Teck Resources Stock: A RECORD Copper Quarter — So Why We Say HOLD (TECK Q2 2026)

Teck Resources (TECK) Q2 2026 — Teck Resources (TECK), the Vancouver miner transforming from a coal-and-metals house into a focused copper producer, reported a record Q2 2026 (in C$, IFRS): adjusted EPS of C$1.93 crushed the ~C$1.41 estimate (a ~C$0.52 beat) on revenue of C$3.61B (+79% YoY). Adjusted EBITDA roughly tripled to ~C$2.2B — a record 61% margin — as copper production jumped 25% to 135,900 tonnes into record ~US$6.05/lb prices. Copper gross profit (pre-D&A) more than doubled to C$1.8B (from C$673M); zinc added C$353M. Operating cash flow was C$1.7B and the net cash position GREW C$756M in the quarter, with liquidity of C$10.3B including C$6.1B of cash. Strategically, Teck is advancing its merger of equals with Anglo American to create 'Anglo Teck,' a global copper champion, expected to close in 12-18 months with Chinese regulatory approval the key remaining step. The catch: the stock has run ~90% off its ~$31 low to ~$60 (US), near its ~$71 high, on record copper. Haircut US$6.05 copper toward mid-cycle, put a 5.5x EV/EBITDA on normalized ~C$6.5B EBITDA plus net cash, and fair value lands ~US$57 — roughly where it trades. Our call: HOLD, 3/5 — a world-class copper transformation, executed beautifully, but priced near fair value at peak prices with a big merger still to clear. Financials in C$; price/valuation in US$. Teck Resources is a company in the middle of a dramatic makeover — from a sprawling coal-and-metals miner into a focused copper powerhouse, built on tier-one, long-life assets like the QB mine in Chile. Q2 2026 was a record quarter (reported in Canadian dollars): adjusted EPS of C$1.93 crushed the ~C$1.41 estimate on revenue up 79% to C$3.61B, and adjusted EBITDA roughly tripled to about C$2.2B — a record 61% margin. The driver was copper: production up 25% to 135,900 tonnes into record ~US$6.05/lb prices, with copper gross profit (pre-D&A) more than doubling to C$1.8B. The balance sheet is a genuine differentiator — net cash GREW by C$756M in the quarter, with C$10.3B of liquidity (C$6.1B cash) — a rarity in mining. And it's all happening while Teck advances a merger of equals with Anglo American to create 'Anglo Teck,' a global copper champion, targeted to close in 12-18 months (Chinese regulatory approval the last big hurdle). So the debate isn't quality — it's price and deal. The stock has run ~90% off its ~$31 low to ~$60 (US), near its ~$71 high, on record copper. We won't capitalize US$6.05 copper as if it lasts forever: on normalized ~C$6.5B EBITDA at 5.5x EV/EBITDA plus net cash, our fair value lands ~US$57 — roughly where it trades. Our call: HOLD, 3/5. A superbly-run copper transformation, but near fair value at peak commodity prices with a transformational merger still to clear. We're right in the Street's cautious zone — a soft, split Buy with US$ targets clustered in the mid-$50s to low-$60s (JP Morgan at Neutral). Own it for the assets, add on real weakness toward the low $50s. Not financial advice. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, A GREAT MINER, NEAR FAIR VALUE, AT PEAK COPPER — A RECORD QUARTER AND A MERGER, BUT LITTLE MARGIN OF SAFETY) — base-case value ~$57 vs ~$60.19 today. What to watch: the Anglo American merger clearing Chinese regulatory approval and closing while copper prices stay firm, plus continued QB out-performance — which would re-rate TECK toward the higher multiple a global copper champion deserves and prompt a more bullish stance; the risk to respect is copper mean-reverting from record ~US$6.05/lb toward mid-cycle, or the merger being delayed or renegotiated, either of which strips the peak-cycle premium out of the stock Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.