Murphy's Market Minute | October 24, 2025

It’s been a strong week for markets, with all three major U.S. indexes on pace to finish up more than 1%. The rally has been fueled by a solid start to Q3 earnings season, where roughly 84% of companies have beaten Wall Street expectations so far — a sign of continued corporate resilience despite macro uncertainty. Tesla (TSLA) was the first of the “Magnificent 7” to report, missing earnings by nearly 10% but posting record revenue of $28.1 billion. The rest of the group will report next week, with Nvidia closing out the mega cap lineup in November. On the macro front, September CPI data was released Friday despite the ongoing government shutdown — required by law for Social Security COLA adjustments. Both headline and core inflation came in cooler than expected at 3.0%, below the 3.1% consensus. This reading reinforced expectations of further Fed rate cuts, with futures markets now pricing in a 97% probability of a 25 bp cut at next week’s FOMC meeting. Also worth watching: President Trump and Chinese President Xi are confirmed to meet next Thursday at the APEC Summit. The meeting comes amid renewed trade tensions — China recently expanded restrictions on rare earth exports, and the U.S. has threatened 100% tariffs in response. Any sign of progress toward de-escalation could provide another tailwind for equities into month-end.