Oil up, equities down, quagmire deeper

Kia ora. Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news of oil jumping while equities slide as surging crude prices stoke inflation ‌fears. Oil tankers are ablaze. Iran said it will keep the Straits of Hormuz closed and there doesn't seem much Trump can or will do about that. And the Gulf crisis is severely disrupting global air travel. Meanwhile the IEA says "The war in the Middle East is creating the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market." (OPEC however seems to be ignoring the folly.) In the US, jobless claims were little-changed last week at the headline level, the small actual decrease accounted for by seasonal factors. There are now 2.15 mln people on these benefits, very similar to a year ago but a big increase from two years ago US housing starts rose in February, just as they did in the same month a year ago and to the same levels. US exports and imports eased slightly lower in January. Their overall trade deficit fell to -US$ bln in the month largely because services exports rose. From a year ago their deficit is +-US$75 bln lower (-0.2% of GDP.) Canadian exports fell and their trade surplus with the US narrowed in January while the deficit with other countries widened. They reported a January trade deficit of -C3.7 bln mostly due to fewer car exports to the US. India reported CPI inflation of 3.2% for February, up from 2.7% in January and that takes it back to levels they had in April 2025. In Australia, inflation expectations ticked up further in the March Melbourne Institute survey, up to 5.2% for the year ahead. While this is 'only' a rise from the 5.0% rate in February, it is the highest looking-ahead level this survey has reported since January 2023, and is a significant rise from the 3.6% rate in March 2025. It only adds fuel to the expectations the RBA will hike next week at its review on March 17. Aussie equities fell, benchmark AGB yields rose further, and they were rising even before this news broke. And in the upcoming Australian budget, talk is they will assume CPI inflation in the "high 4s" for the year ahead Global container freight rates rose +8% last week to be now only -10% lower than year-ago levels. Outbound China to the EU was up +19%, to the US West Coast up just +4%. Rates to China fell. Bulk cargo rates fell -14% in the past week as demand dried up. From a year ago these rates are now +36% higher, although the base was weak in 2025. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.26%, up +5 bps from yesterday. The price of gold will start today down another -US$52 from yesterday at US$5119/oz. Silver is down -50 USc at US$85/oz today. American oil prices are on the move up and by the time you hear this they will likely be over US$100/bbl. The Straits of Hormuz remain essentially closed, the situation even worse now. The internationally coordinated release of strategic reserves has had essentially no effect. The Kiwi dollar has slid another -50 bps against the USD from yesterday, now just over 58.6 USc. But against the Aussie we are unchanged at 82.7 AUc. We are down -60 bps against the yen. Against the euro we are down -30 bps at 550.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today down -40 bps at just over 62.2. The bitcoin price starts today at US$70,437 and down -0.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.4%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again on Monday. Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI