PODCAST · education
Exponential Learning
by The Team
Humans can absorb multiples more audio content than written. To that end, this podcast is for absorbing as much intelligence as possible as the catch-all for interesting articles, research reports, or podcast summaries. I hope you enjoy the knowledge as much as we do.
Episodes
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THE INTRINSIC VALUE PORTFOLIO — What Three Value Investors Actually Own, and How It's Working
Shawn O'Malley, Daniel Mahncke and Kyle Grieve of The Intrinsic Value Podcast spend ~40 hours a week valuing one business, publish a model and an intrinsic-value estimate, and then decide in public: add it to the Intrinsic Value Portfolio, or pass. They pass roughly 80% of the time. This episode...
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Hedge Funds Are Getting Crushed: Is Extreme Positioning a Contrarian Indicator?
Goldman Sachs prime brokerage data shows the fastest hedge fund technology de-grossing in records back to 2016, U.S. fundamental long-short net leverage at the 0th percentile of five years (about 43.7%), and technology still 23.5% of the global prime book - the 90th percentile. The episode...
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Sector & Factor Weekly — Week of October 23
Weekly sector and style-factor recap for the week ending Friday, October 23, 2026. Alex and Jordan rank all eleven sectors from materials plus three point three percent to technology minus three point eight, name the biggest single-stock movers in each sector, and break down the style rotation:...
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Capital Markets Weekly — Week of October 23
A split week: the S&P 500 and Nasdaq slipped while the Dow and Russell 2000 climbed. Megacap tech got re-priced on AI capital spending — Meta raised 2026 capex to $135–145B and turned free cash flow negative, Tesla cut its vehicle target, IBM warned on enterprise software budgets. Then Friday...
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Comfort Systems USA (FIX) Q3 2026: A Record Quarter the Market Sold Anyway
Comfort Systems USA reported Q3 2026 after the close on October 22: revenue $3.77B (+54% YoY) and EPS $13.91 (+69%) both beat consensus, operating margin widened to 16.6%, and backlog hit a record $17.81B — up 90% year over year, with same-store backlog up ~85%. Technology (mostly data centers)…
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Noise vs. the Mega Trends: What Capitulation Hides
The Nasdaq just had its worst day since June, the leaders are capitulating, and the AI trade looks like it is unraveling. But look underneath: the average S&P 500 stock already fell 18-20% while a couple dozen mega caps held the index calm, Eaton's electrical backlog is up 43% with data center...
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Quanta Services: The Builder of the AI Power Era
Quanta Services is the company that physically builds the AI era: North America's largest grid contractor, with roughly 70,000 craft-skilled workers who string the transmission lines, wire the substations and connect the data centers. In plain English: what Quanta does across its business lines...
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Today's Market and Portfolio Rotations
The calm indexes are a mirage: 25 mega-caps held up the surface while the average S&P 500 stock quietly fell 18-20% in a hidden correction. We walk through the five macro shocks that drove 2026's volatility, the AI momentum trade's rise and mid-year cap ex reckoning, why the generals falling last...
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Deckers Outdoor (DECK) Q2 FY27: Record Quarter, Cut Guidance
Deckers reported record Q2 FY27 revenue of $1.48B (+3.5%) and EPS of $2.31, beating expectations, but cut full-year sales guidance to $5.70-5.725B as HOKA decelerated to +6.8% and U.S. athletic footwear turned promotional. Management chose brand health over chasing revenue: full-price discipline...
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Eaton: The Electrical Backbone of the AI Buildout
Eaton is the electrical backbone of the AI buildout and the electrification of everything else. In plain English: what Eaton makes (transformers, switchgear, breakers, backup power, and now liquid cooling and ready-built electrical rooms), why it cannot fail and cannot be rushed (lead times of…
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Amphenol: The Nervous System of Everything
A plain-English investment thesis on Amphenol, the company that makes the connectors, fiber optics, cables, antennas, sensors and power delivery parts inside nearly everything electronic. We walk every business line: AI data centers, cars, factories, defense, aircraft, networks and medical. Then...
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American Express Q3 2026: The $895 Platinum Bet Is Paying Off
American Express beat on earnings and raised full-year guidance in Q3 2026: adjusted EPS of $4.68 (+13%), record revenue of $20.1B (+9%), billed business +8% to $454B, provisions down to $1.0B with a 1.8% write-off rate. Alex and Jordan break down the premium card flywheel, the Platinum refresh…
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Bloom Energy Q3 2026: Selling Time to Power
Bloom Energy's Q3 2026: record revenue of $1.24B (+138% YoY) beat the ~$1.07B consensus, non-GAAP EPS of $0.94 beat the $0.69 estimate, product revenue crossed $1B in a quarter for the first time, and gross margin expanded to 34.5%. Management raised FY26 guidance for the third time this year...
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Racking Up the Power Shortfall: America's 33-Gigawatt AI Problem
A deep dive into this week's power update on the US data center power shortfall. The updated model raises 2026-28 incremental US data center power demand to 97 GW, with a gross shortfall of 57 GW and a net shortfall of 33 GW (34% of chip demand) after time-to-power solutions — roughly six New…
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L'Oreal Q3 2026: The Cleanest Beat in Years
L'Oreal accelerated to 7.7% like-for-like sales growth in Q3, beating consensus by nearly two points, with professional haircare and dermatological beauty both running near 14%, luxury accelerating on fragrances, and China growing almost three times faster than the market. Shares jumped to a…
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Tesla Q3 2026: Margins Rebound, Cash Flow Turns Positive, Robotaxi Miles Grow Eightfold
Alex and Jordan break down Tesla's third quarter of 2026: revenue of 28.05 billion dollars and adjusted earnings of 48 cents a share ahead of consensus, auto gross margin ex-credits rebounding to 18.1 percent, free cash flow swinging back to a positive 1.53 billion, FSD attached to more than 75...
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P&G Q1 FY27: The Volume Quarter — Tide, Pampers & Pantene Grow on Units, Not Prices
Procter & Gamble beats on sales and EPS as 2.4% volume growth returns; margins compress on a .4B commodity headwind; FY27 guidance held; Thorne acquisition lifts all-in sales outlook.
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Blackstone Q3 2026: The Fee Machine Carries a Frozen Exit Market
Distributable earnings of .32 a share beat the .26 consensus but fell 13% as exits froze. Fee-related earnings rose 6%, 3 billion of inflows pushed AUM to .37 trillion, infrastructure returned 6.4% on data-center strength, and BCRED redemptions stayed elevated at double the 5% cap. Alex and…
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Union Pacific Q3 2026: Record Revenue, the Intermodal Surge, and the $85B Norfolk Southern Merger
Alex and Jordan break down Union Pacific's record third quarter: revenue up 15% to $7.2B, EPS $3.49, a 27% intermodal revenue surge, the fuel squeeze on the operating ratio, and where the $85B Norfolk Southern merger stands with regulators ahead of a targeted first-half 2027 close.
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Nasdaq Q3 2026: The Tollbooth Keeps Compounding
Nasdaq beat on both lines this morning: $1.48B revenue up 13%, adjusted EPS $1.04, with record $141B index inflows, record 18% fintech ARR growth, and the tokenization and always-on roadmap. Alex and Jordan break down the numbers, the segments, the call color, bull vs. bear, and the watch list.
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CBRE Q3 2026: Data Centers on Fire, Deals on Ice — Earnings Deep Dive
CBRE Group beat on core EPS ($2.05 vs $1.96 consensus, up 28%) but missed on revenue ($11.5B vs ~$11.8B expected). Alex and Jordan break down the tale of two companies: critical infrastructure services up 80% on the data-center buildout (path to ~$7B in 2027 revenue) versus a transaction business...
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Spotify Q3 2026: The Tollbooth Widens — 306M Subscribers, Record Gross Margin
Spotify beat where it counts: 306M premium subscribers vs 305M guidance, 788M monthly users, revenue up 16% to about 5 billion euros, a record 33% gross margin, and operating income above guidance. The one blemish is EPS of 2.48 euros vs 2.84 consensus, below the operating line. Q4 guides to…
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Prada Q3 2026: 1% Organic Growth, Miu Miu Cools, Versace on Track
Prada's Q3 trading update: group revenue +1% organic (1.49B euros incl. Versace, in line with consensus), extending the organic growth streak to 23 quarters. Prada brand retail +1%, Miu Miu -3% against a +41% comp, Americas leading while China stays soft. Versace integration on track ahead of...
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Nestlé Q3 2026: Volume Is Back — 4% Organic Growth Beats as Turnaround Gains Pace
Q3 2026 trading update: Nestlé delivered 4.0% organic sales growth versus ~3.4% expected, but the real story is volume — real internal growth hit 2.8%, the best quarter since 2021, while pricing moderated to 1.1%. Alex and Jordan walk through the category winners (water, petcare, food and…
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Hermès Q3 2026: Leather Goods on Fire, Stock on Sale
Hermès Q3 revenue of €4.1B (+4.3% organic) missed expectations and the stock fell to new lows — but leather goods accelerated to +10.8%, China is stable, and the scarcity machine keeps compounding. Alex and Jordan break down the quarter.
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Microsoft FY26 Annual Report: Record Profits, a $678 Billion Backlog, and the Cap Ex Question
Microsoft's fiscal 2026 annual report, summarized: revenue $331.8B (+18%), operating income $155.2B (+21%), Azure past $100B (+41%), Microsoft 365 Copilot past 30 million paid seats — and commercial remaining performance obligation up 84% to $678B, more than two years of revenue already…
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Thermo Fisher Q3 2026: The Lab Recovery Is Real
Thermo Fisher beat and raised: revenue +9% to $12.14B with 6% organic growth, adjusted EPS +15% to $6.68, and FY26 guidance lifted on revenue, EPS and free cash flow. Pharma Services and clinical research led, China grew low double digits, and biotech funding is improving — the life-sciences...
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Abbott Q3 2026: A Choppy Quarter, a Slower Libre, and a Nutrition Spin-Off
Abbott's Q3 2026 was in line on the numbers — sales of $13.0B, comparable growth of 7.0%, adjusted EPS of $1.42 — but the stock fell as management cut full-year comparable sales growth guidance to ~6% and guided diabetes care to low-to-mid single-digit growth for the next few quarters....
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SAP Q3 2026: The €10 Billion Quarter — AI Is Driving the Cloud Migration
SAP crossed €10B in quarterly revenue for the first time as cloud revenue grew 26% and current cloud backlog rose 26% at constant currencies to €24.1B, ahead of expectations. Non-IFRS operating profit rose 18% to €3.03B with the margin widening to 29.5%, and free cash flow jumped 36%. SAP moved...
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NextEra Energy Q3 2026: The Regulated Compounder Meets the AI Power Rush
NextEra Energy's Q3 2026: adjusted EPS of $1.24 beat consensus, up 9.7% year over year, while revenue of $8.09B missed. FPL's regulated machine compounded on 9.2% growth in regulatory capital employed, Energy Resources pushed its backlog to 36.7 GW, and the data-center large-load pipeline topped…
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The Seven Mega-Themes Driving Global Commerce
Global GDP runs on spending — what consumers buy, what businesses invest, what governments purchase. This QuickTake walks the seven mega-themes capturing where that money flows: consumer platforms and spending, tech, AI and semis, defense and aerospace, the experience economy, power and energy...
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SharkNinja: The Product-Velocity Machine at a Full Price
Alpha Brands Research initiates on SharkNinja (SN) with a Hold and a $206 base target: a superb consumer business whose stock has already paid for it. LTM sales of $6.91B (+17.5%), a 13th straight double-digit quarter in Q2 (+22.2%), and growth led by beauty (+65%) and cooking (+36%) while…
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Hedging Tech Concentration Risk
Great Janus Henderson analysis here
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Meta Q3 2026: The Ad Machine vs. the AI Bill
Meta's Q3 2026 was two stories at once. The ad business beat: revenue of $64.6B, up 26%, with ad impressions up 10% and price per ad up 14% as AI targeting lifts the auction. Underlying EPS of $7.40 (excluding a one-time $9.9B legal charge from the state attorneys general settlement) beat the...
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The Trust Problem: Why Financial Advice Runs on 'Trust Me' — and Why That Era Is Ending
Thesis: the financial advisory industry has reinvented its pricing three times — stockbroker commissions, asset-based fees, free trading — without ever fixing its central defect: there is no reliable way for an investor to know whether an advisor is any good. Key points: most advisors keep no...
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Intuitive Surgical Q3 2026: The Beat-and-Selloff Deep Dive
Intuitive Surgical beat Q3 2026 expectations on every line — revenue up 22% to $3.05B, adjusted EPS of $3.00 up 25%, record system placements of 546 units with the da Vinci 5 cycle accelerating — yet the stock sold off hard. The reason: U.S. da Vinci procedure growth decelerated to 10% from 12%…
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Coatue CTEK: One Ticket to Anthropic, OpenAI and the Private AI Stack — At What Price?
Coatue's CTEK is a tender-offer fund giving qualified clients one-ticket access to late-stage private tech — Anthropic (13.1% of NAV), OpenAI, Revolut, Databricks and Stripe — plus a public book anchored by Meta and TSMC, in a clean 1099 wrapper with no K-1s or capital calls. Class I is up 53.6%...
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EssilorLuxottica Q3 2026: Beating the Bar on the Toughest Comp Ever
EssilorLuxottica reported Q3 2026 revenue of 7.49 billion euros, up 7.2 percent at constant currency, beating the 7.36 billion euro consensus — on top of last year's record quarter (+11.7%). For the first time, management disclosed wearables revenue: 486 million euros, up 20%. Asia-Pacific grew...
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SpaceX Q3 2026: The SI Inflection — $14.6B Revenue and the $20B Cap Ex Question
SpaceX's third quarter of 2026 was a transformation print: revenue up 161% to $14.6B and a swing to $4.4B of net income, driven by the Super Intelligence segment's jump to $7.6B on cloud compute agreements, the Cursor acquisition, and Grok. Starlink's Connectivity engine — 13.6M consumer...
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Netflix Q3 2026: The Margin Machine Beats, the Ad Business Trims
Netflix beat on EPS (/bin/bash.87 vs /bin/bash.82 consensus) as operating margin hit 34.6%, up from 28.2% a year ago, on revenue of 2.87B (+12%). Churn improved year over year globally and in the US, better than forecast, and 2026 price increases were absorbed cleanly — the engagement bears got…
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MSCI Q3 2026 Deep Dive: Expense Guide Holds, Stock Rallies
MSCI's Q3 2026 print beat on revenue (892M, +12.4%) and adjusted EPS (5.11, eight cents over consensus). The decisive item, the full-year expense guide that sank the stock 10% after Q2, held firm, with only interest expense raised; the stock rallied about 5%. Alex and Jordan walk the KPIs: total...
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Music in the Air, Ten Years On: The Business Moves From Adoption to Monetization
Ten years after streaming rebuilt the music business, the debate has shifted from adoption to monetization. A new long-term industry model — the first upward revision since 2022 — sees global music revenue growing from roughly $112B to about $198B by 2035. Alex and Jordan work through the three...
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Following the $1.6 Trillion Money Trail: Where AI Cap Ex Actually Lands
Strategy research maps 2027's ~$1.6 trillion of AI investment — hyperscaler and neocloud cap ex plus the leases headline numbers miss — down to single-stock revenue. About 65% of the spend lands as S&P 500 revenue (~5% of 2027 index sales, ~25% of index sales growth), and Nvidia alone captures...
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Quality Breaks Out: The Mid-Cycle Playbook and the Stocks That Screen Best
Strategy research this week argues the market is mid-transition from early-cycle to mid-cycle — and quality has broken out. The quality factor sits at a new 52-week high, up about 6% since mid-August while the equal-weight S&P 500 fell nearly 4%, powered by an earnings-revisions spread between…
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Northrop Grumman Q3 2026: A Margin Beat, a Tax Tailwind, and the 2027 Sandbag Debate
Northrop's Q3 EPS of 7.89 dollars beat consensus by ten percent — but roughly forty cents of the seventy-one cent beat came from a 13.4 percent tax rate nobody modeled, against roughly thirty cents of genuine operating upside led by Aeronautics margins. Thesis: the franchise is compounding…
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Return of the Mall Rat: The American Mall Is Coming Back
For two decades the mall was retail's easiest obituary. The data now argues back. Foot traffic is growing again in 2026, and survey data shows 48% of 16-34 year olds visited a mall in the last month, more than any other age group. The sales growth gap between mall-based and off-mall softlines...
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GE Aerospace Q3 2026: Inside the Quarter — Orders, Workscopes, and the Cash Debate
A deeper look inside GE Aerospace's third quarter: where the earnings beat actually came from, a 27.9% commercial engines margin, orders up 49% with equipment orders more than tripling, heavier workscopes and spare parts growth above 20%, the free cash flow debate (.04B vs roughly .2B consensus),...
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Staples: Selective in a Tepid Tape
A pre-Q3 deep dive on consumer staples in a no-volume-growth world. The setup: muted US volumes, a pressured low-end consumer, pricing largely exhausted, and costs rising again — pointing to a Q4 margin squeeze. We walk the near-term scoreboard name by name — Church & Dwight's out-of-consensus...
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RTX Q3 Deep Dive: Anatomy of a Beat — Tariff Refunds and the $130B Raytheon Backlog
A companion deep dive on RTX's Q3 2026 print. Adjusted EPS of $2.26 beat consensus of $1.78 by 27% — but roughly $410 million of tariff cost recovery (about $250M at Collins Aerospace, $160M at Pratt & Whitney) did some of the lifting. We run the beat both ways: ex-item EPS of roughly $2.02 still...
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Blackstone: The Private Markets Machine Meets Its Liquidity Test
Alpha Brands Research initiates on Blackstone at 107 dollars, 46 percent below its high. The fee engine is intact: 1.35 trillion in assets, record inflows of 262.5 billion, distributable earnings up 26 percent, and 7.47 billion of accrued gains waiting for exits. But three liquidity questions...
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ABOUT THIS SHOW
Humans can absorb multiples more audio content than written. To that end, this podcast is for absorbing as much intelligence as possible as the catch-all for interesting articles, research reports, or podcast summaries. I hope you enjoy the knowledge as much as we do.
HOSTED BY
The Team
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Humans can absorb multiples more audio content than written. To that end, this podcast is for absorbing as much intelligence as possible as the catch-all for interesting articles, research reports, or podcast summaries. I hope you enjoy the knowledge as much as we do.
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