Prosecutorial Politics and the Mortality of Young Men

This episode investigates how local prosecutors influence public health outcomes, specifically focusing on community mortality rates between 2010 and 2019. By analyzing closely contested elections, the authors find that electing a Republican prosecutor leads to a 6.6% reduction in deaths among men aged 20–29. This decline is primarily driven by a significant decrease in firearm-related homicides, suicides, and accidents. While increased prison incapacitation explains some of the effect for Black men, the broader driver across racial groups is an increase in criminal convictions. These convictions trigger federal and state legal restrictions on gun ownership, effectively reducing firearm access for individuals at a higher risk of violence. Ultimately, the study suggests that prosecutorial discretion and the enforcement of conviction-based firearm prohibitions serve as critical, yet underappreciated, levers for improving public safety and health.