Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief

This brief is about how holder conditions and fundamental valuation have converged in the same zone. Supply moved deeply underwater around $60K, while CVDD shows where the market's structural bottom level sits.

The bounce off $60K is being driven by returning buyers, not a short squeeze. Taker Buy Sell Ratio closed above 1.0 in 8 of the last 10 days, while Funding Rate stayed positive for 10 straight days from June 6 to June 15. That means the rally is being supported by aggressive demand, but at the same time it shows that long leverage is starting to build up again.

This brief is about the reversal in flows from May to the present. The logic is simple: BTC inflows to exchanges increase supply pressure, while stablecoin outflows deprive the market of fuel for a rebound.

Miner metrics have entered a stress zone comparable to post-halving drawdowns, but the market has not yet reached a full-scale capitulation on the scale of 2018 and 2022. The key question is whether the Puell 30DMA will hold above 0.50, or whether the market will shift into survival mode.

Capital is leaving the Bitcoin network, and participant behavior confirms a capitulation regime - sales are being made at a loss. This brief examines how close the current stress is to the March extremes and what needs to happen for the regime to change.

For 22 straight days, the market has been realizing net losses. But MVRV Z has already cooled to 0.32, versus a historical average of 1.71.Stress is there. Overheating is gone. What this means for Bitcoin right now, I break down in Morning Brief #187.

Bitcoin bounced 3.7% off $60K, but Open Interest fell 6% with positive funding - a short-covering rebound, not new leverage. Watch OI for confirmation.

Bitcoin is testing the February low, while the current net realized loss of -$7B is already heavier than it was directly at the February price low. At the same time, it is still below the peak of winter capitulation at -$14B. The key observation - this time, seller pressure is building as price approaches the bottom, rather than fading before it.

Over the past month, Bitcoin has pulled back after the May recovery and returned to a test of the February low at 60K - the level that became the local bottom after the decline from the cycle peak of 125K. Against this backdrop, the market structure index shows weakening without capitulation, while the crowd sentiment index has fallen into extreme fear.

Over the past month, the market has pulled back from the May highs to February levels. Both charts capture the same reversal, but at different speeds: the slow Bitcoin Impulse has already dropped to -59, while average monthly demand from takers has only now broken below the zero line.

Since the start of May, the market regime has completely reversed. What previously pushed price higher is now working against it. Two charts show how exchange outflows and short squeezes have been replaced by BTC inflows to exchanges and cascading long liquidations. Against this backdrop, price has pulled back from the May high toward the $70K zone.

Bitcoin realized volatility fell 56% to multi-year lows as market cap grows slower than realized cap. A coiled, de-risked setup. Watch the 200-day average.

BlackRock and Strategy-affiliated wallets moved BTC into Coinbase Prime infrastructure. A sale is not yet confirmed, but the market has received a new supply overhang and now has to show whether it can absorb that volume.

BTC is returning to exchanges after months of outflows, while stablecoins are simultaneously leaving exchanges - this is a double risk-off signal.

Bitcoin bounced +2.7% from the May 23 low, but the underlying futures microstructure deteriorated much faster than price. In this episode, we break down why the rebound initially looked constructive, what failed beneath the surface, and why the collapse in Taker Score from 84 to 31 matters more than the shallow price pullback suggests. We also compare the taker-driven reversal to the smaller move in the composite microstructure index, explain how price can stay elevated briefly on inertia even after aggressive buyer flow has faded, and outline the warning signs that would confirm a broader shift toward risk-off.

In this episode of Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief, we break down last week’s local BTC pressure setup: +18K BTC moved onto exchanges, while U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw roughly -16K BTC in outflows.Together, these flows created around 34K BTC of local supply pressure. The key question is whether ETF demand can return quickly enough to absorb exchange-side selling risk, or whether BTC remains in a short-term risk-off regime.

May 2026 has put short-term holders in a vulnerable position: BTC is trading below their aggregate cost basis, while Net Realized P/L has moved into negative territory for the first time in a month.

BTC bounced toward $77K after positive geopolitical headlines around Iran, but the underlying market structure remains unconfirmed. In this episode, we break down why Coinbase Premium remains negative, what range-bound Open Interest says about derivatives participation, and why the current move still looks more like technical relief than a structural reversal. This is an analytical discussion of Bitcoin market structure and macro risk, not financial advice.

In this episode of Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief, we break down why Bitcoin’s bullish impulse has weakened just as macro pressure intensifies. Bitcoin Slow Impulse has moved into negative territory for the first time since early April, while the US 30-year Treasury yield has broken higher to 5.20%, tightening conditions for risk assets. The discussion focuses on whether this is a temporary tactical setback or a deeper shift in market structure, and what institutional investors should watch as macro risk rises. This episode is for market analysis only and is not financial advice.

Supply in Profit has recovered after the capitulation phase, but short-term holders are still not realizing sustained profits. There is still no behavioral confirmation of a reversal.

Two structural signals confirm one conclusion: bulls have lost control. The market failed to hold above the zero zone, sellers absorbed the bullish impulse, and price is once again pinned to the lower part of the structure.

Bitcoin approached the $82K zone three times and pulled back three times: STH-SOPR shows that short-term holders are using every rally to exit, confirming structural overhead pressure. Until price secures a move above the 200D SMA and STH SOPR holds above 1.0, the rally remains without fuel.

A brief on two signals working together: taker volumes point to a weakening bullish impulse, while funding confirms that traders are not rushing to open longs. The market is losing bullish inertia while bearish positioning in derivatives remains in place.

Bitcoin is trading above $80,000, and STH Loss Pressure has dropped to zero for the first time in several months. At the same time, the STH share of total BTC supply continues to decline, pointing to a weakening short-term speculative overhang.

Bitcoin retail demand momentum has turned sharply higher, but the recovery is still not fully confirmed by absolute transfer volume.In Morning Brief #167, we break down the divergence between Retail Demand 30D Change and $0-$10K transfer volume. Retail Demand 30D Change rose from -8.2% on April 5 to +4.38% by May 12, after crossing the zero line on April 27 and peaking at +6.31% on May 6.The problem: absolute retail transfer volume recovered only from $336M to $351M on a 30-day moving average basis, still below the earlier Q1 range of roughly $365M-$375M.Bottom line: retail contraction has stopped, momentum has recovered, but the full return of retail capital is not yet confirmed.