Pressure on the Herd

BEEF Let's start with the bad news. We’ve been expecting this to happen for several months, yesterday the USDA announced the discovery of the New World Screw Worm infecting a calf in La Pryor, Texas, about 50 miles north of the border. This will keep the border closed to live animals for the foreseeable future, keeping pressure on the already small domestic beef herd. The New World Screw worm is a flesh-eating parasite that has been eradicated from the US since the 1970s, but it's back! Control measures include releasing sterile male flies to reduce population growth. This is certainly worth keeping informed about. Now, with that bit of cheery news, let's look at current beef markets. Last week was a holiday week so harvest was only 448K head. Demand remains good, not great. I’m expecting to see market moves higher as we head to Independence Day. Grinds continue to increase every day. Middle meats were struggling to move higher the last couple weeks, but they are back on track with steady moves higher, again I think right into Independence Day. Thin meats, brisket, flanks, sirloin flap, are mostly steady to lower. This continues to be a market with tight supply, make sure to stay ahead of your needs. POULTRY The decline in boneless skinless breast meat continues next week. The heavy production we’ve seen so far this year is finally catching up a bit on the suppliers. They are discounting breast meat to keep it moving. Tenders are holding steady another week while wings finally bottomed out last week and are moving up, just a bit, but they are moving up again. The avian flu reports over the last week, 7 new cases affecting 107K birds, mostly ducks. GRAINS Soy was up like a rocket all week, until today. There will be increases in soy oil in the short term, hopefully we can see this turn back down. Wheat is giving back all its recent gains and we should see some lower prices on wheat. Corn closed at $4.39 today down from last week’s $4.62. New crop estimates will not be pushing this market higher anytime soon.  PORK Pork bellies closed today at $120 up from last week’s $112. This is still great pricing for this time of year. I do expect bellies will be moving higher into the summer. One analyst estimated we could see $180 bellies which should be about the top end of this run. Butts continue to be in demand and pushing prices up. Ribs getting the same push higher. Loins are holding steady, don’t see anything to push them higher right now.  DAIRY CME Thru Thursday’s close Butter is up 7, taking back all those recent declines. Both barrel and block are down 1. Production is good, I don’t see much to push cheese higher right now. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn