Swing States, Broadcast Buys to Drive Record Political Ad Spending in 2026

With the 2026 US midterms shaping up to be a major windfall for political advertising, this "MediaTalk" episode unpacks how media companies should position for it. Control of Congress is up for grabs, with a handful of "toss-up" Senate and House races. On top of that are the gubernatorial races. Taken together, record-level spending is expected. Local broadcast remains a cornerstone, with estimates of $4 billion in political revenue for local TV. Meanwhile, connected TV is no longer incremental — it's becoming a primary budget line thanks to targeting and reach beyond shrinking pay TV. The conversation also highlights how station groups with heavy exposure in battleground states — and potentially a reshaped landscape if major consolidation proceeds — could disproportionately benefit. The episode considers how local broadcasters should package linear and connected TV to defend pricing power. Also, which states and ad markets will drive the most spending? More S&P Global content: Technology, Media, & Telecoms Featured experts: Steve Passwaiter, president of Silver Oak Political Peter Leitzinger, analyst at S&P Global Market Intelligence Kagan. Credits: Host/Author: Mike Reynolds Producer/Editor: Sarah James www.spglobal.com www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence