Prediction Markets Are a Scam With a Chart

Level up your note-taking with Plaud NotePro at https://bit.ly/4c9s3bC and use code “PBOYLE” for 10% OFF!Amazon: https://bit.ly/483LfoU#PLAUD #NoteTakerPrediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket have been described as "truth machines" that produce more accurate forecasts than traditional polling. In this video we look at how they actually work, why the federal government is fighting individual states over who gets to regulate a bet on a football game, how a soldier allegedly used classified military intelligence to win money on a crypto betting site, and why quantitative trading firms are now paying traders $200,000 a year to build algorithms that systematically take money from retail bettors. We also look at the political connections behind these platforms, the academic research on the social cost of making it very easy to gamble from your phone, and why — after all of this — you still can't trade futures on onions.Patrick's Books:Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPFCorporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The ChannelPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinanceBuy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyleVisit our website: https://www.onfinance.orgFollow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://bsky.app/profile/pboyle.bsky.socialBusiness Inquiries ➡️ [email protected] Boyle On Finance Podcast:Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/7uhrWlDvxzy9hLoW0EYf0bApple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/patrick-boyle-on-finance/id1547740313Google Podcasts: https://tinyurl.com/62862nveJoin this channel to support making this content:https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCASM0cgfkJxQ1ICmRilfHLw/join Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices