishing the first week of the month in the red. If October was the party, then November has been the hangover. Market sentiment has been weighed down by several factors: ongoing concerns about a potential government shutdown, limited fresh economic data, and renewed uncertainty about whether the Fed will deliver another rate cut in December. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in a 72.4% chance of a rate cut at the next FOMC meeting — still more likely than not, but a noticeable drop from confidence levels leading into October’s cut. Adding to the cautious tone, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 50.3%, down 6.2% from last month and marking its lowest reading since June 2022. Consumers are increasingly worried about inflation and the overall direction of the economy. Tech stocks, which fueled much of this year’s rally, have been hit hardest amid valuation concerns. All eyes are on Nvidia’s earnings report on November 19th, which could set the tone for the broader market into year-end. Meanwhile, the Supreme Court is reviewing the legality of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977, a case that could have major implications for trade policy and global markets. With so many moving parts — from the Fed’s next move to consumer confidence and international trade — market volatility may persist as we close out 2025.

It’s been a strong week for markets, with all three major U.S. indexes on pace to finish up more than 1%. The rally has been fueled by a solid start to Q3 earnings season, where roughly 84% of companies have beaten Wall Street expectations so far — a sign of continued corporate resilience despite macro uncertainty. Tesla (TSLA) was the first of the “Magnificent 7” to report, missing earnings by nearly 10% but posting record revenue of $28.1 billion. The rest of the group will report next week, with Nvidia closing out the mega cap lineup in November. On the macro front, September CPI data was released Friday despite the ongoing government shutdown — required by law for Social Security COLA adjustments. Both headline and core inflation came in cooler than expected at 3.0%, below the 3.1% consensus. This reading reinforced expectations of further Fed rate cuts, with futures markets now pricing in a 97% probability of a 25 bp cut at next week’s FOMC meeting. Also worth watching: President Trump and Chinese President Xi are confirmed to meet next Thursday at the APEC Summit. The meeting comes amid renewed trade tensions — China recently expanded restrictions on rare earth exports, and the U.S. has threatened 100% tariffs in response. Any sign of progress toward de-escalation could provide another tailwind for equities into month-end.

This week’s episode breaks down one of the most ridiculous outrage cycles yet — the “No Kings” protests and the media’s obsession with Trump’s White House ballroom. We look at how the outrage machine keeps spinning: AI-generated clips, performative protests, and constant double standards that define today’s politics. Elliot even shares his new op-ed, “The Hypocrisy Presidency: When Outrage Only Runs One Way,” calling out how both sides bend the rules when it benefits them. From the “Chicken Little” mindset to fake moral crusades, we cut through the noise, show what’s really driving the outrage, and talk about why America’s biggest addiction might just be hypocrisy itself.

Stock markets reached new all-time highs earlier this week but declined sharply today following China’s announcement of new restrictions on the export of rare earth materials and related technologies. In response, President Trump threatened a significant increase in tariffs on Chinese products. Currently, tariffs on Chinese imports stand at 30% under the existing trade truce between the U.S. and China. This sudden escalation in trade tensions sent stocks lower this morning, pulling major indices back from their record highs. Meanwhile, the government shutdown continues, delaying key economic reports. Next week’s inflation data is scheduled for release—assuming the shutdown does not persist. Outside of official reports, consumer credit balances—which measure total outstanding credit card debt—declined slightly in August. This marks a continued downtrend since October 2024, indicating modestly reduced consumer borrowing and spending. While that may appear concerning, the pullback remains mild compared to major downturns seen earlier in the century and can be viewed as a healthy normalization rather than a warning sign. The odds of a U.S. recession remain relatively low, with Kalshi markets pricing only a 33% probability of recession by 2027. Earnings season for the third quarter is now underway, with major technology companies set to report in the coming weeks. Forecasts point to another strong round of corporate results. With easing monetary policy and solid earnings expectations, the broader market outlook remains resilient despite renewed geopolitical tensions.