On the Fringe

In this episode, On the Fringe analyzes the implications of the growing geopolitical crisis in the Gulf and a potential crisis for oil markets due to Houthi forces exposing key terrain...and it miles away from the coast, in brains in Riyadh. On September 3rd, an attempt by the internationally recognized government backed by Saudi Arabia to launch an offensive against the Houthi forces that control the majority of Yemen’s populated area quickly went awry. As of publication, Houthi forces have overwhelmed government positions and seized control of the entirety of Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including islands located in the Red Sea and the strategically important port own of Al-Mokha. This is disastrous for the opposition to the Houthis, but it is also disastrous for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, which has seen several cities and economically critical pipelines and oil facilities attacked by ballistic missiles and drones.The Kingdom has had to shut down the East-West pipeline, after it was hit by ballistic missiles originating from somewhere in Iraq. The East-West pipeline was keeping the Red Sea ports supplied with oil from the Eastern oil-fields that had otherwise been cut off from oil markets by the war around the Strait of Hormuz; the Saudis are now counting the barrels it still has located in the Red Sea port of Yanbu that are destined for export to the Sumed pipeline that traverses Egypt.There is every possibility that the Houthis may have cut off all Saudi oil exports to the world…this is 4% of all the oil currently on the market, and while that may seem like a small number, it could lead to one of the most geopolitically important capitulations of the 21st century.If you enjoyed the episode, shoot us a message, share it with your friends, and subscribe. We always love hearing from our growing On the Fringe community.All the best from both of us,Dave and GavOn the Fringe is listener-supported. To receive new posts and support our show, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

This week, Gavin and Dave have an old friend of the pod, fellow RPCV and veteran educator, Kevin Wong, back on to talk about the recently announced AI moratorium in New York City’s public schools. The one-year moratorium which temporarily bans the use of AI in the classroom from grades K-8, and limits how it can be used from 9-12, including mandates on limiting screen time and prohibiting teachers from using AI to grade assessments, is already being talked about as a flagship policy. Kevin talks about how, as welcome as the policy is, the rollout has been sudden and the sense of education policy playing keep-up probably isn’t going away anytime soon.What’s your take on this? Should schools follow what New York City is doing? Or, should something else be done to fix the growing lack of critical thinking and dependence on tech? We always love hearing from our growing On the Fringe community. Shoot us an email at [email protected], leave a comment, or send us a message. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

Last week, the UN General Assembly voted nearly unanimously to utilize maps with the more accurate Equal Earth scale instead of the commonly used Mercator scale. The United States voted against it, and the reason why may surprise you. Listen in to this bonus episode about why the US’s explanation to vote “no” is ironic, especially as President Trump signed an executive order to rename Lake Ontario as Lake America. If you’re not in the US, this change has already come into effect.What’s your take on these major geopolitical events? If you’ve got feedback, shoot us an email: [email protected] We appreciate our growing On the Fringe community. All the best from both of us,Dave + Gav The map of Africa used as the cover for this podcast was created by WwJLaik and is available here on Wikimedia commons. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

In what could be one of the most impactful geopolitical events of the year, an attempted coup that kicked off in the Republic of Niger on August 28th has upended a lot of long held ideas about the regional order in the Sahara.On this pod, Gavin and Dave explore how a failed putsch from disaffected junior officers in Niamey has led to Algeria’s first major foreign military deployment since 1973, and how the various military actors involved in Niger have complicated an already fraught situation as the ruling military junta continues to lose ground against jihadists.If you enjoyed the podcast, shoot us a message or an email. [email protected] We love hearing from our growing On the Fringe Community.All the best from both of us,Dave and Gav This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

This week, Gav and Dave get the chance to talk Chauncy Wadsworth, a 22-year old American electoral reformist and PR professional, about how he got involved in politics, how he feels about the state of American politics today and why he’s still optimistic about the political future of America. In this wide-ranging conversation, Chauncy and the guys cover the corrosive effect of money on American politics, the healing power of CSPAN, and why seemingly impossible fault-lines can still be bridged.If you enjoyed the episode, shoot us a message on [email protected], share it with your friends, and subscribe if you haven’t. We always appreciate the love from our growing On the Fringe community.All the best from both of us,Dave and Gav This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

This week, Dave and Gavin kibbitz about the large settlement announced between Meta and 47+ US States and territories. While on paper a stunning legal victory, the actual cost to the social media titan is more symbolic than anything else, as this presents Meta with an opportunity to tweak its algorithm and start rolling out more autonomous AI agents who will be able to train off of the interactions this algorithmic tweaking will cause. The boys talk about the relative merits and de-merits of “Just Say No!” when it comes to using social media and opine on this cycle of excrement anyone who is involved in a social media platform seems to be trapped in.On the Fringe is getting more and more downloads each day. As the community grows, we would love to hear from you! Shoot us a message or an email. Thanks as always for joining us On the Fringe.All the best from both of us,Dave + Gav This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

On the morning of August 26th, along the Nepali-Chinese border, tragedy struck. Devastating flash floods wiped out entire villages, ports of entry, roads, and human lives. With a death toll currently around 800 and over 3,000 missing, the scale of destruction and devastation seems impossibly large for a country already struggling with environmental change and economic hardship. Gav and Dave talk about some of the factors involved and how this is a harbinger of what’s to come in the high mountains of Asia.Our hearts go out to the people of Nepal and in Tibet who are suffering from the devastating tragedy at this time. If you’d like to make a donation to flood victims and aren’t sure where to make a contribution, the National Peace Corps Association recommends Friends of Nepal. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

Hello, On the Fringe Community. I thought I’d posted this last week! In this episode, Dave and Gavin analyze what the new Mecca Joint Defense Agreement (the Mecca Agreement) between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan means for the Middle East and South Asia. This tripartite security pact outlines that members will come to one another’s aid in the event of an attack. Saudi and Pakistan had already had an agreement signed in 2025; this adds Turkey to the mix. Is this a new geopolitical bloc forming in the region? Will this agreement stand up if truly tested? Listen in and find out our thoughts. As always, thanks for the support and all the best from both of us,Dave and Gav This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

Curious about where the fuel for an angry social media thread begins? It’ll likely surprise you—like it did us! Meme and engagement farms are popping up in Indonesia, providing opportunities for locals to earn thanks to YOUR clicks and arguing with someone you’ve never met in Cleveland.Dave and Gavin also tie the podcast into a reminder and practical advice at the end that everyone who uses the internet shouldn’t miss. If you enjoyed the episode, let us know! Shoot us an email, leave a comment, and share it with your friends. We really appreciate it!All the best from both of us,Dave and Gav This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode, Dave and Gavin analyze and explore potential ramifications in South Korea (and in the region) due to the Ulchi Freedom Shield military exercises being abruptly shortened. Since his first term, President Trump has called out South Korea for not doing enough to bear the costs of U.S. military forces in Korea and supporting the United States. As Trump again signals displeasure with Seoul, and takes action by shortening the military exercises early, will the ROK in turn take a step to be more independent and less reliant on the United States for defense? Listen in and find out. Don’t miss Gavin’s big prediction at the end.If you enjoyed the episode, share it with a friend and let us know. We always appreciate the support from our growing On the Fringe community! All the best from both of us,Dave and Gavin This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode, Dave and Gavin welcome back Sherman Tylawsky, a friend and past guest from season 3 of On the Fringe. Sherman ran for Congress in Nevada’s Second District and looks back on his campaign across the northern chunk of the state.He dives into why he ran, his approach to campaigning, and what he learned to build a greater understanding of Nevadans in his district and of America.Listen to the full episode to get a clear picture of who Sherman is as a person. To hear more about his foundation for public service, don’t miss this episode where we talked with him about values to keep a human-focused future in an ever-changing technological world.Sherman also has a podcast called Friends and Fellow Citizens that can be accessed here.Thanks for listening and all the best from both of us,Dave and Gavin This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

Around the end of July, around 70,000 people crossed the border between Morocco and the Spanish city of Ceuta. Dozens died trying to swim there, and heaven knows how many died crossing the Sahel and the Sahara from their own countries. In this short episode, Dave and Gavin talk about the realities around the event and why it has become such a flash point for opinion across the planet. If you enjoyed the episode, reach out! Send us a message at [email protected], leave a comment. We always appreciate the growing support from our On the Fringe community. All the best from both of us,Dave + Gavin This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

This week, Dave and Gav talk to Dan Williams, a contender in the Democratic primary for Florida’s 11th electoral district, and an old friend of the pod, Ramon Perez, the executive director of the Digital Democracy Project. Dan Williams is a candidate with a vision for congressional representation in America that would transcend party politics and special interests by using available and readily accessible technology to center the voice of the people living in congressional districts. The boys talk to Dan and Ramon about how they’re trying to get the conversation about direct democracy going on a national level and how policies often unite voters divided on party lines.After you’ve listened, don’t miss our episode with Ramon: If you enjoyed the episode, share it with a friend or let us know: [email protected] All the best from both of us,Dave and Gav This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode, Dave and Gav sit down with Tom Joseph, an early tech entrepreneur and the Treasurer of America’s Main Street Party, to talk about how and why political parties in the U.S use gerrymandering to retain power and limit opposition.Tom presents a radical idea to fight gerrymandering with a super PAC—fighting fire with fire so to speak—which opens the door for more voters to have their voices heard and to narrow down the field of potential political candidates to choose the one voters want.Curious about how to really make your vote count, or about the U.S. electoral system? Don’t miss this episode!On the Fringe is listener-supported. To receive new posts and support our work, subscribe below. We appreciate it!The Gerry-mander cartoon is part of the public domain in the United States and can be accessed here on WikimediaAlso, I (Dave) made a mistake. I meant to say District 18, not District 14. (District 14 is across town). This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

We couldn’t have predicted that Kalshi is pushing a valuation at the level of United Airlines, Campbells Soup, or Dropbox.That’s why we had Andrew Lebbos, Senior Vice President of Licensing at Benzinga, a fast-growing finance data licensing company, on the podcast to explain the intersection of finance and prediction markets, and what it means as a whole new world of trading likely opens up.If you are interested in markets, mutual funds, AI, and the rapid rise of prediction markets, don’t miss this episode. We cover the rapid rise of prediction markets, how prediction markets are reshaping investment strategies, and how everyday investors will have new channels available as prediction markets are set to shake up the entire financial industry.Disclaimer: The views expressed by Andrew Lebbos in this episode are his own and do not reflect the positions of Benzinga. This discussion is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation regarding any security. Listeners should consult a qualified professional before making financial decisions.On the Fringe is listener-supported. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. We truly appreciate it! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode, Dave and Gav dive into the Makanan Bergizi Gratis (MBG), pronounced as ‘em-bay-gay’ program. This program was launched by Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto in January 2025 to combat child malnutrition and spur economic development across the country. We analyze Indonesia’s current political and economic state through the program and what this means for the country going forward. Did we hit the mark, or are we totally out to lunch on this episode? Let us know with a message or a comment! Or, reach out at [email protected] We wouldn’t be here without the support of our longstanding supporters and our new listeners in our growing On the Fringe Community. Thank you, as always, for tuning in! All the best from both of us,Dave + Gav This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

On November 13th 2024, a tragedy occurred in Vang Vieng, Laos. Six tourists from four countries lost their lives from unknowingly drinking methanol at a popular backpackers’ hostel.Fast forward a year and a half, and charges have been laid against the owner of the distillery…over a $1,000 and just about a month in the big house. Needless to say, many of the grieving families, are less than happy about this.Meanwhile, the Laotian government has been relatively non-plussed. We talk about why this is exactly and the context surrounding this sad incident.For our earlier coverage of the event, here’s one from the vault—nearly 2 years ago!Are you surprised by the Laotian government’s reaction to the event?If you learned something from the episode, or have any other travel tips for your fellow listeners, share it with us at [email protected] or in a message.We sincerely appreciate our dedicated listeners and subscribers.All the best from both of us,Dave and GavThis Substack is listener-supported. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

This week, Dave and Gavin, sit down with Chad Peace, the founder and President of IVC Media, and attorney for the IVP (Independent Voter Project). Chad is a prominent lawyer and activist who was a key part of the effort to pass Proposition 14, a voter initiative that implemented an open primary system in California. During the chat, Chad gives a look at the state of voting reform on the state level across the United States and how it is both a non-partisan and bi-partisan issue. Taking a look at the state of open primaries and ranked choice voting might not be everyone’s idea of a good time, but it is an interesting insight in to a story that is generally covered in a simple and usually misleading way.To learn more about Chad’s work and IVC Media, go to: https://independentvoterproject.org/ To learn more about Independent Voter News, go to ivn.us Independent Voter News was ranked as having a “Center” rating on AllSides and as being “Least biased, having high credibility, and providing factual information,” according to Media Bias / Fact Check. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

How does “Earrings,” a 2024 indie sleeper nobody had ever heard of make it to No. 1 on the charts in 2026? Whatever the case, Spotify had to issue a mea culpa after Kalshi pointed out that bots programmed by some bad actors—not Todd—looking to make a quick buck were probably to blame. Again, on this episode we return to the subject of insider trading, manipulation, and straight-up wire fraud and the almost limitless horizon of opportunities, some legitimate, some less so, offered by prediction markets. This is just another act on the Dark Side of Prediction Markets. And, there will likely be more to come, not only in terms of more episodes on this topic, but also of how everyday life is increasingly manipulated for profit. If you enjoyed the episode or want to throw some rocks, click below. We always appreciate the love from our growing On the Fringe community.All the best from both of us,Dave + Gav This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

Before we recorded our planned episode yesterday, we spontaneously jumped into talking about driving, Korea, and North Korea. And now, I know why Gavin has never suggested renting a car. You’ll also hear a tidbit about why a Korean Driver’s license is powerful, arguably more so than the Dear Leader himself. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

This week on the pod, Dave and Gav get into it about the SAFE Kids Act and other pieces of legislation regarding AI chatbots, social media, and child safety. As legislators around the world play catch-up with the social, economic, and legal implications of AI, we talk about how Constitutional rights may find themselves more in the crossfire—or in the crosshairs. This episode is part of our rolling coverage of developments involving AI and education. We’ve covered whether a college degree is worth it and what the front lines of preparing for an AI future look like. It’s likely not where you’d think! If you enjoyed the episode, shoot us a message, restack, and pass us some love and feedback. If you’re listening on Apple or Spotify, don’t forget to rate our show. We sincerely appreciate all the growing support our On the Fringe community provides.All the best from both of us!Dave and Gavin This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

Five months after the quiet announcement that American troops were being deployed in Nigeria to combat the local IS franchise, an even quieter announcement that the 200-ish deployment has already come to an end. The strategic aims apparently having been met, the US’s engagement, which began with a barrage of Tomahawks on Christmas Day last year, has been wrapped up. Meanwhile, the Nigerian government has taken pains to highlight how information sharing between the two countries continues despite a physical withdrawal.Does the withdrawal mean mission accomplished for the U.S.? For the Nigerians? Let us know what you think!All the best from both of us,Dave and GavinIf you want to hear more about the region, check out this episode! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

Hey On the Fringe Community! In the last couple of years, there have been several other On the Fringe podcasts that have come out (one about labor unions, and one about aliens, from what it looks like…plus a few others). For the first time in both our lives (Dave + Gavin), we are being confused for someone else—and to be honest, it’s kind of weird and funny for both of us. Click the episode above to get our reaction to it. One more thing too:Since we set up On the Fringe 2 years ago, we’ve done this as a hobby and a labor of love. It’s fun for Gavin + I, and we are talking about taking the podcast more seriously going forward—i.e. having a clearer upload schedule, producing more exclusive content for subscribers and loyal listeners, and monetizing the show.When we do decide to monetize the show, we will keep you all informed :) And if you have any ideas that could help us to build our show going forward, they’re ALWAYS welcome. Shoot us a message or an email at [email protected] All the best from both of us On the Fringe!Dave and GavThis Substack is listener and reader-supported. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

Hello, On the Fringe Community! Here’s a quick thank you message as we wrap up season. We appreciate and enjoy your continued support—and we have more on the way! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode, Gav and Dave tackle the continuing problem of bear attacks in Japan, by looking at a recent incident involving a smarter than average bear. As rural communities shrink and bears push into populated areas, the country continues to struggle with all of the conflicts that ensue from overlapping habitats. Dave and Gav discuss why the problem keeps getting worse and why Japanese politicians continue to struggle with their ursine neighbors.We covered the increasing bear attacks back in Season 3, which is here: https://onthefringepodcast.substack.com/p/bonus-episode-one-bear-of-a-problem If you enjoyed the show, share, like, and subscribe. We sincerely appreciate our growing On the Fringe Community and will have more subscribers only exclusives coming for you soon!All the best from both of us!Dave and Gav This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode, Dave and Gav look at the rise of the irrepressible Bishnoi Gang and what it says about the continuing evolution of transnational crime.They trace how a gang rooted in northern India developed reach far beyond its home turf, and connect that story to scandals surrounding Cricket Canada, where allegations of corruption and questionable leadership have cast a dark shadow over the sport.The result is an episode about the depressing ease with which institutions can be bent to serve interests they were never meant to protect and harm those they are intended to represent.If you enjoyed the episode, feel free to share, subscribe, and leave us a comment. We always appreciate the support from our growing On the Fringe community.Thank you, as always for listening to On the Fringe. We sincerely appreciate it!All the best from both of us,Dave and Gav This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

This short episode follows up on part 1: We’re living in the age of the TerminatorIn recent weeks, autonomous drones flown by the Sudanese Armed Forces (and likely the Ethiopians) went head-to-head, marking the first record event of two autonomous weapons facing off. Both drones came from the same manufacturer, Bayraktar, a Turkish defense company. Could this be a sign of how future wars are fought? One supplier sourcing material to two opposing sides, or autonomous weapons leading combat operations? Listen in and find out!If you enjoyed the episode, shoot us a message, like, comment, and share the podcast. We sincerely appreciate it! All the best from both of us On the Fringe, Dave and Gavin This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

Will algorithms be better decision makers than humans when it REALLY counts? Some countries are betting on it, while others are taking baby steps.We’ve got a short episode about what autonomous weapons are, what they do, and why they could be consequential to the future of war and humanity, much like other parts of the AI boom that we are living in. Please do us a favor and share or drop a comment. We love hearing from our audience! All the best from both of us On the Fringe,Dave and Gav This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode, Dave and Gav sit down with Dr. Ralph DeFalco, author of The Counterfeit, to talk about Chinese influence campaigns, economic coercion, and the blurry line between fiction and forecasting in the intelligence world. Dr. DeFalco is a U.S. national security operative with more than fifty years of experience.Their conversation explores how speculative fiction can function almost like strategic modeling, where imagined crises have a habit of becoming uncomfortably plausible a few years later. Dr. DeFalco talks about plotting a novel as a labour of love and how he drew from history to create a believable and authentic environment. On the Fringe also taps into how influence actually works in practice and why democracies continue to struggle to respond to slow-moving forms of pressure.One thing I (Dave) forgot to mention in the interview is that I felt the book shines a light into Chinese society under the CCP, specifically about how the Chinese Communist Party secures the Chinese state, how Chinese intelligence operations are conducted, and how information is tightly controlled in China behind the great firewall.If you’re hooked, here’s a link to bookshop.org to purchase the book.(we make ZERO commission)As always, thanks as always for joining us On the Fringe and don’t forget to like, comment, subscribe, and share.All the best from both of us,Gav and DaveIf you enjoyed it, share it. We TRULY appreciate it! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

A former Google software Engineer, Michele Spagnuolo, got arrested and charged by the Feds in New York for wire fraud, insider trading, and a laundry list of financial crimes for using his position as a software engineer at Google to make crooked bets on Polymarket.The boys dive into the ongoing legal saga surrounding prediction markets and financial regulations in the United States, and make a long-term bet that this is still going to all wind up in the Supreme Court. But ol’ Michele’s going to jail.What’s your take on the future of prediction markets? Will they be state, or federally regulated?If you enjoyed the episode, restack, share it, and let us know. We sincerely appreciate it!All the best from both of us On the Fringe,Dave and Gav This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode, Dave and Gavin dive into a wild tale, and what may be the biggest counterintelligence failure in the 21st century. Former officer David “Gold Bar Dave” Rush, who allegedly worked in the agency’s Science and Technology Directorate, was recently arrested after fabricating his time sheets, and likely worse—hoarding 300 kilograms of gold bars from the agency for several months. After his arrest, the FBI also discovered several million dollars in cash, and hundreds of thousands of dollars in luxury watches in his house. Moreover, it’s now been discovered that Rush had weaved an intricate web of lies that the agency and DoD (now the Department of War) had fallen for (or ignored) for over a decade, including lies about every credential he had for almost two decades. He had also joined the Senior Executive Service (SES) as one of the top civil servants in the U.S. Government.Here is the affidavit outlining Rush’s charges.If Rush’s charges are factually true and he is deemed to be guilty, these events point to critical missteps and tremendous failures that may lead to incredible damage to the United States once (if) the full story ever comes out, and, it should be a serious wakeup call for the U.S. intelligence community about how they vet Officers working with some of the most sensitive information, in some of the most sensitive positions in the country. If you enjoyed the episode, don’t forget to like, comment, share, and subscribe. We sincerely appreciate your feedback and our growing Substack community!All the best from both of us,Dave and Gav This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode, Gav and Dave dig into the stagnant security environment in the Gulf, where stranded cargo ships collecting barnacles have become a symbol of a region stuck in limbo, with trade still moving but nobody feeling particularly good about it. This week’s conversation connects maritime insecurity and rising shipping costs to the growing role of Pakistan as a formal military partner for Gulf states that is trying to convince parties outside the region that it’s a neutral third-party mediator. Dave and Gav also get into why negotiations keep going nowhere, talking on how the major players all want wildly differing outcomes and operate under political systems that reward displays of dominance and over the top claims more than compromise, leaving the region trapped in a crisis everyone claims to want resolved and nobody seems to want to settle. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode, Gav and Dave speak with Ramon Perez, AI technology executive and military veteran from the Digital Democracy Project about the misaligned incentive structures shaping modern politics in America.Rather than treating misinformation or polarization as isolated failures, the discussion focuses on how platforms, lobbyists, media organizations, and representatives are rewarded for behavior that undermines trust and pushes the national discourse toward conflict.The result is an environment where bad incentives become self-reinforcing, moderation becomes risky and systems built to increase engagement slowly start influencing how institutions govern themselves, an alarming foundation for public life. But there’s hope—as long as we’re actively involved and actively participate in the process. Go to https://vote.gov/ to register to vote if you haven’t!To find out more about the Digital Democracy Project, go to: https://digitaldemocracyproject.org/If you enjoyed the episode, like, comment, share, and subscribe with a friend. We sincerely appreciate it!All the best from both of us On the Fringe,Dave and Gav This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

If you’re going abroad, moving abroad, want to build new personal relationships, or are looking to level up your life, this is a conversation you won’t want to miss. In this episode, Gav and Dave sit down with David Ramos, a graduate of the Bush School of Government and Public Service who has turned language acquisition into what appears to be a competitive sport. David has 12 OPI certifications and picked up languages like Afrikaans and Swedish on a whim…and shares how you can do the same. The OPI is a foreign language interview exam that is used as a gold standard by the U.S. government, military, and private companies, to test proficiency in a language. Drawing from their shared background in Peace Corps language training, Gav and Dave talk with David about how he got pulled into polyglottery in the first place, the psychology of learning fast, and what actually separates people who eventually become conversational from people who spend three years proudly knowing how to order coffee and ask where the bathroom is. The conversation also digs into identity and the ability to interact with the world through different ways of talking about it.David can be contacted here: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jdramos7201/ If you enjoyed the episode, leave us a comment, subscribe, and share it with your friends. We always appreciate the support from our growing On the Fringe community. All the best from both of us,Dave and Gavin This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

This week, Dave and Gav sit down with Tomasz Nadrowski, author of Mineral Wars: China’s Quest for Weapons of Mineral Destruction.They dive into chokepoint theory, fragile supply chains and the disquieting reality that modern life is held together by a handful of minerals most people have never heard about until somebody threatens access to them. The conversation digs into how China has built enormous leverage over rare earth processing over the last few decades, why everything from smartphones and EVs to missile guidance systems depends on materials pulled from contested supply networks, and how governments are suddenly rediscovering that globalization works wonderfully right up until one country controls the thing your entire economy needs to survive.For more insight from Tomasz, check out his podcast, Tyranny Today. Here’s a link to his book Mineral War: China’s Quest for Weapons of Mineral Destruction (all links are external links and we get no commission) This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode, Gav and Dave break down how Pakistan has become a critical piece on the board in the competition between the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. They focus especially on the millions of Pakistani migrant workers whose labor props up huge parts of the Gulf economy while also giving Islamabad a potential Achilles’ heel during moments of regional tension, where visas, remittances, military cooperation, and investment deals all start blending into a larger contest for greater influence. The result is a delicate balancing act where Gulf states want dependable partners and Pakistan wants Gulf money without becoming too dependent on any single patron, which, naturally, is the sort of arrangement that only stays stable—right up until it doesn’t.If you enjoyed the episode, please like, comment, and share it with your friends. We can’t thank our growing audience enough for your support and wouldn’t be here without YOU. And I (Dave) made a boo-boo! The UAE called up a $3.5 billion payment from Pakistan that Saudi largely backstopped, not $4 billion. (no notes, sorry!)If you'd like to throw a few rocks, send em Gav's way. He's always looking for a new pet rock: [email protected] Rock on! 🤘Take care from both of us On the Fringe,Dave and Gav This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode, Dave and Gav look at how the UAE has drifted away from the consensus politics of institutions like Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and the Gulf Cooperation Council in favor of a more transactional worldview that treats regional politics less like alliances and more like market positioning. We’ll be unpacking how Abu Dhabi’s approach to trade, ports, normalization, proxy conflicts and investment strategy increasingly reflects a zero-sum mindset where influence is something to be accumulated before anyone else can.We contrast this with Saudi Arabia, which has struggled to pull off the same pivot not because its leadership lacks ambition, but because the kingdom is burdened with a much larger population, heavier subsidy expectations, religious obligations, and geographic exposure that make it far harder to reinvent itself into the kind of nimble commercial state the UAE has spent years trying to become.If you enjoyed the episode, do us a MASSIVE favor and share it, leave a comment, and tell your friends. Thank you for helping us grow the show. We wouldn’t be here without you.All the best from both of us On the Fringe,Dave and Gav This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode, with help from friend of the pod, Stuart Bolus, Gav and Dave dig into the April 25th attacks across Mali in which jihadist groups working in concert with Tuareg separatists managed to hit multiple cities, shut down key infrastructure and killed the Defense Minister and other key members of the ruling Junta. This highlights an increasingly uncomfortable situation where Mali, a critically important country in the geographical and cultural center of the region, increasingly looks and behaves like a state on the brink of total collapse. We talk about what this means for the region, why outside assistance will likely not be coming (not for the government anyways) and why we’d all be surprised if the Malian government lasts until the end of 2026.If you enjoyed the episode, please leave us a comment, send us an email, or better yet—subscribe for more. We love hearing from our On the Fringe community! All the best from us On the Fringe,Dave and Gavin This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

Gav and Dave wade back into the increasingly unhinged world of prediction markets, starting with how Kalshi ended up fining and banning a handful of American politicians for betting on their own elections, which sounds small until you realize it’s basically insider trading with campaign posters. Then, they pivot to the much less subtle case of a U.S. military operator getting arrested after allegedly pulling in over $400,000 on Polymarket by betting on the capture of Nicolás Maduro using classified information. Are there more cases like this coming soon? Let us know what you think!If you enjoyed the episode, please like, comment, subscribe, and share! All the best from both of us On the Fringe,Gav and Dave This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

Gav and Dave go back to college! This week, the guys talk about the financial crisis affecting higher education across the U.S., which segues into a much larger conversation about how and why higher education has gotten into dire straits, where the Sultans of Swing are hitting their enrollment numbers—and more importantly, their bottom lines.If you enjoyed the episode, don’t skimp on the comments and share it with a friend. Or, leave us a message. We always appreicate it!All the best from both of us On the Fringe,Dave and Gavin This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

Gav and Dave get their toes wet in jet fuel, the least glamorous substance floating around the global economy (maybe next to guano), and follow how price swings and current supply hiccups linked to the current shenanigans in the Strait of Hormuz are keeping airlines in a state of unease where ticket prices jump, routes quietly disappear, and everyone insists this is a normal behavior for a supposedly stale industry. If you enjoyed the episode (or if we made a mistake and you want to call us out), leave us a comment, send us a comment—or an email. We really appreciate your listenership and couldn’t be growing as fast as we are without YOU. Please, if you enjoyed it or learned something, send it to a friend.Thanks from both of us On the Fringe,Gav and Dave This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode of On The Fringe, Gav and Dave dig into the sudden collapse of the Board of Peace, because nothing says “stable international order” like an institution quietly disappearing mid-crisis. We trace how internal fractures, economic short-falls, and a complete inability to enforce its own mandates turned what was supposed to be a conflict-dampening mechanism into just another casualty of the current geopolitical moment. There will be knock-on effects cutting through regional alignments and the already frayed idea that anyone at the top is actually planning anything. Does the Board of Peace have a chance despite being on life support? Let us know what you think! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

Here’s a hot tip on the next big thing—prediction markets!This week, Polymarket and Kalshi are going to court in California to find out whether or not the federal government or individual states have jurisdiction over them….and Donald Trump Jr. (a prominent investor/advisor to both and an actual board member of Kalshi) finds out whether or not he’s hit the jackpot.This ruling will affect national security concerns, sports, celebrities, elections, and other events, big and small, worldwide. How do governments try to figure out how to regulate betting on whether the sun comes up tomorrow? We don’t know—and if you have any ideas, shoot us an email!As always, thanks for listening! All the best from both of us On the Fringe,Gav and DaveOn the Fringe is supported by readers and listeners like you. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. We appreciate it! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

When you see something online, do you honestly think it is genuine or has your best interest at heart? In this episode, Dave and Gavin talk with Braden Frame, COO of Modern Cartographers based out of Austin. Braden is a medically retired firefighter and expert digital literacy educator who helps communities across the country stay safe and improve communication, among other things. In the chat, we navigate the landscape of how social media has changed in the last few years and can be leveraged to strengthen campaigns and communities. We also dive into how we as average users of the internet can make a difference in our lives when we use AI positively as a tool to find solutions, not as the solution. We end the podcast with a reminder from Braden that you don't want to miss.www.moderncartographers.com Meet Braden hereIf you'd like to join us On the Fringe, shoot us an email at [email protected] for listening! This post is public so feel free to share it.On the Fringe is listener supported. To receive new posts and support our work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. We sincerely appreciate it! The podcast, title, and description weren’t AI generated. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

For roughly 6 weeks, Afghanistan and Pakistan have been fighting a hot war that has received very little coverage. Yet the ongoing conflict is impacting (and being impacted by) the Middle East and South Asia. We have been following it—and have even made episodes about it that we planned to release—but shelved them because they were stale by the release date.This is a quick update about the last few weeks (and before) in that part of the world, two main causes of the war, and who is stepping up to quell the fighting.If you learned something, don’t forget to like, comment, subscribe, and share. We really appreciate it!Take care from both of us On the Fringe,Dave and Gavin This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

A belated Eid Mubarak, Happy Easter, and Happy Passover to all. The last three weeks have come at a very sensitive time for hundreds of millions of people in the Middle East. Despite all of the differences, many still find faith as a cornerstone of their lives, especially when all looks lost. Regardless of what you believe, let’s all keep hope close and remember the night is darkest just before dawn. All the best from both of us On the Fringe,Dave and Gavin This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

Dave and Gav take apart the rise of prediction markets during wartime, where financial bets and gambling compulsions are on a collision with real-world violence…and reality. With the ongoing Iran conflict, they examine how millions of dollars are being wagered on strikes, leadership challenges, and ceasefires, turning war into a tradable asset for the masses.If you enjoyed the episode, don’t forget to like, comment, subscribe, or share. We truly appreciate it! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

This week, Gav and Dave, joined by guest Leo Andolsek take a wide-angle view of the Balkans. Leo cuts through the noise in modern media to unpack the layered history, cultures, and persistent tensions of this fascinating corner of Europe. Our chat connects the past and present in plain terms, winding through the rise and collapse of Yugoslavia and tiptoeing past the fault lines that still define relations between its successor states. Expect a focus on how historical memories, complex dynamics, and transcending nationalism shape all of these countries today.If you enjoyed the episode, don’t forget to like, comment, subscribe, and share the podcast. We appreciate it! The map of the Balkans in the top right corner was made by ImStevan and can be found on Wikimedia here: This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode, Dave and Gavin talk to old friend of the pod, Stuart Bolus, about the state of West Africa and how it got to where it is today. In this wide ranging conversation, we talk about the economic crisis underpinning the jihadi violence tearing the Sahel apart, the colonial problems that lead to this, and how that economic crisis coincides with larger social and demographic problems that will continue to make West Africa a region to watch for a long, long time. We also make light of the plight of the humble yam farmer, for which we apologize.Stuart’s insight was featured on Season 2, Episode 39: The man of the hour in West Africa. The map of Africa in the corner of the cover art was made by Sannita and is available here on Wikimedia. No changes were made. The giant yam in the cover art was made by Muktee1494 and is available here on Wikimedia. No changes were made. If you enjoyed the podcast, help us out and leave a comment or restack it. Thank you! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe

The Gulf States (from east to west: Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar UAE, Oman) are at the center of an accelerating confrontation between the US and Israel, and Iran. Iran is forcing their hand to end their longstanding neutrality and to choose a side. Which side will they choose?In this episode, Gavin and Dave take a hard look at the region that is drifting into a conflict cycle that neither side fully controls. They talk about the security architecture of the individual GCC states, Tehran’s strategy of escalation and asymmetric warfare, and the affects of political and economic constraints in capitals like Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. Further, dive into how limited disruption around the Strait of Hormuz reverberates throughout the global economy, and will for a long long time.Also, I (Dave) made a mistake--I said the Spratly Islands and should have said the Senkaku Islands. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit onthefringepodcast.substack.com/subscribe