On the Fringe

In this episode, Dave and Gav dive into the Makanan Bergizi Gratis (MBG), pronounced as ‘em-bay-gay’ program. This program was launched by Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto in January 2025 to combat child malnutrition and spur economic development across the country. We analyze Indonesia’s current political and economic state through the program and what this means for the country going forward. Did we hit the mark, or are we totally out to lunch on this episode? Let us know with a message or a comment! Or, reach out at [email protected] We wouldn’t be here without the support of our longstanding supporters and our new listeners in our growing On the Fringe Community. Thank you, as always, for tuning in! All the best from both of us,Dave + Gav This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

On November 13th 2024, a tragedy occurred in Vang Vieng, Laos. Six tourists from four countries lost their lives from unknowingly drinking methanol at a popular backpackers’ hostel.Fast forward a year and a half, and charges have been laid against the owner of the distillery…over a $1,000 and just about a month in the big house. Needless to say, many of the grieving families, are less than happy about this.Meanwhile, the Laotian government has been relatively non-plussed. We talk about why this is exactly and the context surrounding this sad incident.For our earlier coverage of the event, here’s one from the vault—nearly 2 years ago!Are you surprised by the Laotian government’s reaction to the event?If you learned something from the episode, or have any other travel tips for your fellow listeners, share it with us at [email protected] or in a message.We sincerely appreciate our dedicated listeners and subscribers.All the best from both of us,Dave and GavThis Substack is listener-supported. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

This week, Dave and Gavin, sit down with Chad Peace, the founder and President of IVC Media, and attorney for the IVP (Independent Voter Project). Chad is a prominent lawyer and activist who was a key part of the effort to pass Proposition 14, a voter initiative that implemented an open primary system in California. During the chat, Chad gives a look at the state of voting reform on the state level across the United States and how it is both a non-partisan and bi-partisan issue. Taking a look at the state of open primaries and ranked choice voting might not be everyone’s idea of a good time, but it is an interesting insight in to a story that is generally covered in a simple and usually misleading way.To learn more about Chad’s work and IVC Media, go to: https://independentvoterproject.org/ To learn more about Independent Voter News, go to ivn.us Independent Voter News was ranked as having a “Center” rating on AllSides and as being “Least biased, having high credibility, and providing factual information,” according to Media Bias / Fact Check. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

How does “Earrings,” a 2024 indie sleeper nobody had ever heard of make it to No. 1 on the charts in 2026? Whatever the case, Spotify had to issue a mea culpa after Kalshi pointed out that bots programmed by some bad actors—not Todd—looking to make a quick buck were probably to blame. Again, on this episode we return to the subject of insider trading, manipulation, and straight-up wire fraud and the almost limitless horizon of opportunities, some legitimate, some less so, offered by prediction markets. This is just another act on the Dark Side of Prediction Markets. And, there will likely be more to come, not only in terms of more episodes on this topic, but also of how everyday life is increasingly manipulated for profit. If you enjoyed the episode or want to throw some rocks, click below. We always appreciate the love from our growing On the Fringe community.All the best from both of us,Dave + Gav This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

Before we recorded our planned episode yesterday, we spontaneously jumped into talking about driving, Korea, and North Korea. And now, I know why Gavin has never suggested renting a car. You’ll also hear a tidbit about why a Korean Driver’s license is powerful, arguably more so than the Dear Leader himself. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

This week on the pod, Dave and Gav get into it about the SAFE Kids Act and other pieces of legislation regarding AI chatbots, social media, and child safety. As legislators around the world play catch-up with the social, economic, and legal implications of AI, we talk about how Constitutional rights may find themselves more in the crossfire—or in the crosshairs. This episode is part of our rolling coverage of developments involving AI and education. We’ve covered whether a college degree is worth it and what the front lines of preparing for an AI future look like. It’s likely not where you’d think! If you enjoyed the episode, shoot us a message, restack, and pass us some love and feedback. If you’re listening on Apple or Spotify, don’t forget to rate our show. We sincerely appreciate all the growing support our On the Fringe community provides.All the best from both of us!Dave and Gavin This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

Five months after the quiet announcement that American troops were being deployed in Nigeria to combat the local IS franchise, an even quieter announcement that the 200-ish deployment has already come to an end. The strategic aims apparently having been met, the US’s engagement, which began with a barrage of Tomahawks on Christmas Day last year, has been wrapped up. Meanwhile, the Nigerian government has taken pains to highlight how information sharing between the two countries continues despite a physical withdrawal.Does the withdrawal mean mission accomplished for the U.S.? For the Nigerians? Let us know what you think!All the best from both of us,Dave and GavinIf you want to hear more about the region, check out this episode! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

Hey On the Fringe Community! In the last couple of years, there have been several other On the Fringe podcasts that have come out (one about labor unions, and one about aliens, from what it looks like…plus a few others). For the first time in both our lives (Dave + Gavin), we are being confused for someone else—and to be honest, it’s kind of weird and funny for both of us. Click the episode above to get our reaction to it. One more thing too:Since we set up On the Fringe 2 years ago, we’ve done this as a hobby and a labor of love. It’s fun for Gavin + I, and we are talking about taking the podcast more seriously going forward—i.e. having a clearer upload schedule, producing more exclusive content for subscribers and loyal listeners, and monetizing the show.When we do decide to monetize the show, we will keep you all informed :) And if you have any ideas that could help us to build our show going forward, they’re ALWAYS welcome. Shoot us a message or an email at [email protected] All the best from both of us On the Fringe!Dave and GavThis Substack is listener and reader-supported. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

Hello, On the Fringe Community! Here’s a quick thank you message as we wrap up season. We appreciate and enjoy your continued support—and we have more on the way! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode, Gav and Dave tackle the continuing problem of bear attacks in Japan, by looking at a recent incident involving a smarter than average bear. As rural communities shrink and bears push into populated areas, the country continues to struggle with all of the conflicts that ensue from overlapping habitats. Dave and Gav discuss why the problem keeps getting worse and why Japanese politicians continue to struggle with their ursine neighbors.We covered the increasing bear attacks back in Season 3, which is here: https://onthefringepodcast.substack.com/p/bonus-episode-one-bear-of-a-problem If you enjoyed the show, share, like, and subscribe. We sincerely appreciate our growing On the Fringe Community and will have more subscribers only exclusives coming for you soon!All the best from both of us!Dave and Gav This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode, Dave and Gav look at the rise of the irrepressible Bishnoi Gang and what it says about the continuing evolution of transnational crime.They trace how a gang rooted in northern India developed reach far beyond its home turf, and connect that story to scandals surrounding Cricket Canada, where allegations of corruption and questionable leadership have cast a dark shadow over the sport.The result is an episode about the depressing ease with which institutions can be bent to serve interests they were never meant to protect and harm those they are intended to represent.If you enjoyed the episode, feel free to share, subscribe, and leave us a comment. We always appreciate the support from our growing On the Fringe community.Thank you, as always for listening to On the Fringe. We sincerely appreciate it!All the best from both of us,Dave and Gav This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

This short episode follows up on part 1: We’re living in the age of the TerminatorIn recent weeks, autonomous drones flown by the Sudanese Armed Forces (and likely the Ethiopians) went head-to-head, marking the first record event of two autonomous weapons facing off. Both drones came from the same manufacturer, Bayraktar, a Turkish defense company. Could this be a sign of how future wars are fought? One supplier sourcing material to two opposing sides, or autonomous weapons leading combat operations? Listen in and find out!If you enjoyed the episode, shoot us a message, like, comment, and share the podcast. We sincerely appreciate it! All the best from both of us On the Fringe, Dave and Gavin This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

Will algorithms be better decision makers than humans when it REALLY counts? Some countries are betting on it, while others are taking baby steps.We’ve got a short episode about what autonomous weapons are, what they do, and why they could be consequential to the future of war and humanity, much like other parts of the AI boom that we are living in. Please do us a favor and share or drop a comment. We love hearing from our audience! All the best from both of us On the Fringe,Dave and Gav This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode, Dave and Gav sit down with Dr. Ralph DeFalco, author of The Counterfeit, to talk about Chinese influence campaigns, economic coercion, and the blurry line between fiction and forecasting in the intelligence world. Dr. DeFalco is a U.S. national security operative with more than fifty years of experience.Their conversation explores how speculative fiction can function almost like strategic modeling, where imagined crises have a habit of becoming uncomfortably plausible a few years later. Dr. DeFalco talks about plotting a novel as a labour of love and how he drew from history to create a believable and authentic environment. On the Fringe also taps into how influence actually works in practice and why democracies continue to struggle to respond to slow-moving forms of pressure.One thing I (Dave) forgot to mention in the interview is that I felt the book shines a light into Chinese society under the CCP, specifically about how the Chinese Communist Party secures the Chinese state, how Chinese intelligence operations are conducted, and how information is tightly controlled in China behind the great firewall.If you’re hooked, here’s a link to bookshop.org to purchase the book.(we make ZERO commission)As always, thanks as always for joining us On the Fringe and don’t forget to like, comment, subscribe, and share.All the best from both of us,Gav and DaveIf you enjoyed it, share it. We TRULY appreciate it! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

A former Google software Engineer, Michele Spagnuolo, got arrested and charged by the Feds in New York for wire fraud, insider trading, and a laundry list of financial crimes for using his position as a software engineer at Google to make crooked bets on Polymarket.The boys dive into the ongoing legal saga surrounding prediction markets and financial regulations in the United States, and make a long-term bet that this is still going to all wind up in the Supreme Court. But ol’ Michele’s going to jail.What’s your take on the future of prediction markets? Will they be state, or federally regulated?If you enjoyed the episode, restack, share it, and let us know. We sincerely appreciate it!All the best from both of us On the Fringe,Dave and Gav This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode, Dave and Gavin dive into a wild tale, and what may be the biggest counterintelligence failure in the 21st century. Former officer David “Gold Bar Dave” Rush, who allegedly worked in the agency’s Science and Technology Directorate, was recently arrested after fabricating his time sheets, and likely worse—hoarding 300 kilograms of gold bars from the agency for several months. After his arrest, the FBI also discovered several million dollars in cash, and hundreds of thousands of dollars in luxury watches in his house. Moreover, it’s now been discovered that Rush had weaved an intricate web of lies that the agency and DoD (now the Department of War) had fallen for (or ignored) for over a decade, including lies about every credential he had for almost two decades. He had also joined the Senior Executive Service (SES) as one of the top civil servants in the U.S. Government.Here is the affidavit outlining Rush’s charges.If Rush’s charges are factually true and he is deemed to be guilty, these events point to critical missteps and tremendous failures that may lead to incredible damage to the United States once (if) the full story ever comes out, and, it should be a serious wakeup call for the U.S. intelligence community about how they vet Officers working with some of the most sensitive information, in some of the most sensitive positions in the country. If you enjoyed the episode, don’t forget to like, comment, share, and subscribe. We sincerely appreciate your feedback and our growing Substack community!All the best from both of us,Dave and Gav This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode, Gav and Dave dig into the stagnant security environment in the Gulf, where stranded cargo ships collecting barnacles have become a symbol of a region stuck in limbo, with trade still moving but nobody feeling particularly good about it. This week’s conversation connects maritime insecurity and rising shipping costs to the growing role of Pakistan as a formal military partner for Gulf states that is trying to convince parties outside the region that it’s a neutral third-party mediator. Dave and Gav also get into why negotiations keep going nowhere, talking on how the major players all want wildly differing outcomes and operate under political systems that reward displays of dominance and over the top claims more than compromise, leaving the region trapped in a crisis everyone claims to want resolved and nobody seems to want to settle. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode, Gav and Dave speak with Ramon Perez, AI technology executive and military veteran from the Digital Democracy Project about the misaligned incentive structures shaping modern politics in America.Rather than treating misinformation or polarization as isolated failures, the discussion focuses on how platforms, lobbyists, media organizations, and representatives are rewarded for behavior that undermines trust and pushes the national discourse toward conflict.The result is an environment where bad incentives become self-reinforcing, moderation becomes risky and systems built to increase engagement slowly start influencing how institutions govern themselves, an alarming foundation for public life. But there’s hope—as long as we’re actively involved and actively participate in the process. Go to https://vote.gov/ to register to vote if you haven’t!To find out more about the Digital Democracy Project, go to: https://digitaldemocracyproject.org/If you enjoyed the episode, like, comment, share, and subscribe with a friend. We sincerely appreciate it!All the best from both of us On the Fringe,Dave and Gav This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

If you’re going abroad, moving abroad, want to build new personal relationships, or are looking to level up your life, this is a conversation you won’t want to miss. In this episode, Gav and Dave sit down with David Ramos, a graduate of the Bush School of Government and Public Service who has turned language acquisition into what appears to be a competitive sport. David has 12 OPI certifications and picked up languages like Afrikaans and Swedish on a whim…and shares how you can do the same. The OPI is a foreign language interview exam that is used as a gold standard by the U.S. government, military, and private companies, to test proficiency in a language. Drawing from their shared background in Peace Corps language training, Gav and Dave talk with David about how he got pulled into polyglottery in the first place, the psychology of learning fast, and what actually separates people who eventually become conversational from people who spend three years proudly knowing how to order coffee and ask where the bathroom is. The conversation also digs into identity and the ability to interact with the world through different ways of talking about it.David can be contacted here: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jdramos7201/ If you enjoyed the episode, leave us a comment, subscribe, and share it with your friends. We always appreciate the support from our growing On the Fringe community. All the best from both of us,Dave and Gavin This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

This week, Dave and Gav sit down with Tomasz Nadrowski, author of Mineral Wars: China’s Quest for Weapons of Mineral Destruction.They dive into chokepoint theory, fragile supply chains and the disquieting reality that modern life is held together by a handful of minerals most people have never heard about until somebody threatens access to them. The conversation digs into how China has built enormous leverage over rare earth processing over the last few decades, why everything from smartphones and EVs to missile guidance systems depends on materials pulled from contested supply networks, and how governments are suddenly rediscovering that globalization works wonderfully right up until one country controls the thing your entire economy needs to survive.For more insight from Tomasz, check out his podcast, Tyranny Today. Here’s a link to his book Mineral War: China’s Quest for Weapons of Mineral Destruction (all links are external links and we get no commission) This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode, Gav and Dave break down how Pakistan has become a critical piece on the board in the competition between the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. They focus especially on the millions of Pakistani migrant workers whose labor props up huge parts of the Gulf economy while also giving Islamabad a potential Achilles’ heel during moments of regional tension, where visas, remittances, military cooperation, and investment deals all start blending into a larger contest for greater influence. The result is a delicate balancing act where Gulf states want dependable partners and Pakistan wants Gulf money without becoming too dependent on any single patron, which, naturally, is the sort of arrangement that only stays stable—right up until it doesn’t.If you enjoyed the episode, please like, comment, and share it with your friends. We can’t thank our growing audience enough for your support and wouldn’t be here without YOU. And I (Dave) made a boo-boo! The UAE called up a $3.5 billion payment from Pakistan that Saudi largely backstopped, not $4 billion. (no notes, sorry!)If you'd like to throw a few rocks, send em Gav's way. He's always looking for a new pet rock: [email protected] Rock on! 🤘Take care from both of us On the Fringe,Dave and Gav This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode, Dave and Gav look at how the UAE has drifted away from the consensus politics of institutions like Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and the Gulf Cooperation Council in favor of a more transactional worldview that treats regional politics less like alliances and more like market positioning. We’ll be unpacking how Abu Dhabi’s approach to trade, ports, normalization, proxy conflicts and investment strategy increasingly reflects a zero-sum mindset where influence is something to be accumulated before anyone else can.We contrast this with Saudi Arabia, which has struggled to pull off the same pivot not because its leadership lacks ambition, but because the kingdom is burdened with a much larger population, heavier subsidy expectations, religious obligations, and geographic exposure that make it far harder to reinvent itself into the kind of nimble commercial state the UAE has spent years trying to become.If you enjoyed the episode, do us a MASSIVE favor and share it, leave a comment, and tell your friends. Thank you for helping us grow the show. We wouldn’t be here without you.All the best from both of us On the Fringe,Dave and Gav This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode, with help from friend of the pod, Stuart Bolus, Gav and Dave dig into the April 25th attacks across Mali in which jihadist groups working in concert with Tuareg separatists managed to hit multiple cities, shut down key infrastructure and killed the Defense Minister and other key members of the ruling Junta. This highlights an increasingly uncomfortable situation where Mali, a critically important country in the geographical and cultural center of the region, increasingly looks and behaves like a state on the brink of total collapse. We talk about what this means for the region, why outside assistance will likely not be coming (not for the government anyways) and why we’d all be surprised if the Malian government lasts until the end of 2026.If you enjoyed the episode, please leave us a comment, send us an email, or better yet—subscribe for more. We love hearing from our On the Fringe community! All the best from us On the Fringe,Dave and Gavin This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

Gav and Dave wade back into the increasingly unhinged world of prediction markets, starting with how Kalshi ended up fining and banning a handful of American politicians for betting on their own elections, which sounds small until you realize it’s basically insider trading with campaign posters. Then, they pivot to the much less subtle case of a U.S. military operator getting arrested after allegedly pulling in over $400,000 on Polymarket by betting on the capture of Nicolás Maduro using classified information. Are there more cases like this coming soon? Let us know what you think!If you enjoyed the episode, please like, comment, subscribe, and share! All the best from both of us On the Fringe,Gav and Dave This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

Gav and Dave go back to college! This week, the guys talk about the financial crisis affecting higher education across the U.S., which segues into a much larger conversation about how and why higher education has gotten into dire straits, where the Sultans of Swing are hitting their enrollment numbers—and more importantly, their bottom lines.If you enjoyed the episode, don’t skimp on the comments and share it with a friend. Or, leave us a message. We always appreicate it!All the best from both of us On the Fringe,Dave and Gavin This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

Gav and Dave get their toes wet in jet fuel, the least glamorous substance floating around the global economy (maybe next to guano), and follow how price swings and current supply hiccups linked to the current shenanigans in the Strait of Hormuz are keeping airlines in a state of unease where ticket prices jump, routes quietly disappear, and everyone insists this is a normal behavior for a supposedly stale industry. If you enjoyed the episode (or if we made a mistake and you want to call us out), leave us a comment, send us a comment—or an email. We really appreciate your listenership and couldn’t be growing as fast as we are without YOU. Please, if you enjoyed it or learned something, send it to a friend.Thanks from both of us On the Fringe,Gav and Dave This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode of On The Fringe, Gav and Dave dig into the sudden collapse of the Board of Peace, because nothing says “stable international order” like an institution quietly disappearing mid-crisis. We trace how internal fractures, economic short-falls, and a complete inability to enforce its own mandates turned what was supposed to be a conflict-dampening mechanism into just another casualty of the current geopolitical moment. There will be knock-on effects cutting through regional alignments and the already frayed idea that anyone at the top is actually planning anything. Does the Board of Peace have a chance despite being on life support? Let us know what you think! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

Here’s a hot tip on the next big thing—prediction markets!This week, Polymarket and Kalshi are going to court in California to find out whether or not the federal government or individual states have jurisdiction over them….and Donald Trump Jr. (a prominent investor/advisor to both and an actual board member of Kalshi) finds out whether or not he’s hit the jackpot.This ruling will affect national security concerns, sports, celebrities, elections, and other events, big and small, worldwide. How do governments try to figure out how to regulate betting on whether the sun comes up tomorrow? We don’t know—and if you have any ideas, shoot us an email!As always, thanks for listening! All the best from both of us On the Fringe,Gav and DaveOn the Fringe is supported by readers and listeners like you. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. We appreciate it! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

When you see something online, do you honestly think it is genuine or has your best interest at heart? In this episode, Dave and Gavin talk with Braden Frame, COO of Modern Cartographers based out of Austin. Braden is a medically retired firefighter and expert digital literacy educator who helps communities across the country stay safe and improve communication, among other things. In the chat, we navigate the landscape of how social media has changed in the last few years and can be leveraged to strengthen campaigns and communities. We also dive into how we as average users of the internet can make a difference in our lives when we use AI positively as a tool to find solutions, not as the solution. We end the podcast with a reminder from Braden that you don't want to miss.www.moderncartographers.com Meet Braden hereIf you'd like to join us On the Fringe, shoot us an email at [email protected] for listening! This post is public so feel free to share it.On the Fringe is listener supported. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. We sincerely appreciate it! The podcast, title, and description weren’t AI generated. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

For roughly 6 weeks, Afghanistan and Pakistan have been fighting a hot war that has received very little coverage. Yet the ongoing conflict is impacting (and being impacted by) the Middle East and South Asia. We have been following it—and have even made episodes about it that we planned to release—but shelved them because they were stale by the release date.This is a quick update about the last few weeks (and before) in that part of the world, two main causes of the war, and who is stepping up to quell the fighting.If you learned something, don’t forget to like, comment, subscribe, and share. We really appreciate it!Take care from both of us On the Fringe,Dave and Gavin This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

A belated Eid Mubarak, Happy Easter, and Happy Passover to all. The last three weeks have come at a very sensitive time for hundreds of millions of people in the Middle East. Despite all of the differences, many still find faith as a cornerstone of their lives, especially when all looks lost. Regardless of what you believe, let’s all keep hope close and remember the night is darkest just before dawn. All the best from both of us On the Fringe,Dave and Gavin This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

Dave and Gav take apart the rise of prediction markets during wartime, where financial bets and gambling compulsions are on a collision with real-world violence…and reality. With the ongoing Iran conflict, they examine how millions of dollars are being wagered on strikes, leadership challenges, and ceasefires, turning war into a tradable asset for the masses.If you enjoyed the episode, don’t forget to like, comment, subscribe, or share. We truly appreciate it! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

This week, Gav and Dave, joined by guest Leo Andolsek take a wide-angle view of the Balkans. Leo cuts through the noise in modern media to unpack the layered history, cultures, and persistent tensions of this fascinating corner of Europe. Our chat connects the past and present in plain terms, winding through the rise and collapse of Yugoslavia and tiptoeing past the fault lines that still define relations between its successor states. Expect a focus on how historical memories, complex dynamics, and transcending nationalism shape all of these countries today.If you enjoyed the episode, don’t forget to like, comment, subscribe, and share the podcast. We appreciate it! The map of the Balkans in the top right corner was made by ImStevan and can be found on Wikimedia here: This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode, Dave and Gavin talk to old friend of the pod, Stuart Bolus, about the state of West Africa and how it got to where it is today. In this wide ranging conversation, we talk about the economic crisis underpinning the jihadi violence tearing the Sahel apart, the colonial problems that lead to this, and how that economic crisis coincides with larger social and demographic problems that will continue to make West Africa a region to watch for a long, long time. We also make light of the plight of the humble yam farmer, for which we apologize.Stuart’s insight was featured on Season 2, Episode 39: The man of the hour in West Africa. The map of Africa in the corner of the cover art was made by Sannita and is available here on Wikimedia. No changes were made. The giant yam in the cover art was made by Muktee1494 and is available here on Wikimedia. No changes were made. If you enjoyed the podcast, help us out and leave a comment or restack it. Thank you! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

The Gulf States (from east to west: Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar UAE, Oman) are at the center of an accelerating confrontation between the US and Israel, and Iran. Iran is forcing their hand to end their longstanding neutrality and to choose a side. Which side will they choose?In this episode, Gavin and Dave take a hard look at the region that is drifting into a conflict cycle that neither side fully controls. They talk about the security architecture of the individual GCC states, Tehran’s strategy of escalation and asymmetric warfare, and the affects of political and economic constraints in capitals like Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. Further, dive into how limited disruption around the Strait of Hormuz reverberates throughout the global economy, and will for a long long time.Also, I (Dave) made a mistake--I said the Spratly Islands and should have said the Senkaku Islands. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

The Board of Peace held its 2026 annual meeting in Washington, DC, gaining capital commitments and additional members. During the meeting, five member countries on the Board of Peace (Indonesia, Morocco, Albania, Kosovo, and Kazakhstan) have all pledged to send troops to the Gaza Strip. In this episode, Gavin and Dave dive into why these countries intend to commit troops to the International Stabilization Force, their motivations for joining, and immediate challenges the peacekeeping force will face. Most notably, we discuss why rules of engagement will be critical to the stability of Gaza, and why a general lack of transparency will likely handicap any real attempt to bring peace to Gaza. Can these five countries, likely led by Indonesia achieve long lasting peace? Let us know what you think!If you enjoyed the episode, click subscribe below. We sincerely appreciate it!This Substack is listener-supported. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.All the best from both of us,Dave and Gavin This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

Hey all! In this bonus episode, Gavin and Dave look at why so many former presidents of South Korea leave the Blue House under a cloud of investigation or prosecution or just plain bad luck, and why this pattern may be getting harder to break. And, argue that this mix of geopolitical tension and demographic decline makes the presidency of the Republic of Korea more unstable and less forgiving than in the past.South Korea faces rising pressure from North Korea and increasing disengagement from the United States. At the same time, the country’s birthrate continues to fall at one of the fastest rates in the world. A shrinking population feeds cultural anxiety and creates a long-term security problem for a country that relies on conscription. Fewer young people mean strain on the military system and on public finances.Will Korea somehow undergo a baby boom? Will robots and AI save the country’s population from crashing off the face of the earth? Let us know what you think.If you enjoyed the podcast, don’t forget to like, comment, subscribe, or share.We really appreciate it your support! All the best from us On the Fringe!Dave and GavinThis Substack is listener-supported. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. We appreciate it! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

This week, Gav and Dave dive headlong into the weird, wonderful world of prediction markets; giant online betting platforms where you can put a wager on just about anything under the sun.These new multi-billion dollar markets seem to be incentivizing people to bet on anything. In this quick bonus, we take a quick dive into a story of two Israelis with military connections being charged this last week with misusing military secrets to put bets on strikes against Iran, and an ongoing investigation into $400,000 dollars one lucky punter walked away with after the removal of Nicolas Maduro in January…..and with impressive capital gains and political backing in all the right places, it doesn’t seem like something that governments or corporations will be able (or willing) to put a lid on any of this any time soon.Leave us your best feedback, a comment, or your favorite emoji and we will get back to you. Thanks again for listening!This Substack is listener-supported. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode, Gavin and Dave move the spotlight to Africa, where the Saudi–UAE rivalry is less than subtle and where a flare-up might have a major impact on your world. As it has played out, the UAE has backed, funded and supplied weapons and mercenaries to the RSF, one of the two competing factions in the Sudanese Civil War; the other faction, the Sudanese Armed Forces, are increasingly dependent on Egyptian and Turkish logistical support and defense platforms paid for with money from Riyadh. In Somalia, this has manifested for Emirati support for Somaliland’s recognition of Israel and Saudi’s backing of the Federal government in Mogadishu (aided by Turkish F-16s and one of the largest military bases in Sub-Saharan Africa). The increasingly fraught relations between the two countries shows no signs of course correcting any time soon….though the Board of Peace might conceivably play some role in whatever comes next.Will the Board of Peace make its first big play and showcase its value? (It is $1 billion to join). Let us know what you think below! Shoot us an email at [email protected]. We look forward to hearing from you! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode Dave and Gav dig into the increasingly heated rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, two monarchies that once moved in lockstep, but are now violently competing for regional dominance.What began as a strategic partnership, most visibly in Yemen after 2015, has evolved into a contest over leadership of the Gulf, influence in OPEC+, and control of trade routes. Saudi Arabia under MBS is repositioning itself as the political and economic heavyweight of the Middle East, pressuring multinationals to relocate regional headquarters to Riyadh and recalibrating its foreign policy outreach. Meanwhile, the UAE has leveraged its port networks, financial hubs, and interventionist security policies to build influence from the Horn of Africa to the Eastern Mediterranean.This episode lays out how the two countries are increasingly tangled up in all the worst ways. Is this former close relationship a sign of more things to come in geopolitics, or just a quick flash in the pan?Let us know at [email protected] or send us a message!This Substack is listener-supported. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. We sincerely appreciate it! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

A well-known hotel in Macau just ripped out its iconic showpiece as gold prices are at (nearly) record highs. Learn why this is happening and what this means going forward for the Special Administrative Region of China. If you liked the short, let us know and smash that like button! We appreciate it. All the best from us on the Fringe! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

Hey all! In this quick episode we explore what the end of the CIA World Factbook means for inquiring minds, and AI-generated content. If you enjoy the short bonus episode, don’t forget to like, comment, subscribe or share with your fellow trivia team or geo-bee all stars. We sincerely appreciate it :) This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

Hey all! We are going back to a topic that we’ve followed since the beginning of On the Fringe—scam farms in Southeast Asia. Some of our first episodes covered these scam farms and organized crime in the region, including the wild tales of Alice Guo, former mayor of Banban in the Philppines.These bad guys are using the latest technology, modern-day slavery, and cunning tactics to get you, the average citizen, to lose trust in society as well as your life savings. Despite the recent crackdown (and Dave and Gavin’s reasoning as to why now), we think it will get worse. Learn how and why by listening to this episode—and share it with your loved ones, especially if they use social media or are not tech-savvy.If you’ve ever caught them in their sneaky traps, share your story below, or shoot us an email! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

This week, Dave and Gavin take a look into a new organization, that seems to be a real harbinger of things to come. Initially pitched as a ‘technocratic government’ for Gaza, the initial concept of an executive board has snowballed into an organization with a charter as vague as its members are colorful. United by a vision of governance that is action-oriented and personality-based, the Board of Peace, even if it goes down in flames, is likely to dominate conversations about international relations for years to come.If you liked the episode, pass it on, shoot us a message here or at [email protected]. We are excited to be back and have more on the way!All the best from us,Dave and Gavin This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

Hey all! We are kicking off season 4 much earlier than we’d thought. Why? Early Saturday morning, the international rules-based order, or what was left of it, expired both painfully and suddenly with the removal of Nicolas Maduro (and his wife) from Caracas to New York City. In this episode, we focus, not on the events of that early morning raid, but of its potential and actual ramifications for international relations. The idea that relations between states are governed by codified, internationally-accepted laws has been the main characteristic of relations between states over the last 75 years. It is no longer the case, and inter-state conflict is about to ramp up in a way that is both predictable and utterly impossible to foresee.If you enjoyed the episode, shoot us a comment, give us some love, and let us know. We appreciate it and will be back again soon!Dave and Gavin This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

Hey all! Happy 2026! Gavin and I wish you all the best in your endeavors this year—and we would love to hear about them (and how we can help!)We started the On the Fringe Substack last January (2025) and have more downloads and interest than we could have imagined. We wouldn’t be here without you guys and can’t thank you enough for your support. We literally started with 0, and have had over 6,000 downloads from our Substack alone, and thousands more views and listens. Since we started Season 3 in August, We’ve doubled our listeners (and it’s not just Aunt Leena telling Aunt Nelda). We are seeing real listener growth with the show and will keep it going strong for Season 4. As we keep growing, we want to hear more from y’all! What do you like, what do you NOT like, and where can we get better to provide you a better listener experience. We’re going to keep unraveling geopolitical events and AI as we move forward into season 4 and will be coming at you with more in the coming weeks! Thanks again!Dave and Gavin This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

Hello all, from over top of Baffin Island! I’m about as far as north as you can go, and depending on your view point, OpenAI may be just as near the top of Santa’s naughty list for next year. We’ve got a short bonus episode that’s been under the radar in the West, and front page news in India. OpenAI’s mobile version of ChatGPT called ChatGPT Go is now free in India for a full year for new subscribers. Gavin and I dive into potential reasons why this might be happening, and what the future may hold for the company and hundreds of millions of Indians (as well as other users worldwide) who take advantage of it. If you like the episode, don’t forget to give us a like, comment, or subscribe. We truly appreciate it! And, if you think we’re totally off base here—call us out. Thanks as always for listening, and stay smart!Dave and Gavin This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

Hey all! This week on On the Fringe, Dave and Gavin yack about a recent incident in Reno, Nevada, where a man was misidentified by using AI technology. We jump into the uses and misuses of AI in the modern world, and what increased reliance without the human element leads society toward.If you’re curious about our take on it, don’t miss this episode!Check out some of our more recent episodes about AI.Season 3, Episode 21, On the Edge of Everything, with Practical AI CEO Derek CragerSeason 3, Episode 5: A Crash Course on GPTs, with John Otwell, a Software EngineerSeason 3, Episode 7: Questions anyone using AI needs to ask themselves, with John Otwell and Kevin WongIf you enjoyed the episode, don’t forget to like, comment, share, and subscribe. We truly appreciate it!All the best,Dave and GavinHere's the YouTube Video we referenced: https://youtu.be/B9M4F_U1eEw?si=testFg29pvSixGE-No AI was misused in the production of this episode, but it was used to make the image of the guy in the top right corner of the cover art. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

This week, Dave and Gav brought back Joe Barnes, friend of the pod and guest on our episode about neighboring Kazakhstan to talk about Kyrgyzstan. Joe dives into a deep backstory about the Kyrgyz Republic, and why the country has taken off economically in the last few years. One reason—it’s absolutely beautiful and an incredible value for your money.We also discuss what has changed in Kyrgyz civil society and how important gold is (and mining) to the country.If you’ve got an inkling to explore Central Asia on foot or online, don’t miss this episode.We love to hear from our listeners and fans. Leave us some feedback, your favorite emoji, or a rating. Take care and all the best from us here On the Fringe!Dave and Gav--Reach out to Joe on his website, X/Twitter, and see his articles for the Diplomat here. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

Hey all! We’ve got a quick episode for you and two events we will likely be covering in our next season in greater depth. In the first part, Dave and Gav talk about what’s going on between Thailand and Cambodia. In the second part, Gavin goes on a tear and gets to the bottom of a murky situation in Benin. As always, thanks for listening and joining us On the Fringe!All the best,Dave and Gav This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe