NRIX Stock: Nurix Tripled After a $700M Roche Deal — Is the Good News Already Priced In?

Nurix Therapeutics (NRIX) Q2 FY2026 — Nurix Therapeutics reported a fiscal Q2 net loss of $(0.81) per share on ~$9M of collaboration revenue — but the story is the June Roche partnership on its BTK degrader bexobrutideg ($700M upfront, up to $2.3B), which lifts pro-forma cash to ~$1.14B and has driven the stock ~200% off its lows to near $25. Nurix is a clinical-stage protein-degradation biotech with no product revenue — so we value it on cash + deals + pipeline, not earnings. After the transformational Roche deal it has a ~$1.14B pro-forma cash fortress (covering ~45% of its market cap), a 50/50 US stake in a validated BTK degrader, and wholly-owned pipeline optionality. But after a triple to 52-week highs, our sum-of-the-parts lands ~$26 vs the ~$25 price — de-risked, but a speculative HOLD. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, DE-RISKED, SPECULATIVE) — base-case value ~$26 vs ~$25 today. KEY METRICS: - Q2 FY26: collaboration revenue ~$9M; net loss ~$(89.5)M, or $(0.81)/share; R&D ~$88M; burn ~$90M/quarter - Cash $443.5M at quarter-end (pre-Roche); pro-forma ~$1.14B including the $700M Roche upfront (lands next quarter); no debt - Roche deal (June 2026) on bexobrutideg (BTK degrader): $700M upfront, up to $2.3B total, 50/50 US co-develop & profit split, tiered ex-US royalties - Pipeline: bexobrutideg (Roche-partnered, pivotal Phase 2 + Phase 3); NX-1607 (wholly-owned oral CBL-B IO) + a second wholly-owned degrader - June EHA data: response rates in the 80s-low-90s% in relapsed CLL/SLL with encouraging durability — the validation that drew Roche - Additional partners: Sanofi (STAT6, milestone this quarter), Gilead (IRAK-4, Phase 1), Pfizer (degrader-ADCs) - Market cap ~$2.5B; enterprise value ~$1.35B pro-forma; stock ~$25, up ~200% off the lows, near 52-week high ($25.08) - Analysts: ~15/16 Buy, average target low-$30s (~25-30% upside), high $45, low $25 - Sum-of-the-parts (cash + risk-adjusted deal + pipeline): base ~$26 vs ~$25 price — roughly fair; the risk is binary clinical-trial outcomes What to watch: the bexobrutideg pivotal (Phase 3) trial data, the two wholly-owned pipeline programs (NX-1607, second degrader), and any new pharma milestones Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.