Pete Savage - 'Capital flows where confidence goes': BNZ on India FTA for AG

New Zealand's free trade agreement with India could be the most significant market access deal in a generation. For the agricultural sector, the confidence it creates may prove just as important as the tariffs it removes. Peter Savage, Head of Customer & Industry Insights for Agriculture at BNZ, says New Zealand exports around $2 billion to India each year. That places India at roughly 14th in New Zealand's export rankings, around the same level as Canada or Vietnam, he says. From day one of the agreement, 57% of duties on that trade are removed, he says, and over time, 95% of current exports will be tariff-free. "Access to market for New Zealand, where 80% of our products go offshore, is fundamentally important." He says dairy is not a major beneficiary, and that was always expected to be the case. Sheep meat, horticulture, forestry, seafood and honey are among the sectors set to benefit.  “Wine previously had 150% tariffs going up into India, which is essentially prohibitive, and that's being removed by about up to 80%, which really opens up that market.” India’s middle class is growing to around 700 million people, he says. The country’s GDP grew by about 6.5% in 2025, but New Zealand does not need to capture all of that market. Selling high-value products to a fraction of the market is where the opportunity lies. "India is such a consequential market, it's the highest population in the world, a growing middle class.  “It's just a really exciting opportunity." Savage says the China FTA signed in 2008 is a useful reference point, the first comprehensive deal between any country and China. "You can see the confidence that gave the New Zealand agricultural sector — dairy development was built off the back of that. “You hope that this trade deal provides that incentive for young people to get into market with that confidence for the next 10, 20, 50 years." He says getting into market and building relationships is what follows a deal opening the door. "It's incumbent on us to get up into market to understand what's important to those customers, and to develop that story and relationship." For over 160 years, BNZ's Agribusiness Partners have worked alongside farmers, bringing the expertise to support them through the seasons. To see how that support can work for you, speak to your local partner. Search BNZ Agribusiness. This podcast contains general information only and does not constitute financial or professional advice. Opinions expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily BNZ. BNZ is not liable for any losses resulting from the content. Eligibility, lending criteria, terms and fees apply to BNZ's First Farm Programme. Limited availability. Open to first dairy farm or herd owners only. CountryWide CONNECT with Andy Thompson & Sarah Perriam-Lampp is our daily rural show livestreamed from 11am-1pm. Visit https://country-wide.co.nz/connect/ on how to watch / listen.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.