The Dark Side of Prediction Markets

Gav and Dave wade back into the increasingly unhinged world of prediction markets, starting with how Kalshi ended up fining and banning a handful of American politicians for betting on their own elections, which sounds small until you realize it’s basically insider trading with campaign posters.Then, the story gets serious. Jail time serious. They pivot to the much less subtle case of a U.S. military operator getting arrested after allegedly pulling in over $400,000 on Polymarket by betting on the capture of Nicolás Maduro using classified information. With the way things are, will more events like these continue coming out? Your guess is as good as ours--and you can probably go bet on it!Reach out to [email protected] with any comments, feedback, and hit that like button if you enjoyed it! We're always glad to have you on On the Fringe!Here are a few of our other episodes about predition markets:AI is So 2025 if Prediction Markets Get Their WayThe Fog of War and Profiteering on Prediction MarketsAll the best,Dave and Gavin