Prof. Siegel and Jim Bianco Write the Missing FOMC Playbook

Show from 2026-08-14 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss weaker retail sales, inflation trends, strong corporate earnings and the market continuing to reach new highs. The Prof notes that some recent economic data has softened, but higher-frequency indicators are not yet pointing to a major slowdown, while lower oil prices and encouraging inflation details remain supportive for markets. He also focuses on Fed policy, arguing that while avoiding forward guidance is defensible, the Fed still needs to be clearer about its reaction function, the inflation measures it is watching and the conditions that would lead to a rate change, with Jackson Hole potentially providing that clarity. Jim Bianco joins the discussion with the Prof to break the issue into forward guidance, the Fed’s reaction function and the increasingly independent voting behavior of committee members. (21:12) Jeremy continues with Jim Bianco, Sam Rines and Chris Gannatti to discuss their takeaways from Camp Kotok, including the massive scale of AI capital spending, the federal deficit, geopolitical risk and the changing nature of warfare as drones and lower-cost technologies challenge traditional military spending. Sam expands on defense procurement and tariffs, while Chris discusses developments in quantum computing and the roadmaps public companies are laying out toward fault-tolerant systems. Jim then walks through his current bond-market positioning, including a more neutral stance on duration, corporate bonds and mortgages, along with exposure to convertible bonds tied to the AI theme. He also explains why moderately higher rates may be consistent with a strong economy, where rates could begin to pressure equities, and why lower mortgage rates alone may not solve housing affordability. The conversation closes with global markets, Japan, rising rates overseas, currency intervention, the yen and the effect of tariffs on corporate capital flows. About the guest: Jim Bianco is President and Index Manager at Bianco Research Advisors. He is also the President of Bianco Research LLC. Since 1990, Jim’s commentaries have offered a unique perspective on the global economy and financial markets. Unencumbered by the biases of traditional Wall Street research, Jim has built a decades long reputation for objective, incisive commentary that challenges consensus thinking. Jim appears regularly on CNBC, Bloomberg, and Fox Business, and is often featured in the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, Grants Interest Rate Observer, and MarketWatch. Jim has a Bachelor of Science degree in Finance from Marquette University (1984) and an MBA from Fordham University (1989). Learn More about the Bianco Total Return Index: https://www.biancoadvisors.com/ WisdomTree: https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments