Redwire (RDW) Q2 2026 Earnings: Revenue +90%, And None Of It Was Space

Redwire Corporation (RDW) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026): revenue $117.1M, up 89.6% y/y, a record. Adjusted EPS -$0.09 vs a ~-$0.156 bar - a BEAT (the -$0.19 on the screens is GAAP). Gross margin a record 27.8% vs -30.9%. Adjusted EBITDA -$3.2M. 8-K accepted 4:28pm ET Aug 5 (AMC), so Aug 6 is the reaction: closed $11.83 (+10.4%); Aug 7 added 14.9% to $13.59. Redwire posted record revenue, record gross margin and a record backlog - and every one of them came from Defense Tech, the drone business it bought with stock in 2025. The Space segment, the entire reason this stock carries a space multiple, shrank 2.6%, swung to a segment-level EBITDA loss, and booked just $0.37 of new work per dollar billed. Revenue per share FELL 23.0%. THE CALL: SELL (3/5, RECORD EVERYTHING, AND NONE OF IT WAS SPACE) — base-case value ~$8.65 vs ~$13.59 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: SELL 3/5, fair value $8.65 vs the $13.59 close on Fri Aug 7 (-36.4%). FCF is negative so we use a path-to-profitability model: grow Defense Tech 30%/yr and Space 3%/yr to ~$950M of 2030 revenue, hold Defense Tech at the 22.8% segment margin just delivered and Space at 10%, less $120M corporate = $57M of 2030 Adjusted EBITDA. 15x, discounted 4 years at 12%, plus net cash = $3.39. A 4.5x-2028-sales model gives $10.57, bull $17.10. Weighted 45/35/20 = $8.65. - THE PRINT: revenue $117.074M, up 89.6% y/y, a record. ADJUSTED EPS -$0.09 vs -$0.31 a year ago, which BEAT the ~-$0.156 bar. The -$0.19 widely printed as a miss is GAAP; the bridge is +$0.02 stock comp, +$0.01 debt costs, +$0.07 for a $14.5M non-cash warrant mark. Gross margin a record 27.8% vs NEGATIVE 30.9%. R&D $12.5M vs $1.7M. Adjusted EBITDA still -$3.2M; Q2 FCF -$35.3M. - THE ANGLE: Defense Tech revenue went $5.078M to $61.882M (+$56.8M) while total revenue rose only $55.3M - so it supplied 103% of the growth and SPACE SUBTRACTED. Space revenue $55.192M vs $56.682M, -2.6%; LTM $208.9M vs $220.3M, -5.2%. Segment Adjusted EBITDA: Defense Tech +$14.083M (22.8%) vs Space -$4.203M, so Defense Tech is 143% of segment profit. Space book-to-bill 0.37 vs Defense Tech 2.35. - DILUTION + THE RAISE: shares outstanding 249,221,102 vs 191,915,804 at Dec 31, up 29.9% in six months; weighted-average diluted 220.47M vs 89.55M. Revenue per share $0.531 vs $0.690, DOWN 23.0%. Total liquidity $607.8M (+366.9%) was funded by $566.2M of H1 stock issuance via the ATM, against H1 operating cash flow of -$31.6M and FCF -$48.0M. Guide $450-500M unmoved since Feb 25. - BACKLOG QUALITY: backlog a record $542.1M vs $411.2M at Dec 31. Of the $130.9M build, $108.7M (83%) was Defense Tech, whose backlog nearly doubled to $220.2M; Space backlog rose only 7.4% to $322.0M. Backlog recognised at a POINT IN TIME - product shipped, not multi-year programs - jumped to $186.2M from $81.0M. H1 revenue $214.0M, so the guide needs $236-286M in H2. Street: Buy, $14.88. What to watch: UP: revenue +89.6% to a record $117.1M, a record 27.8% gross margin, Defense Tech on a 22.8% segment margin and a 2.35 book-to-bill, LTM book-to-bill 1.52 vs 0.87, record $542.1M backlog, $506M net cash, accelerating NATO and US Army demand. DOWN: Space revenue -2.6% (LTM -5.2%), a segment EBITDA loss, a 0.37 Space book-to-bill, revenue per share -23.0% after 29.9% dilution, Adjusted EBITDA still negative, guide unmoved since February. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.