No Easy Option: Saudi Arabia is Between Iraq and a Houthi Place

In this episode, On the Fringe analyzes the implications of the growing geopolitical crisis in the Gulf and a potential crisis for oil markets due to Houthi forces exposing key terrain...and it miles away from the coast, in brains in Riyadh. On September 3rd, an attempt by the internationally recognized government backed by Saudi Arabia to launch an offensive against the Houthi forces that control the majority of Yemen’s populated area quickly went awry. As of publication, Houthi forces have overwhelmed government positions and seized control of the entirety of Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including islands located in the Red Sea and the strategically important port own of Al-Mokha. This is disastrous for the opposition to the Houthis, but it is also disastrous for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, which has seen several cities and economically critical pipelines and oil facilities attacked by ballistic missiles and drones.The Kingdom has had to shut down the East-West pipeline, after it was hit by ballistic missiles originating from somewhere in Iraq. The East-West pipeline was keeping the Red Sea ports supplied with oil from the Eastern oil-fields that had otherwise been cut off from oil markets by the war around the Strait of Hormuz; the Saudis are now counting the barrels it still has located in the Red Sea port of Yanbu that are destined for export to the Sumed pipeline that traverses Egypt.There is every possibility that the Houthis may have cut off all Saudi oil exports to the world…this is 4% of all the oil currently on the market, and while that may seem like a small number, it could lead to one of the most geopolitically important capitulations of the 21st century.If you enjoyed the episode, shoot us a message, share it with your friends, and subscribe. We always love hearing from our growing On the Fringe community.All the best from both of us,Dave and GavOn the Fringe is listener-supported. To receive new posts and support our show, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe