SEA Weekly - Episode 16: What's Driving ASEAN Supply Chain Risk Repricing Across Frontier Markets

**June 14, 2026**The best supply chain news ASEAN frontier markets have had all year landed on Friday night — a US-Iran peace deal that could unwind the Strait of Hormuz risk premium. But Miguel Santos argues the peace deal only fixes one axis. Governance risk — in Myanmar, Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines — is now repricing upward on its own axis, and the two vectors do not cancel. Emily Chen hosts Miguel Santos for a deep dive into the multi-axis risk model: why energy costs may be heading down, but the net risk premium for frontier supply chains may not fall nearly as much as a single-variable model would predict. The era of "ASEAN-level" risk underwriting is over.https://seaweekly.com/posts/2026-06-13-sea-weekly-asean-supply-chain-risk-repricing-frontier-markets/