Ryan Bridge: world voters are picking certainty at best

No doubt Donald Trump's brand is dicey at home at best but globally, the world has watched on with a mix of amusement and feigned concern.  These results out of Canada and Australia at the weekend show that brand has turned toxic... like a beef Wellington at a family dinner party.  We've all seen the host - the chef - tuck in... but now we're thinking hmm... do we want to do the same.  We can't get much closer in style and substance to Canada and Australia when it comes to democracy - both chained to the Westminster system we inherited Mother England... and both of our cousins have turned on their political oppositions as Trump upends the global order.  To rub salt in the wound both Poilievre and Dutton lost not just their elections but their seats.  We spoke about this on Friday but... but what is the message here? Trump is toxic.  Poilievre's problem was one of style - he sounded and campaigned too much like Trump - the airports hanger with the branded plane behind shots on the nightly news.  Dutton's problem was more complicated... first. He ran a crap campaign. Realising a defence plan so expensive it gets funding to 35 of GDP and means you can't Albo's tax cuts in a cost-of-living crisis - and then only releasing that plan two weeks out from campaign day was dumb.  But it was also about that word economists are spitting out like a bad steak - uncertainty. Don't ask Luxon though - he gave a bizzare response when asked about this yesterday... Basically... the Aussies and the Canadians simply picked the most economically credible parties in the face of uncertain times.  What? Those parties he's endorsing are both from the left. That's the equivalent of kicking his sister parties (The Aussie Libs and Canadian Conservatives) in the shins. Made no sense. I think he wanted to avoid mentioning the trump bump.  What's actually happening here is not really about parties.  In times of uncertainty, you don't change your horse mid-steam. Voters stick with what they know. When the worlds in a spin, you don't know up from down, Albo from a-hole.... human nature, for the most part, is to do nothing and hope it goes away. Why risk a new government of unknown quantity? Singapore's arguably just done the same. The counter factual to this obviously is America, but remember the American economy was actually growing for past two years, consumer spending was strong, and inflation had come down earlier than ours. So that's a different set of circumstances.  The best comparison for what's happened in Australia and Canada in the past week is 2020, New Zealand.  A bunch of people really worried a perceived global threat rallying around flagpole and rejecting a campaign that wasn't neither well-run or nailing the public mood.  Which Judith Collins' disastrous 2020 attempt didn't.  Whether it was Trump, or a reaction to him. For Luxon to attribute the fiscal credentials of left-wing parties abroad with their success was an unnecessary own goal. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.