Stagflation Creeps Back Into View
from Mind the Macro Hosted by Michael Roberts and Jeff Baldwin
This week the stagflation theme refused to fade. On Friday the Bureau of Economic Analysis released the PCE price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation. Headline and core PCE rose 2.9 per cent and 3.0 per cent respectively. More troubling than the levels was the recent momentum. Inflation has firmed over the past three months, an unwelcome development that further complicates the Fed’s path forward. The same release cycle brought a softer than expected Q4 2025 GDP report. Headline growth registered just 1.4 per cent, unsettling markets. Consumption cooled from recent quarters, but the reaction to the top line number appears excessive. The government shutdown alone shaved nearly a full percentage point from growth, distorting the underlying signal. Taken together, the data reinforce a familiar and uncomfortable mix: slower activity alongside renewed price pressures. For central bankers, it is the most awkward of combinations.
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