رادیو سیگنال | تابستانِ گرمِ بورس تهران | 2 تیرماه 1400

اگر نگاهی به تاریخچه بورس تهران بندازیم میبینیم که در دوره های مختلف و با شروع به کار دولت جدید بازار یک مدت رنج شده یعنی شاهد نوسانات مثبتو منفی بوده و بدون استثنا بعد این دوره های رنچ زدن شاهد شکل گیری ی موج صعودی قوی بودیم. در شرایط فعلی که دولت جدید تا چند هفته دیگه شروع ب کار میکنه پیش بینی میشه بازهم شاهد این رویه تکراری باشیم. چرا که از لحاظ بنیادی اگر پارامتر مهم p به E(تی تی ام) رو مبا قرار بدیم، میبینیم که این پارامتعر در مقاطعی بیشتر از 16 هم دیده اما الان حدود 9.5 قرار داره که باتوجه به فرارسیدن فصل مجامع و تقسیم سود شرکت ها میتونیم انتظار کاهش بیشتر p به E(تی تی ام) رو داشته باشیم. اکثر تحلیل گرها معتقدن حدود 8 الی 9 این پارامتر برای بورس تهران به عنوان ناحیه تعادلی حساب میشه یعنی چی؟ یعنی انتظار کاهش بیشتر و شدید شاخص شبیه اون چیزی ک در از مرداد ماه شاهدش بودیم، دور از انتظاره. بررسی داده های هفتگی شاخص هم تایید کننده این نکته اس ک کف بازار حوالی 900 هزار واحد قرارداره و مقاومت جدی بالای سر شاخص در کانال 1500تا 1600 هزار واحد قرار داره. به این معنی که احتمال نزول بیشتر از ناحیه 900 هزار و همینطور صعود از ناحیه مقاومتی ساده نخواهد بود. بنابراین به نظر بورس نوساناتش طی هفته ها و ماه های اینده محدود به این دو ناحیه باشه و بعد ازین نوسانات مقطعی میتونیم انتظار تکرار سیکل های سنتی یعنی برگشت به مدار صعودی و حتی ثبت سقف های جدید رو داشته باشیم.

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رادیو سیگنال | تابستانِ گرمِ بورس تهران | 2 تیرماه 1400

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