Soft Landing on the Horizon? (E193)

After reviewing stocks (0:48), bond (2:43) and commodities (4:26), plus bitcoin (5:17) topping $100,000, DoubleLine Portfolio Managers Jeff Mayberry and Samuel Lau unpack the past two weeks’ macro news (6:10). ISM manufacturing, payroll and jobs data suggestive, Jeff says, suggest that “maybe the Fed is going to be able to do the soft landing.” Turning to federal funds rate probabilities (12:27), future contracts are pricing in 3½ cuts through the end of 2025, inferring Sam notes more restrained policy than suggested to date in Fed guidance. Looking ahead to the Dec. 9-13 market week, topping their watch list will be the November CPI report, due Wednesday – the last CPI print before the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Dec. 18.