Stock Vol Just a Bad Dream to Rip van Winkle (E213)

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Fixed Income Asset Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel (0:22) review markets and macro through the week ended May 2. “If you were a Rip van Winkle investor who went to sleep March 31 and woke up today, what would you find?” After the tariff-unleashed sell-offs, Eric notes Rip would find equities up across the major indices. Rates (4:97) moving higher farther out the yield curve led to lower returns in most of the fixed income universe for the month with bright spots being high yield corporates and bank loans. Commodities (6:57) were down more than 4% from March 31 through May 2, led by energy down 14%, with precious metals being the bright spot, up 6%, and gold up 3%. Economic data (8:47) for the week, Ryan notes, “took more of a front stage compared to previous weeks that were dominated by tariffs.” Among those prints, he covers the JOLTS report, with weaker-than-expected job openings reported for March and a healthy balance between job openings and total unemployed workers. Consumer confidence has deteriorated due to concerns about tariffs. ISM manufacturing shows more contraction into recessionary territory. On a positive note, nonfarm payrolls showed improvement amid abating wage growth. Looking to the week ahead (21:11), topping Eric and Ryan’s calendar will be the Federal Open Market Committee meeting Wednesday May 7 and Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell’s news conference. The futures markets have priced in only a 3% probability of a cut to the target federal funds rate. The news conference promises to be more interesting. “Everybody is going to be watching Jay Powell to see how he tap-dances around the questions that he’s going to get regarding his job.”