S2Ep122 | Three Indices Closed At The Exact Low, And Brent Crossed 100 And Held It All Night | There Is No Green In Asia This Morning | Both Sides Just Piled Onto 23,500 | 10th Sept Thursday

Three indices closed yesterday at the exact low of the day. Not near the low. On it. Brent crossed 100 and then held above it all night. And this morning there is no green anywhere in Asia.THE CLOSE. The Nifty settled 23,431.50, down 203.60, and the low of the day was 23,431.50, the same number. The Sensex and the BANKEX did the same. There was no bounce into the close and nobody stepped in at the end. India VIX rose about six and a half percent to just under 12, the first real bid for volatility in this entire run.23,500 IS THE MAP. The biggest call add on the entire 15 September board was 72.19 lakh at 23,500, and the biggest put add was 34.82 lakh at the same strike. Both sides landed on one price again, and this time it sits 68 points above us rather than below. Under it a magnet, and a trigger once taken and held. Put call ratio 0.591, max pain 23,600, band 23,310 to 23,550, so max pain sits above the top of the band and the board wants a level today's own volatility does not reach.THE SENSEX EXPIRES TODAY with max pain 75,000, 236 points above spot, against 75,900 on Tuesday's file. The market fell 813 points and the magnet fell 900. That is the opposite of the Nifty expiry, where the magnet sat still and the market walked away from it. A magnet that follows the market is being repriced, not defended.POSITIONING. The foreign index futures short went to 2,76,250, another run high, and has never once turned in this run. But one book changed sides: professional desks went from net short 44,990 index calls to net long 14,552, so they stopped selling upside and started buying it on the day the index closed on its low. Retail sold 88,058 more naked puts, to 8,31,678 short.OIL, AND IT HELD. Brent settled 101.21 and is 101.12 this morning, after an overnight range of 100.94 to 101.90. The entire range sat above 100, so this is a hold rather than a spike. Yesterday morning it was 66 cents away and named as the risk that outranked everything else; it took one day. The rupee weakened again to 95.11, against the pound, the euro, the yen and the yuan, on a day the dollar index did nothing, for a second session running.THE BOND SELLOFF WENT GLOBAL. Europe closed down hard, the CAC minus 1.98 and the DAX minus 1.69, while German yields rose 2.85 percent and French 2.47. This morning Japan is up 1.68, and Korea, Brazil, Canada, Australia and America all rose too. Yesterday this was a European story; today it is a global one, and India is the only major that has not moved. And there is no green in Asia at all: Hang Seng minus 1.52, KOSPI minus 1.03, Taiwan minus 0.93, Nikkei minus 0.88, when last night the KOSPI was up 1.38.THE PLAN. GIFT Nifty is 23,496, up 5.50, which puts the open at 23,420 to 23,460, so we start flat and roughly on yesterday's low. Asia is red, Europe closed down two percent, yields are rising almost everywhere, and we are flat. That combination is the market refusing to follow, and it only stays true until the first hour says otherwise. Resistance 23,500, then 23,600, then 23,700. Support 23,400, then 23,300, then 23,000 a long way back. Band 23,310 to 23,550. No new structure unless the market comes to a level, because volatility just turned up off a very low base and that makes selling premium a worse trade today than it was yesterday.Prior episode graded 4 on 5. Full scorecard on rupeecase.com.Data sourced from NSE, BSE, SEBI, NSDL and CDSL. Cash and option figures are the 9 September close, global figures the morning of 10 September. New episode every trading day at 8:30 AM IST, streaming first on rupeecase.com. Educational content, not investment advice. SEBI RA application under process.