North Dakota Soybeans Under $9! No China Demand = Big Trouble

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 The Biggest / The Largest1:28 North Dakota Soybean Mess5:06 WSJ Farm Piece7:59 Brazil Corn Update9:22 Crop Ratings12:26 Grain Shipments🌎 China Trade War Pressures SoybeansThe ongoing trade war with China continues to squeeze US soybean demand and crush basis levels. 🚢 With no Chinese buying, Northern Plains farmers face cash bids under $9/bu as PNW export demand dries up. Elevators are slashing bids, leaving some of the weakest basis since 2018.📉 Market Stress & Farmer StrugglesThe Wall Street Journal highlights farmer challenges: record crops 🌽🌱 but poor prices and rising costs mean profits are slim to none. Analysts warn breakeven corn prices could rise toward $4.66–$4.94/bu next year. Relief may hinge on the new Farm Bill or the $59B farm safety net in the One Big Beautiful Bill.🇧🇷 Brazil Corn UpdateBrazil’s second corn harvest is 98% complete, with slow farmer selling and strong domestic demand. Early planting of next year’s crop is slightly behind schedule, but forecasts call for favorable rains. US corn remains cheaper by $9/ton on the global market, keeping exports competitive.🌽 US Crop ConditionsCorn: 71% good/excellent 👍 (2nd best in 10 years)Soybeans: 69% good/excellent 🌱 (best since 2020)Spring wheat: 49% good/excellent, well below average ❌Winter wheat harvest: 98% complete ✅🚢 Export InspectionsCorn: 51M bu (+39% YoY)Soybeans: 14M bu (down from last week)Wheat: 35M bu (+71% YoY)👉 Don’t forget to subscribe for daily updates and drop a comment with your take on the markets. 💬👊