Oil is up and markets expect rate hikes

This week, Brian Daingerfield and Paul Robson take a whistle-stop tour of major currencies ahead of a flurry of central bank policy decisions next week.Key takeaways* Rising oil prices have become the primary driver of FX markets.* Markets increasingly expect further rate hikes across several major economies.* The ECB remains on course for possible tightening if energy prices stay elevated.* The Bank of England’s debate centres on timing rather than direction.* Fiscal credibility will be an increasingly important factor for sterling.* The Federal Reserve is likely to provide little forward guidance despite hawkish market pricing.* Structural reforms, rather than intervention alone, may ultimately determine the yen’s outlook.Host: Brian Daingerfield, Co-Head of G10 FX StrategyPaul Robson, Co-Head of G10 FX StrategyYou can also find this episode of Currency Exchange on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.This episode was recorded on 23 July 2026.For any terms used please refer to this glossary https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html