EPISODE · Apr 8, 2026 · 11 MIN
嗜血猪周期，前所未有
from 虎嗅·商业有味道
今年3月底，生猪价格已经跌到八年新低，海南等省的价格甚至不到4元/斤。有行业“晴雨表”之称的猪粮比，在4月4日已跌至4.23:1，远低于5:1的一级预警线。历史级别的罕见局面，预示着一场非典型的寒冬正在上演。表面看，供给端的能繁母猪存栏量已经在逐步下滑，但实际上巨头企业的养殖效率已经大幅提升。非洲猪瘟影响已经显著减小，而且相比以往，牛羊鱼和禽类的替代效应逐步显现。毫不夸张地说，生猪养殖行业有史以来最煎熬的至暗时刻已经来临。01:15 残酷寒冬03:55 超长周期07:39 洗牌风暴
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