Scott Bessent Retires from Farming + FBA Payment Estimates

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌾 USDA Farm Aid UpdateThe USDA confirmed it has no plans for additional farm assistance beyond the recently announced $12 billion aid package.Farmers continue to face weak markets, high input costs, and trade disruptions tied to President Trump’s tariffs.Estimated farm losses could reach $44 billion this year, far exceeding available aid.USDA acknowledged the shortfall but cited funding limitations.Payments are expected to be distributed by late February, with Farmer Bridge Assistance Program payment rates due before year-end.🏛️ Treasury Secretary Sells FarmlandTreasury Secretary Scott Bessent has completed the sale of his North Dakota farmland following ethics scrutiny.Through a partnership, Bessent owned 5,000+ acres generating rental income.In October, he referred to himself as a “soybean farmer,” drawing criticism because the land was held purely as an investment.Ethics rules required divestment upon taking office, but illiquidity delayed the sale.The land was sold on December 15 for roughly $12.4 million to an entity tied to a longtime friend and business partner.🌽 Brazil Corn Crop TrimmedSafras & Mercado lowered Brazil’s corn crop estimate to 142.9 mmt, slightly below its prior forecast.The estimate still sits well above USDA’s outlook (131 mmt) and Conab’s 138.8 mmt.Weather remains mostly favorable with abundant rainfall and near-to-above-average temperatures expected.🇨🇳 China Soybean Imports: No U.S. Beans in NovemberChina imported zero U.S. soybeans in November for the third straight month, versus 2.8 mmt last year.Brazil accounted for 72% of November imports (up 49% YoY).Argentina surged, supplying 22% of imports (up 634% YoY).Through November, China imported 103.8 mmt, with the U.S. making up just 16%.Since the October trade truce, traders estimate China has bought 7+ mmt of U.S. soybeans.Recent U.S. shipments should appear in December customs data.USDA’s Export Inspections report today may confirm additional shipments.🚨 USDA Flash SaleU.S. exporters sold 134,000 mt (5 mil bushels) of soybeans to China for 2025/26 delivery.Total Chinese purchases for the current marketing year now stand at 3.845 mmt (141 mil bushels) across 15 flash sales.📊 CFTC Fund PositioningThe CFTC released another delayed Commitment of Traders report.For the week ending December 9:Funds were net sellers of corn, soybeans, and SRW wheat.Soybean net length remains one of the largest on record.The CFTC expects to be fully current by month-end.🐄 Bullish Cattle on Feed ReportAs of December 1:Cattle on feed totaled 11.73 million head, down 2% YoY.November placements fell 11% YoY, the lowest for the month since 1996.Marketings declined 12% YoY, matching expectations.The report is bullish, but holiday timing may limit near-term market reaction.🏭 More Packing Plant Closures PossibleTight cattle supplies continue to pressure packer margins.Plants are operating below capacity, raising closure risks.Recent closures and cutbacks by Tyson highlight the strain.Restrictions on Mexican feeder cattle imports have worsened supply issues.Even if borders reopen, rebuilding the U.S. herd will take years, not months.