The Big Risk is No Longer Oil – Its Political Credibility.

Blain’s Morning Porridge April 8th, 2026: The Big Risk is No Longer Oil – Its Political Credibility.“It you attack Persia a mighty empire will fall.”Trump took the Off-Ramp. Markets are soaring, off to the races as the threats of global slowdown, recession and stagflation recede. But, for all the military power and competency on display – it’s a strategic defeat for the USA. That has massive implications for US Assets – Treasuries, Stocks, Investment, Market Confidence and Politics. It’s a double Porridge Morning – I will be out with a second Morning Porridge later this morning announcing a new Book!But first… A rant about Politics.President Trump took the Ceasefire Off-Ramp last night. Joy unconfined across markets. In the next few days oil, gas and the rest will likely flow out the Strait of Hormuz. Trump will claim the credit, but will anyone pay much attention to him? There will still be oil dislocations and there will still be uncertainty as to what follows, but this morning Markets believe it’s all over.It probably is.Trump is a creature of limited patience – as evidenced by the recent tone of his Truth Socials. He was very aware Iran had become a difficult to win war, impossible in the timeframe before the US Midterm elections. He has therefore taken the easy option. He will say he’s won – but he’s walking away from an unfinished fight. The Americans will leave some assets in the region, tell everyone loudly they are ready… We’ve seen this before.A humiliated and wounded Trump is not a positive for the US political economy – for bonds, stocks, the inward investment Trump thinks has been promised to him, or market confidence. Brand America has been tarnished. Trump punched the hornet’s nest but it’s still there. Iran may be pockmarked by piles of rubble, but the real damage is the cumulative effect on American credibility.  You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!