Noise vs. the Mega Trends: What Capitulation Hides
from Exponential Learning Hosted by The Team
The Nasdaq just had its worst day since June, the leaders are capitulating, and the AI trade looks like it is unraveling. But look underneath: the average S&P 500 stock already fell 18-20% while a couple dozen mega caps held the index calm, Eaton's electrical backlog is up 43% with data center orders up ~85% and guidance raised, Amphenol just posted record orders of 0.7B, transformer lead times run 16-26 months, US data center demand of 97 GW faces a 57 GW gross power shortfall, and a ~ trillion global defense modernization is booked on decade-long contracts. Alex and Jordan separate the noise, fear, uncertainty and doubt from the three durable mega trends — the industrial renaissance, AI and power modernization, and defense modernization — and name the leaders built to power through the daily volatility: Eaton, GE Vernova, Schneider Electric, Siemens Energy, Quanta Services, Vertiv, Caterpillar, Amphenol, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, RTX, GE Aerospace, Heico, TransDigm, Axon and BAE Systems. Own the scarce inputs, rent the commoditizable ones, overweight the proven adopters.
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