OBBBA and a Cold, Hot, Cold Forecast

On Tuesday, we will release our third quarter 2025 Guide to the Markets. On Wednesday, we will host conference calls with financial professionals to discuss the outlook. It’s an outlook dominated by the impact of dramatic policy changes on a relatively slow-growing U.S. economy. The result, in the short run, may resemble a wave, as the economy cools down in the second half of this year, heats up in early 2026 and then cool down again. However, in the long run, the net effect of these policy changes could result in an economy with slightly slower growth and higher interest rates than seemed likely at the start of the year. This being the case, it is hard to justify this spring’s rebound in U.S. stocks to new record highs less than three months after teetering on the brink of a bear market. Consequently, investors would still be well-advised to seek broader diversification in areas such as international equities, value equities and alternative assets.