Strategic Positioning: Week 8

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Monday, February 16, 2026 — Strategic Positioning: Week 8. WEEK 8 OPENS. Eight weeks running. The decoupling thesis continues to deliver. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: WTI dropped to $62.86 on Friday. Down from the $65.13 Iran spike we called to short on Thursday. That's a $2.27 drop in one session. Geopolitical premium fading exactly as predicted. EIA forecasts WTI to average $59 in February, falling to $57 in March, $55 in April, $53.50 in May. Then $50 for remainder of 2026. IEA sees 3.7 million bpd surplus. OPEC+ may resume supply hikes in April. OUR READ: The $65 ceiling held. Rally rejected. Mean reversion to $52 in progress. Stay short. OUR POSITION: Short any bounces toward $65. Target $52. NATURAL GAS UPDATE: Henry Hub fell to $3.04 on Friday. Down 6.3% in one day. BUT HERE'S THE SETUP: Storage at 2,214 Bcf as of Feb 6. That's 130 Bcf BELOW five-year average. 97 Bcf below last year. EIA projects end of March below 1.9 Tcf. Structural deficit. Weather models showing colder late February. Heating demand coming back. EIA 2026 forecast: $4.30 average. That's 40% above current levels. OUR POSITION: $3.00-$3.05 is prime accumulation. Target $4.50+. Trade the data. Not the headlines. For energy opportunities: [email protected]