Retail in Bitcoin Is Back in the Game: Demand Rose from -8.2% to +4.4% in 6 Weeks

Bitcoin retail demand momentum has turned sharply higher, but the recovery is still not fully confirmed by absolute transfer volume.In Morning Brief #167, we break down the divergence between Retail Demand 30D Change and $0-$10K transfer volume. Retail Demand 30D Change rose from -8.2% on April 5 to +4.38% by May 12, after crossing the zero line on April 27 and peaking at +6.31% on May 6.The problem: absolute retail transfer volume recovered only from $336M to $351M on a 30-day moving average basis, still below the earlier Q1 range of roughly $365M-$375M.Bottom line: retail contraction has stopped, momentum has recovered, but the full return of retail capital is not yet confirmed.