″🟩 Strait of Hormuz traffic rises, US fears China has access to restricted chip manufacturing machine, Ebola deaths rapidly increase || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #25/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur

Ebola is really about to take off. Executive summary Geopolitics: A peace deal between the US and Iran was officially signed by both parties, and traffic subsequently rose in the Strait of Hormuz but remained well below pre-war levels. Ukraine carried out its largest attack on Moscow to date, striking an oil refinery, and began EU accession talks. Will shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz be over 50% of pre-war levels on July 15, 2026? Our forecasters give this a 43% (30% to 60%) probability, but see below for the operationalization of the question. What about on October 15, 2026? Forecasters think there's a 61% (60% to 65%) chance. Will Ukraine become a full member of the European Union before 2030? Our forecasters believe there's a 22% (11% to 45%) probability. Technology and AI: Open-weight models are narrowing the gap with closed-weight frontier models on some benchmarks. The US fears that China has access to a lithography machine used to manufacture chips that is produced exclusively by Dutch company ASML. Will the US government explicitly prevent an AI model trained by a company other than Anthropic from being released to [...] ---Outline:(00:28) Executive summary(02:43) Geopolitics(02:45) Middle East(04:25) Europe(05:46) Technology and artificial intelligence(10:18) Biorisk(12:32) Nature and climate --- First published: June 22nd, 2026 Source: https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-rises-us --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.