Stuck in the Cycle: Ukraine, Iran, US Politics #149

This week now news story is exploding and everything is on fire. Ukraine, Iran, US politics: three stories, three cycles, all stuck. Also, we recorded four years to the month since our first episodes on the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which felt like the right moment to take stock.On Ukraine, the war of attrition is slowly shifting. Ukrainian strikes deep into Russian territory, including a refinery fire producing a visible black cloud over Moscow, are making the conflict impossible for the average Russian citizen to ignore. Crimea is under pressure, Lukashenko appears to be distancing himself from Putin, and Putin's image as an invulnerable strategic mind has taken serious damage. At the same time, Zelensky is showing his tendency to overplay a strong hand, most recently by honouring a Ukrainian nationalist battalion responsible for killing tens of thousands of Polish civilians during World War II, antagonising one of his most important European allies for no clear strategic gain.On Iran, the memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran is mostly symbolic, and the situation is worse than it was before the attacks began in February. The Strait of Hormuz is at roughly 90 percent of pre-war traffic but oil prices remain elevated, months of supply chain disruption have not been undone. JD Vance told Israel it cannot kill its way out of every security problem and that it is attacking its only remaining powerful ally. He is correct, and it is painful to say so.We close with the Democratic and Republican parties, both rudderless, both in identity crisis, and a country that has apparently settled on ranch dressing as its one remaining point of national consensus.This podcast is an individual project between us, Dario Hasenstab and Balder Hageraats. We are supported by our producer Stefani Obradovic from Western Bubble Insights & Strategy. If you would like to get in touch with us, write us an email at [email protected].