Ryan Bridge: What the OCR says about the state of our economy

Remember just a few weeks ago how Sir John Key wanted 100 point cut from Reserve Bank? We'll, they've almost given him what he wants.  It's easy to be an armchair critic of the boffins down at Number 2 The Terrace - "They should have gone for 50." "Club 25 was too cautious."  But markets listen as much to the guff after the big cut announcement as much as they do the actual announcement. Need proof? Already retail banks have started slashing mortgage rates, both variable and fixed.  That's on top of the cuts they already made last week, pricing in yesterday's 25.  Some of the big ones will, in the coming weeks - I reckon we'll get down to 4.5% on short-term fixed. Look how the currency markets reacted - these guys were surprised.  Coming out with what is essentially a triple shot to 2.5% by Christmas sends is sending a strong signal. It's easy to get caught up in the hysteria of calls for double shot all at once, but the bank can have its cake and eat it too. Get businesses and households spending without risking inflation, which is touching cloth on 3%. Yes, they do look through near-term stuff. But there's also heat in the provinces - it's not all about Auckland. And remember the days of Orr where the Reserve Bank hiked the rate quick as a sherpa up Everest before nosediving it back down again? You can achieve the same outcome without risk overcooking things again.  It's only six or so weeks till the next call. If they need to do more, they can do more then.  There's no doubt we've had a Q2 recovery blip, but we've had promising July manufacturing and improving services data out last week. The message is clear: we're walking back to Everest base camp, not running.  And given the over and under cooking that went on under Orr, that's probably the right speed So, I'm with the four in Club 25 with a caveat - for now. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.