The Bifurcation

Vacancy is stabilizing. That sounds good. But rent growth is still getting crushed. We're talking 0.5 percent monthly, one to two percent annually. That's the weakest spring gains since 2014.Here's the real story: it's bifurcated. Forty-one of the fifty major markets are showing year-over-year rent improvement. But the Sun Belt is getting absolutely crushed. Austin, Phoenix, Denver, Atlanta seeing 15-21% rent cuts. Record vacancies. The post-pandemic construction boom is still delivering into softening demand. Austin alone went from massive permitting in 2024 to basically nothing in 2025. Ninety-seven percent collapse in permits. But developers are already planning 2026 starts for 2027 and 2028 delivery. They're betting that when supply dries up, they'll be positioned. Supply is finally peaking. Deliveries expected to drop to around 450,000 units in 2026, down from 595,000 in 2025. That's a massive shift. But demand is still there. 637,000 units were absorbed in 2025. That's the seventh best year ever. Coastal markets and low-supply markets are seeing rent growth. Sun Belt oversupply is still a problem. Single-family rents are rising while multifamily is flattening. Record rent gap between the two. The pattern is clear: Vacancy stabilizing. Supply peaking. But rent growth is bifurcated. Winners and losers are being determined right now. The operators who understand this moment, who can read the data and know where to actually deploy capital, they're the ones winning.Episode Sponsor: Rise 48 EquityRise 48 helps you protect and grow your wealth by investing in large multifamily apartment buildings. Vertically integrated property management. Vertically integrated construction. They do all the work.rise48.com