Strategic Positioning: Don't Chase the Bounce

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Wednesday, February 4, 2026 — Strategic Positioning. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: WTI bounced to $63.59 yesterday, up 0.6% after Monday's 5% crash. Bouncing off the zero Fibonacci level around $61.21. OPEC+ confirmed production pause through March. Saudi Arabia at 10.1M bpd, Russia at 9.57M bpd. 1.65M bpd voluntary cuts remain. They're trapped. US ramping Iran sanctions. Eight entities and nine vessels sanctioned Jan 23. Iranian drone shot down near US carrier in Arabian Sea. Tensions rising. Our position unchanged. This bounce is noise. $63-64 is resistance. Short rallies. NATURAL GAS UPDATE: Henry Hub at $3.34, up 0.73%. Milder temps through mid-Feb pulling prices back. Storage ending winter at 2,000 Bcf, 9% above 5-year average. Output hit 111.6 bcfd. LNG exports near record. Our position: $3.30-$3.50 is the accumulation zone. Weather pulled us back. Gift. Add here. THE DECOUPLING: Crude trapped by oversupply. Gas supported by LNG ramp. Short crude rallies, add gas on dips. Trade the data. Not the headlines. For energy opportunities: [email protected]