On the Fringe

(00:00:00) Intro and why we are covering this (00:00:52) Overview of two of the key pieces of legislation moving through Congress (00:03:13) Commonalities between and implications of the bills (00:07:08) Regulatory framework and enforcement (a major weakness) (00:09:13) A key solution the bill lacks--digital literacy and edcuation (00:10:20) Future considerations if the KIDS Act and the Safe Kids Act become law This week on the pod, Dave and Gav get into it about the SAFE Kids Act and other pieces of legislation regarding AI chatbots, social media, and child safety which put the burden on companies and big tech.As legislators around the world play catch-up with the social, economic, and legal implications of AI, we talk about how Constitutional rights may find themselves more in the crossfire—or in the crosshairs. This episode is part of our rolling coverage of developments involving AI and education.We’ve covered whether a college degree is worth it and what the front lines of preparing for an AI future look like. It’s likely not where you’d think!If you enjoyed the episode, shoot us a message, restack, and pass us some love and feedback. Please take a second to give us a quick star rating.We sincerely appreciate all the growing support our On the Fringe community provides. All the best from both of us,Dave and Gav

Five months after the quiet announcement that American troops were being deployed in Nigeria to combat the local IS franchise, an even quieter announcement that the 200-ish deployment has already come to an end.The strategic aims apparently having been met, the US’s engagement, which began with a barrage of Tomahawks on Christmas Day last year, has been wrapped up. Meanwhile, the Nigerian government has taken pains to highlight how information sharing between the two countries continues despite a physical withdrawal.Does the withdrawal mean mission accomplished for the U.S.? For the Nigerians? Let us know what you think!Here's our episode on why West Africa is falling to jihadists.All the best from both of us,Dave and GavinThe AFRICOM Seal is from wikimedia and can be found hereThe Nigerian Flag is from wikimedia and can be found here

Hello, On the Fringe Community! Here’s a quick thank you message as we wrap up season. We appreciate and enjoy your continued support—and we have more on the way!All the best from both of us,Dave + Gav 

Two people with uncommon names find out for the first time what it’s like having a common name + being confused for someone else.In the last couple of years, there have been several other On the Fringe podcasts that have come out. For the first time in both our lives (Dave + Gavin), we are being confused for someone else—and to be honest, it’s kind of weird and funny for both of us. Since we set up On the Fringe 2 years ago, we’ve done this as a hobby and a labor of love. It’s fun for Gavin + I, and we are talking about taking the podcast more seriously going forward—i.e. having a clearer upload schedule, producing more exclusive content for subscribers and loyal listeners, and monetizing the show.When we do decide to monetize the show, we will keep you all informed :)And if you have any ideas that could help us to build our show going forward, they’re ALWAYS welcome. Shoot us a message or an email at [email protected] the best from both of us On the Fringe!Dave and Gav

In this episode, Gav and Dave tackle the continuing problem of bear attacks in Japan by looking at a recent incident involving a smarter than average bear. As rural communities shrink and bears push into populated areas, especially in Tohoku, the country continues to struggle with all of the conflicts that ensue from overlapping habitats. Dave and Gav discuss why the problem keeps getting worse, propose radical solutions (especially for Japan), and why Japanese politicians continue to struggle with their ursine neighbors. What do you think Japan should do? Are they right on the money, or out to lunch like Yogi and Boo Boo digging thru a pic-a-nic basket? We covered the problem previously in Season 3. Here's a link to it. If you enjoyed the episode, drop us an email at [email protected] and send a couple of stars our way. We sincerely appreciate our growing On the Fringe Community.All the best from both of us, Dave and Gav 

Canada’s in a sticky situation…and, it’s not from maple syrup!In this episode, Dave and Gav look at the rise of the irrepressible Bishnoi Gang in Canada and what it says about the continuing evolution of transnational crime. They trace how a gang rooted in northern India developed reach far beyond its home turf, and connect that story to scandals surrounding Cricket Canada, where allegations of corruption and questionable leadership have cast a shadow over the sport.The result is an episode about the depressing ease with which institutions can be bent to serve interests they were never meant to protect and harm those they are intended to represent.If you enjoyed the episode, please hit the subscribe button, send a few stars our way, and share the podcast with a friend. You can also reach out to us at [email protected] Thank you, as always for listening to On the Fringe. We sincerely appreciate it!All the best from both of us,Dave and Gav

In recent weeks, autonomous Akıncı drones flown by the Sudanese Armed Forces (and likely the Ethiopians for the RSF) went head-to-head, marking the first recorded event of two autonomous weapons facing off. Both drones came from the same manufacturer, Bayraktar, a Turkish defense company.Listen in and learn why countries are increasingly turning to autonomous weapons on the battlefield, why the Sudanese Armed Forces are adopting drones, and what this may mean for future wars and military supply chains. Going deeper, will single suppliers be arming opposing sides, or will more autonomous weapons lead combat operations in the future? Will this trigger an arms race for more autonomous weaponry? What's your take?Let us know at [email protected] the best from both of us On the Fringe,Dave and Gavin 

Will algorithms be better decision makers than humans when it REALLY counts? Some countries are betting on it, while others are taking baby steps. We’ve got a short episode about what autonomous weapons are, what they do, and why they could be consequential to the future of war and humanity, much like other parts of the AI boom that we are living in.Please do us a favor and give us a rating or drop a comment on Apple Podcasts if you enjoyed it. We love hearing from our audience!All the best from both of us On the Fringe,Dave and GavIf you'd like to join us On the Fringe, shoot us an email! [email protected]

(00:00:00) The Counterfeit: Chinese spy-ops, and a possible future view of America (Feat. Dr. Ralph DeFalco) (00:00:49) Introducing Dr. Ralph DeFalco III (00:02:52) The Counterfeit: A geopolitical thriller as described by the author (00:08:40) Crafting a realistic scenario and characters (00:17:28) Layers of depth and meaning in the novel (00:20:16) How things change: creeping normalcy (00:26:13) Historical context, modern, and historic parallels (00:32:05) Final thoughts and where to find out more about the book A former intelligence professional provides an authentic look at intelligence operations and a potential dark future for the United States--in a gripping work of fiction. In this episode, Dave and Gav sit down with Dr. Ralph DeFalco, author of The Counterfeit, retired Naval Officer, and a national security operative with more than fifty years of experience, to talk about Chinese influence campaigns, economic coercion, and the blurry line between fiction and forecasting in the intelligence world.The conversation explores how speculative fiction can function almost like strategic modeling, where imagined crises have a habit of becoming uncomfortably plausible a few years later. Dr. DeFalco talks about plotting a novel as a labour of love and how he drew from history to create a believable and authentic environment. On the Fringe also taps into how influence actually works in practice and why democracies continue to struggle to respond to slow-moving forms of pressure.One thing I (Dave) forgot to mention in the interview is that I felt the book shines a light into Chinese society under the CCP, specifically about how the Chinese Communist Party secures the Chinese state, how Chinese intelligence operations are conducted, and how information is tightly controlled in China behind the great firewall.If you’re hooked, here’s a link to bookshop.org to purchase the book.(we make ZERO commission) As always, thanks as always for joining us On the Fringe and don’t forget to like, comment, subscribe, and share. All the best from both of us,Gav and Dave

In recent days, a now former Google software engineer, Michele Spagnuolo, was arrested and charged by the Feds in New York for wire fraud, insider trading, and a laundry list of financial crimes for using information gained from his position to make crooked bets on Polymarket, netting in over $1 million on very long odds. Why is it so important that the Feds are likely going to throw the book at him? It all comes down to regulation and who is in charge of prediction markets. What’s your take on the future of prediction markets? Will they be state, or federally regulated? If you enjoyed the episode, restack, share it, and let us know. We sincerely appreciate it!All the best from both of us On the Fringe,Dave and GavIf you have any insight for us, or would like to be a guest, shoot us a message at [email protected] 

(00:00:00) An introduction to 'Gold Bar Dave' (David Rush) (00:05:32) The craziest part and biggest miss of the investigation (00:08:25) Implications of the breach and why the FBI and IRS should leave no stone unturned In this episode, Dave and Gavin dive into a wild tale, and what may be the biggest publicly acknowledged counterintelligence failure in the 21st century for the U.S. Government that could lead to serious repercussions. Former officer David “Gold Bar Dave” Rush, who allegedly worked in the agency’s Science and Technology Directorate, was recently arrested after fabricating his time sheets, and likely worse—hoarding 300 kilograms of gold bars from the agency for several months.After his arrest, the FBI also discovered several million dollars in cash, and hundreds of thousands of dollars in luxury watches in his house. Moreover, it’s now been discovered that Rush had weaved an intricate web of lies that the agency and DoD (now the Department of War) had fallen for (or ignored) for over a decade, including lies about every credential he had for almost two decades. He had also joined the Senior Executive Service (SES) as one of the top civil servants in the U.S. Government.Here is the affidavit outlining Rush’s charges.If Rush’s charges are factually true and he is deemed to be guilty, these events point to critical missteps and tremendous failures that may lead to incredible damage to the United States once (if) the full story ever comes out, and, it should be a serious wakeup call for the U.S. intelligence community about how they vet officers working with some of the most sensitive information, in some of the most sensitive positions in the country. This is our take. Are we right on the money, or off by a long shot? If you enjoyed the episode, don’t forget to like, comment, share, and subscribe--and leave us a star rating :)  If you'd like to join us on the show, reach out at [email protected] sincerely appreciate your listenership, feedback, and our growing On the Fringe Community. All the best from both of us, Dave and Gav

(00:00:00) The slower the Strait of Hormuz gets, the faster things move in the Gulf (00:01:11) Podcast Starts here: Barnacles are growing on ships (00:05:37) Ramifications at the ballot box in November if shipping slows more (00:08:34) Changes in regional dynamics in the last three months (00:11:20) Existential issues for Pakistan--and Israel (00:14:09) The Gulf will be hotter and more crowded than before February 28 While marine traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has slowed down in the last few months, (Barnacles!) things are moving fast in the Gulf. And these events may be a signal that Pax Americana is ending in the region. In this episode, Gav and Dave dig into the stagnant security environment in the Gulf, where stranded cargo ships collecting barnacles have become a symbol of a region stuck in limbo, with trade still moving but nobody feeling particularly good about it. This week’s conversation connects maritime insecurity and rising shipping costs to the growing role of Pakistan as a formal military partner for Gulf states that is trying to convince parties outside the region that it’s a neutral third-party mediator.Dave and Gav also get into why negotiations keep going nowhere, talking on how the major players all want wildly differing outcomes and operate under political systems that reward displays of dominance and over the top claims more than compromise, leaving the region trapped in a crisis everyone claims to want resolved and nobody seems to want to settle.If you enjoyed the episode, share it with a friend, like, comment, and leave us a quick 1 word review. We sincerely appreciate it!All the best from both of us On the Fringe,Dave and Gav 

(00:00:00) Rebuilding democracy from the ground up: the Digital Democracy Project (Feat. Ramon Perez) (00:00:52) Introducing our guest, Ramon Perez and the Digital Democracy Project (00:03:18) The motivation behind the Digital Democracy Project (00:06:05) Gerrymandering, a major flaw in the current U.S. political system (00:09:10) More gerrymandering leads to more political apathy (00:11:57) Technology in democracy and electoral processes (00:14:39) A growing crisis of trust in politics, leaders, and media (00:17:26) AI as a cutting-edge tool for the masses to understand legislation (00:23:22) The future of American democracy Politics in the U.S. is a winner-take-all system. If there is no letting up as the country is becoming more polarized, how can voters still hold their elected officials accountable? There may be a solution! In this episode, Gav and Dave speak with Ramon Perez, AI technology executive and military veteran, from the Digital Democracy Project about the misaligned incentive structures shaping modern politics in America. Rather than treating misinformation or polarization as isolated failures, the discussion focuses on how platforms, lobbyists, media organizations, and representatives are rewarded for behavior that undermines trust and pushes the national discourse toward conflict.The result is an environment where bad incentives become self-reinforcing, moderation becomes risky and systems built to increase engagement slowly start influencing how institutions govern themselves, an alarming foundation for public life.But there’s hope—as long as we’re actively involved and actively participate in the process.Go to https://vote.gov/ to register to vote if you haven’t!To find out more about the Digital Democracy Project, go to: https://digitaldemocracyproject.org/If you enjoyed the episode, like, comment, share, and subscribe with a friend. We sincerely appreciate it!All the best from both of us On the Fringe,Dave and Gav

(00:00:00) How and why you should learn a foreign language (feat. Polyglot David Ramos) (00:00:55) Podcast Starts (00:02:00) How David started his language journey (00:08:01) Using obstacles life throws at you as motivation for growth (00:12:26) Gearing up to more difficult languages (Mandarin, Arabic, Korean) (00:19:57) How to get started learning a language (00:23:48) The long-term impact of learning a language for foreign travel If you’re going abroad, moving abroad, want to build new personal relationships, or are looking to level up your life, this is a conversation you won’t want to miss.In this episode, Gav and Dave sit down with David Ramos, a graduate of the Bush School of Government and Public Service who has turned language acquisition into what appears to be a competitive sport. David has 12 OPI certifications and picked up languages like Afrikaans and Swedish on a whim…and shares how you can do the same. The OPI is a foreign language interview exam that is used as a gold standard by the U.S. government, military, and private companies to test proficiency in a language. It's a tough exam to say the least! Drawing from their shared background in Peace Corps language training, Gav and Dave talk with David about how he got pulled into polyglottery in the first place, the psychology of learning fast, and what actually separates people who eventually become conversational from people who spend three years proudly knowing how to order coffee and ask where the bathroom is. The conversation also digs into identity and the ability to interact with the world through different ways of talking about it.David can be contacted here: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jdramos7201/If you enjoyed the episode, leave us a comment, subscribe, and share it with your friends. We always appreciate the support from our growing On the Fringe community. All the best from both of us,Dave and GavinYou can always contact us at [email protected] Thanks again for listening! 

This week, Dave and Gav sit down with Tomasz Nadrowski, author of Mineral Wars: China’s Quest for Weapons of Mineral Destruction. They dive into chokepoint theory, fragile supply chains and the disquieting reality that modern life is held together by a handful of minerals most people have never heard about until somebody threatens access to them.The conversation digs into how China has built enormous leverage over rare earth processing over the last few decades, why everything from smartphones and EVs to missile guidance systems depends on materials pulled from contested supply networks, and how governments are suddenly rediscovering that globalization works wonderfully right up until one country controls the thing your entire economy needs to survive.As always, thanks for listening! We really appreciate your listenership and the growing On the Fringe Community.  Don't forget to check out Tomasz's excellent podcast, Tyranny Today. And also, his book Mineral War: China's Quest for Weapons of Mineral DestructionIf you enjoyed the podcast, shoot us a message: [email protected] and leave us a review! All the best from both of us, Dave and Gav 

In this episode, Gav and Dave break down how Pakistan has become a critical piece on the board in the competition between the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. They focus especially on the millions of Pakistani migrant workers whose labor props up huge parts of the Gulf economy while also giving Islamabad a potential Achilles’ heel during moments of regional tension, where visas, remittances, military cooperation, and investment deals all start blending into a larger contest for greater influence.The result is a delicate balancing act where Gulf states want dependable partners and Pakistan wants Gulf money without becoming too dependent on any single patron, which, naturally, is the sort of arrangement that only stays stable—right up until it doesn’t.If you enjoyed the episode, please like, comment, and share it with your friends. We can’t thank our growing audience enough for your support and wouldn’t be here without YOU. And I (Dave) made a boo-boo! The UAE called up a $3.5 billion payment from Pakistan that Saudi largely backstopped, not $4 billion. (no notes, sorry!)If you'd like to throw a few rocks, send em Gav's way. He's always looking for a new pet rock: [email protected] Rock on! 🤘

On May 1, the UAE left OPEC, the Organization of the Petrolium Exporting Countries. This wasn't a brash move; it was a highly calculated manouver during a critical window for the country's future. In this episode, Dave and Gav look at how the UAE has drifted away from the consensus politics of institutions like Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and the Gulf Cooperation Council in favor of a more transactional worldview that treats regional politics less like alliances and more like market positioning.We’ll be unpacking how Abu Dhabi’s approach to trade, ports, normalization, proxy conflicts and investment strategy increasingly reflects a zero-sum mindset where influence is something to be accumulated before anyone else can.We contrast this with Saudi Arabia, which has struggled to pull off the same pivot not because its leadership lacks ambition, but because the kingdom is burdened with a much larger population, heavier subsidy expectations, religious obligations, and geographic exposure that make it far harder to reinvent itself into the kind of nimble commercial state the UAE has spent years trying to become.If you enjoyed the episode, do us a MASSIVE favor and share it, leave a comment, and tell your friends. Thank you for helping us grow the show. We wouldn’t be here without you!All the best from both of us On the Fringe,Dave and GavIf you'd like to join us on On the Fringe, or have any corrections for us, drop us a line! [email protected]

(00:00:00) Mali's Junta is short on time, fuel, and control (Feat. Stuart Bolus) (00:00:55) The Ongoing Crisis in Mali (00:03:40) Another major intelligence failure by the Junta (00:06:51) The Roles of Foreign Powers in Mali (00:14:08) AES to the rescue? (00:15:48) Why the future looks dark for Mali's Junta (00:21:34) Mali's civilians are being squeezed from both sides (00:22:22) What is Mali's next move, and where does it lead? Mali is on the edge. And the Sahel hangs in the balance. In this episode, with help from friend of the pod, Stuart Bolus, Gav and Dave dig into the April 25th attacks across Mali in which jihadist groups working in concert with Tuareg separatists attacked multiple cities, shut down key infrastructure, and killed the Malian Defense Minister and other key members of the ruling Junta.These events highlight an increasingly uncomfortable situation where Mali, a critically important country in the geographical and cultural center of the region, increasingly looks and behaves like a state on the brink of total collapse. We talk about what this means for the region, why we believe that outside assistance will likely not be coming (not for the government anyways) and why we’d all be surprised if the Malian government lasts until the end of 2026. If you enjoyed the episode, please leave us a comment, send us an email, or better yet—subscribe for more. We love hearing from our On the Fringe community! [email protected] the best from us On the Fringe,Dave and Gavin

Gav and Dave wade back into the increasingly unhinged world of prediction markets, starting with how Kalshi ended up fining and banning a handful of American politicians for betting on their own elections, which sounds small until you realize it’s basically insider trading with campaign posters.Then, the story gets serious. Jail time serious. They pivot to the much less subtle case of a U.S. military operator getting arrested after allegedly pulling in over $400,000 on Polymarket by betting on the capture of Nicolás Maduro using classified information. With the way things are, will more events like these continue coming out? Your guess is as good as ours--and you can probably go bet on it!Reach out to [email protected] with any comments, feedback, and hit that like button if you enjoyed it! We're always glad to have you on On the Fringe!Here are a few of our other episodes about predition markets:AI is So 2025 if Prediction Markets Get Their WayThe Fog of War and Profiteering on Prediction MarketsAll the best,Dave and Gavin 

Americans and international students are losing confidence in higher education in the United States.What does this mean?Gav and Dave are going back to college to explore how the financial crisis affecting higher education segues into a much larger (and arguably more important conversation) about how and why smaller colleges across the country are shutting their doors or taking emergency measures to stay open as enrollment in smaller schools drops. To put it metaphorically, schools are finding themselves in increasingly dire straits, and the Sultans of Swing are hitting their bottom lines. On those same lines, if a dollar today isn't nearly worth as much as a dollar in 1978, can you say the same for an "A"? If you enjoyed the episode, check out this one from season 2, going deeper into the crisis from an international student's perspective: Will an American education be worth it? Also, we love hearing from our audience. Shoot us an email at [email protected]. Our listenership has grown a LOT in the last few months and couldn't do it with out listeners like you. Please keep sharing it with your friends :) All the best from both of us On the Fringe,Dave and Gavin 

What does closing off the Strait of Hormuz mean for flyers to/in Europe this summer?Gav and Dave get their toes wet in jet fuel and try to answer this question. Over the last week, there has been real uncertainty over ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, and for European countries, whether they do or do not have enough jet fuel for the upcoming summer travel season. Listen and learn why the picture here is cloudy for flyers, and what airlines are doing about not getting a 'strait answer.'If you enjoyed the episode, share it with a friend, or leave us a comment and a some stars. We always appreciate it.All the best from both of us on On the Fringe,Dave and Gav  

In this episode of On The Fringe, Gav and Dave dig into the sudden collapse of the Board of Peace, because nothing says “stable international order” like an institution quietly disappearing mid-crisis.We trace how internal fractures, economic short-falls, and a complete inability to enforce its own mandates turned the Board of Peace from a conflict-dampening mechanism into another casualty of the current geopolitical moment.Its collapse will ultimately cause more knock-on effects cutting through regional alignments and the already frayed idea that anyone at the top is actually planning anything.Share your thoughts about this (or other events going on) with us at [email protected] for listening and all the best from both of us here on On the Fringe,Gav and DaveFor an in-depth dive into the Board of Peace, check out this episode: What if Peace was a literal country club?

This week, Polymarket and Kalshi are going to court in California to sort out whether or not the federal government or individual states have jurisdiction over them….and Donald Trump Jr. (a prominent investor/advisor to both and an actual board member of Kalshi) finds out whether or not he’s hit the jackpot.This ruling will affect national security concerns, sports, celebrities, elections, and other events, big and small, worldwide. How do governments try to figure out how to regulate betting on whether the sun comes up tomorrow? We don’t know—and if you have any ideas, shoot us an email!Here is our episode about how prediction markets have already impacted the US and Israeli conflict with Iran

When you see something online, do you honestly think it is genuine or has your best interest at heart?In this episode, Dave and Gavin talk with Braden Frame, COO of Modern Cartographers based out of Austin. Braden is a medically retired firefighter and expert digital literacy educator who helps communities across the country stay safe and improve communication, among other things. In the chat, we navigate the landscape of how social media has changed in the last few years and can be leveraged to strengthen campaigns and communities.We also dive into how we as average users of the internet can make a difference in our lives when we use AI positively as a tool to find solutions, not as the solution, and end the podcast with a reminder from Braden that you don't want to miss. www.moderncartographers.comMeet Braden hereIf you'd like to join us On the Fringe, shoot us an email at [email protected]

For roughly 6 weeks, Afghanistan and Pakistan have been fighting a hot war that has received very little coverage. Yet the ongoing conflict is impacting (and being impacted by) the Iran War and events in South Asia. We have been following it—and have even made episodes about it that we planned to release—but shelved them because they were stale by the release date.This is a quick update about the last few weeks (and before) in that part of the world, two main causes of the war, and who is stepping up to quell the fighting.If you learned something, don’t forget to like, comment, subscribe, and share. We really appreciate it!Take care from both of us On the Fringe,Dave and Gavin 

A belated Eid Mubarak, Happy Easter, and Happy Passover to all. The last three weeks have come at a very sensitive time for hundreds of millions of people in the Middle East. Despite all of the differences, many still find faith as a cornerstone of their lives, especially when all looks lost.Regardless of what you believe, let’s all keep hope close and remember the night is darkest just before dawn.All the best from both of us On the Fringe,Dave and Gavin

With the ongoing Iran conflict, Dave and Gavin examine how millions of dollars are being wagered on strikes, leadership challenges, and ceasefires, turning war into a tradable asset for the masses. Learn how simple financial bets and gambling compulsions are now on a collision course with real-world violence...and reality. If you enjoyed the episode, don’t forget to like, comment, subscribe, or share. We truly appreciate it!

This week, Gav and Dave, joined by guest Leo Andolsek, take a wide-angle view of the Balkans.Leo cuts through the noise in modern media to unpack the layered history, cultures, and persistent tensions of this fascinating corner of Europe. Our chat connects the past and present in plain terms, winding through the rise and collapse of Yugoslavia and tiptoeing past the fault lines that still define relations between its successor states. The conversation largely focuses on how historical memories, complex dynamics, and transcending nationalism shape all of these countries today.Stay tuned to the end though. Leo dives into a key cultural nuance of the region that will help you better understand their mentality--especially when it comes to developing some of the world's greatest minds and athletes, including Nikola Tesla and Nikola Jokić.If you enjoyed the episode, don’t forget to like, comment, subscribe, and share the podcast. We appreciate it!

(00:00:00) Why West Africa is struggling and falling to jihadists (00:00:37) The Current State of West Africa (00:03:23) Big challenges in the Sahel Region (00:06:09) The impact of jihadists on local West African communities (00:09:04) Economic and security struggles (00:11:52) The roles of foreign troops in West Africa (00:16:42) Nigeria's ongoing leadership crisis (00:17:59) The need for economics to play a lead role (00:20:27) Signs of desperation across the region (00:24:19) The current employment picture and harsh reality of the informal economy (00:28:16) Shifting local aspirations toward far-off dreams (00:29:24) How demographics are exacerbating these problems (00:31:29) Fusing the disconnected segments across (00:33:31) Industrial policy successes and failures in West Africa and Ghana (00:35:35) The growing divide between elites and common people (00:40:15) Cultural disconnect of elites in their own country (00:42:46) Military leaders as change agents (00:44:55) The path forward in West Africa is to look back West Africa is in a tumultuous economic crisis that is fueling the spread of jihadism in the region. In this episode, Dave and Gavin talk to old friend of the pod, Stuart Bolus, about the state of West Africa and how it became so unstable. In this wide ranging conversation, we talk about the economic crisis underpinning the jihadi violence tearing the Sahel apart, the colonial problems that lead to this, and how that economic crisis coincides with larger social and demographic problems that will continue to make West Africa a region to watch for a long, long time. We also make light of the plight of the humble yam farmer, for which we apologize. Spreand and share our insight if you learned something. We sincerely appreciate it! For more of Stuart's insight, don't miss this episode about democracy in West Africa.And, for more on one of the key leaders in the region, don't miss this episode about the man of the hour in West Africa.The map of West Africa in the corner of the cover art was made by Sannita and is available here on Wikimedia. No changes were made. The yam in the corner of the cover art was made by Muktee1494 and is available here on Wikimedia. No changes were made. 

The Gulf States (from east to west: Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar UAE, Oman) are at the center of an accelerating confrontation between the US and Israel, and Iran. In this episode, Gavin and Dave take a hard look at the region that is drifting into a conflict cycle that neither side fully controls. They talk about the security architecture of the individual GCC states, Tehran’s strategy of escalation and asymmetric warfare, and the affects of political and economic constraints in capitals like Riyadh and Abu Dhabi.We also dive into how limited disruption around the Strait of Hormuz reverberates throughout the global economy, and the ramifications will continue for a long, long time--and may even raise the likelihood of other conflicts in Asia.If you enjoyed or found value in our analysis, share it and let us know! Thanks for joining us On the Fringe!Dave and Gavin 

(00:00:00) Season 4, Episode 6: Indonesia, Gaza, and rules of engagement (00:00:32) Podcast Intro (00:01:28) Overview of the Board of Peace Meeting in Washington (00:04:00) What is the the ISF (International Stabilization Force) and who plans to join? (00:06:40) This country backed out from sending troops (00:08:05) The key missing ingredient to stability in Gaza (00:10:27) Why is Indonesia stepping up? (00:13:05) How we see the ISF coming together (00:16:33) Thank you for listening! The Board of Peace held its 2026 annual meeting in Washington, DC, gaining capital commitments and additional members. During the meeting, five member countries on the Board of Peace (Indonesia, Morocco, Albania, Kosovo, and Kazakhstan) have all pledged to send troops to the Gaza Strip.In this episode, Gavin and Dave dive into why these countries intend to commit troops to the International Stabilization Force, their motivations for joining, and immediate challenges the peacekeeping force will face.Most notably, we discuss why rules of engagement will be critical to the stability of Gaza, and why a general lack of transparency will likely handicap any real attempt to bring peace to Gaza.Can these five countries, likely led by Indonesia achieve long lasting peace?Let us know what you think! shoot us a message at [email protected] Thanks for listening as always and all the best from us On the Fringe,Dave and Gavin 

(00:00:00) Why South Korean Presidents go to prison: From the Blue House to the big house (00:00:35) A list of Korea's former Presidents (00:02:05) Who is Yoon Suk Yeol? (00:03:05) The reality of seeing what has happened to former presidents of South Korea (00:04:54) The aftermath of another Korean President going to prison (00:07:24) Major problems Korea's right has to solve to stay relevant (00:08:59) Why Korea is unique today geopolitically (00:11:31) Korea's defense, tech, and entertainment industries are stepping up (00:13:47) Where we see Korea's future (00:15:28) Thank you for listening Why do so many former presidents of South Korea (Park Geun Hye, Lee Myeung Bak, and now Yoon Suk Yeol) leave the Blue House (청와대) under a cloud of investigation or prosecution? And, why is this cycle hard to break? In this bonus episode, Gavin and Dave analyze the pattern of presidential downfall in Korea. Geopolitical tension in the region, shifting security guarantees from the U.S., and a demographic crisis make the role of president less forgiving than in the past. Not to mention, millions of Korean citizens standing up for democracy. Currently, South Korea faces rising pressure from North Korea and China, increasing disengagement from the United States, and at the same time, a declining birthrate--now the lowest in the world. A shrinking population feeds cultural anxiety and creates a long-term security problem for a country that relies on conscription, and a consumption based economy. In turn, this means more strain on the military system and on public finances.Will South Korea become more politically unstable? Will a swift change in demographics or technological improvements allow the country to keep pace? Let us know what you think, and follow On the Fringe for more under-the-radar stories about key people and events that are shaping our world. We certainly appreciate the support. Thanks and take care!Dave and Gavin Here are our past episodes covering the topic from back in Season 1 (December 2024) about Yoon's initial declaration of martial law. Here is part 2 of the initial aftermath.Here is part 3 on Korea's Festering Crisis.

This week, Gav and Dave dive headlong into the weird, wonderful world of prediction markets; giant online betting platforms where you can put a wager on just about anything. These new multi-billion dollar markets seem to be incentivizing people to bet on anything. In this quick bonus, we take a quick dive into a story of two Israelis with military connections being charged this last week with misusing military secrets to put bets on strikes against Iran--and an ongoing investigation into $400,000 dollars that one lucky punter walked away with after the removal of Nicolas Maduro in January.And, with impressive capital gains and political backing in all the right places, it doesn’t seem like something that governments or corporations will be able (or willing) to put a lid on any of this any time soon.Leave us your best feedback, a comment, or your favorite emoji and we will get back to you. Thanks again for listening!

In this episode, Gavin and Dave move the spotlight to Africa, where the Saudi–UAE rivalry is less than subtle and where a flare-up might have a major impact on your world.As it has played out, the UAE has backed, funded and supplied weapons and mercenaries to the RSF, one of the two competing factions in the Sudanese Civil War; the other faction, the Sudanese Armed Forces, are increasingly dependent on Egyptian and Turkish logistical support and defense platforms paid for with money from Riyadh.In Somalia, this has manifested for Emirati support for Somaliland’s recognition of Israel and Saudi’s backing of the Federal government in Mogadishu (aided by Turkish F-16s and one of the largest military bases in Sub-Saharan Africa).The increasingly fraught relations between the two countries shows no signs of course correcting any time soon….though the Board of Peace might conceivably play some role in whatever comes next.Will the Board of Peace make its first big play and showcase its value? (It is $1 billion to join).Let us know what you think and shoot us an email at [email protected]. We look forward to hearing from you!Dave and Gav

In this episode Dave and Gav dig into the increasingly heated rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, two monarchies that once moved in lockstep, but are now violently competing for regional dominance.What began as a strategic partnership, most visibly in Yemen after 2015, has evolved into a contest over leadership of the Gulf, influence in OPEC+, and control of trade routes. Saudi Arabia under MBS is repositioning itself as the political and economic heavyweight of the Middle East, pressuring multinationals to relocate regional headquarters to Riyadh and recalibrating its foreign policy outreach.Meanwhile, the UAE has leveraged its port networks, financial hubs, and interventionist security policies to build influence from the Horn of Africa to the Eastern Mediterranean.This episode lays out how the two countries are increasingly tangled up in all the worst ways. Is this former close relationship a sign of more things to come in geopolitics, or just a quick flash in the pan?Here's that episode about Colombians in Sudan from the archives. We feel like we've improved our delivery since then and hope you enjoy this classic from the vaults. :)All the best,Dave and Gav 

The Grand Emperor said it's the literal end of the golden road. A well-known hotel in Macau just ripped out its iconic showpiece as gold prices are at (nearly) record highs. Learn why this is happening and what this means going forward for the Special Administrative Region of China.If you liked the short, let us know and smash that like button! We appreciate it. All the best from us on the Fringe!

Prepping for the geography part trivia night just got a LOT harder and more cumbersome. Hey all! In this quick episode we explore what the end of the CIA World Factbook means for inquiring minds. If you enjoy the short episode, don’t forget to like, comment, subscribe or share with your fellow trivia team or geo-bee all stars.

Hey all!We are going back to a topic that we’ve followed since the beginning of On the Fringe—scam farms in Southeast Asia. Some of our first episodes covered these scam farms and organized crime in the region, including the wild tales of Alice Guo, former mayor of Banban in the Philppines.These bad guys are using the latest technology, modern-day slavery, and cunning tactics to get you, the average citizen, to lose trust in society as well as your life savings.Despite the recent crackdown (and Dave and Gavin’s reasoning as to specifically why RIGHT now), we think the problem will get worse. Learn how and why by listening to this episode—and share it with your loved ones, especially if they use social media or are not tech-savvy. If you’ve ever caught them in their sneaky traps, share your story and shoot us an email!

This week, Dave and Gavin take a look into a new organization, that seems to be a real harbinger of things to come. Initially pitched as a ‘technocratic government’ for Gaza, the initial concept of an executive board has snowballed into an organization with a charter as vague as its members are colorful. United by a vision of governance that is action-oriented and personality-based, the Board of Peace, even if it goes down in flames, is likely to dominate conversations about international relations for years to come.Listen to learn what we think the first real test will be for Trump's new Board of Peace, and who will flying past. If you enjoyed the episode or learned something, pass it on, shoot us a message, and let us know. We are excited to be back and will be coming out with more on the way.

(00:00:00) Season 4, Episode 1: The rule of fang and claw (00:00:20) Podcast Starts -- The end of the International Order (00:02:41) Implications of a new world dynamic (00:05:45) What changes for middle / regional powers (00:08:26) Au revoir to liberal institutionalism (00:11:31) Uncertainty is the new name of the game Hey all! We are kicking off season 4 much earlier than we’d thought. Why?Early Saturday morning, the international rules-based order, or what was left of it, expired both painfully and suddenly with the removal of Nicolas Maduro (and his wife) from Caracas to New York City.In this episode, we focus, not on the events of that early morning raid, but of its potential and actual ramifications for international relations. The idea that relations between states are governed by codified, internationally-accepted laws has been the main characteristic of relations between states over the last 75 years. It is no longer the case, and inter-state conflict is about to ramp up in a way that is both predictable and utterly impossible to foresee.If you enjoyed the episode, shoot us a comment, give us some love, and let us know.We appreciate it and will be back again soon!Dave and Gavin

Hey all! Happy 2026!Gavin and I wish you all the best in your endeavors this year—and we would love to hear about them (and how we can help!)We kicked On the Fringe off in the fall of 2024 and posted the first season on our Substack.  Then, we added On the Fringe Podcast on Apple Podcast last January (2025) and have more support, downloads, and interest than we could have imagined. We wouldn’t be here without you guys and can’t thank you enough for your support and the thousands of hours you've listed to our show. We're still figuring all of this out, by the way!Since we started Season 3 in August, We’ve doubled our listeners (and it’s not just Aunt Leena telling Aunt Nelda). We are seeing real listener growth with the show and will keep it going strong for Season 4. Shoot us a message here of your favorite episodes (or total busts) and topics that YOU want to hear more about. As we keep growing, we want to hear more from y’all! What do you like, what do you NOT like, and where can we get better to provide you a better listener experience. We’re going to keep unraveling geopolitical events and AI as we move forward into season 4, and will be coming at you with more in the coming weeks. Thanks again!Dave and Gavin

Hello all, from over top of Baffin Island!I’m about as far as north as you can go, and depending on your viewpoint, OpenAI may be just as near the top of Santa’s naughty list next year. Or their bank account may start to climb to new heights too.We’ve got a short bonus episode that’s been under the radar in the West, and front page news in India. OpenAI’s mobile version of ChatGPT, called ChatGPT Go, is now free in India for a full year for new subscribers. Gavin and I dive into potential reasons why this might be happening, and what the future may hold for the company and hundreds of millions of Indians (as well as other users worldwide) who take advantage of it and get hooked, for better or for worse.If you like the episode, don’t forget to give us a like, comment, or subscribe. We truly appreciate it! And, if you think we’re totally off base here—call us out.Thanks as always for listening, and have a wonderful Holiday Season!Dave and Gavin

Hey all! This week on On the Fringe, Dave and Gavin yack about a recent incident in Reno, Nevada, where a man was misidentified by using AI technology. We jump into the uses and misuses of AI in the modern world, and what increased reliance of AI systems and technology without the human element leads society toward.If you’re curious about our take on it, don’t miss this episode!After you're done listening, here are some of our more recent episodes about AI. Season 3, Episode 21, On the Edge of Everything, with Practical AI CEO Derek CragerSeason 3, Episode 5: A Crash Course on GPTs, with John Otwell, a Software EngineerSeason 3, Episode 7: Questions anyone using AI needs to ask themselves, with John Otwell and Kevin WongIf you enjoyed the episode, don’t forget to like, comment, share, and subscribe. We truly appreciate it! Shoot us a message here.Here's the video we referenced in the episode:https://youtu.be/B9M4F_U1eEw?si=testFg29pvSixGE-All the best, Dave and Gavin No AI was used in the recording of this episode, but it was used to make the image of the guy in the top right corner of the cover art. 

(00:00:00) Season 3, Episode 23: Kyrgyzstan, land of mountains, mines, and elections. Featuring Joe Barnes (00:00:21) Podcast Intro, travel, and upcoming elections in Kyrgyzstan (00:04:23) The current political landscape and historical context (00:12:26) Social media usage in elections in Kyrgyzstan (00:16:23) the CSTO's Role in Central Asia (00:20:46) Ethnic Tensions in the Fergana Valley (00:25:21) Kyrgyzstan's relationship with China (00:29:08) Kyrgyzstan's future and the long-term outlook This week, Dave and Gav brought back Joe Barnes, friend of the pod and guest on our episode about neighboring Kazakhstan to talk about Kyrgyzstan. Joe dives into a deep backstory about the Kyrgyz Republic, and why the country has taken off economically in the last few years. One reason—it’s absolutely beautiful and an incredible value for your money.We also discuss a brief modern history of the country (and region) and what has changed in Kyrgyz civil society and how important gold and mining are to the country. If you’ve got an inkling to explore Central Asia on foot or online, don’t miss this episode.We love to hear from our listeners and fans. Leave us some feedback, your favorite emoji, or a rating. Take care and all the best from us On the Fringe!Dave and GavReach out to Joe on his website, X/Twitter, and see his articles for the Diplomat here.

(00:00:00) The airstrike in Cambodia (00:02:33) The airstrike in Benin Two unexpected turns of events and two growing regional powers are stepping up. Hey all! We’ve got a quick episode for you and two events we will likely be covering in our next season in greater depth.In the first part, Dave and Gav talk about what’s going on between Thailand and Cambodia.In the second part, Gavin goes on a tear and gets to the bottom of a murky situation in Benin, a country critical to the regional stability of West Africa. As always, thanks for listening and joining us On the Fringe! If you enjoyed the episode, let us know here. All the best,Dave and Gav

Hey all! Over the last couple of weeks, IndiGo, India’s largest airline has suffered from major operational setbacks. We’re diving into the most recent one that caused the airline to cancel thousands of flights in the last week as well as why these events may have occurred.If you’re interested in India, don’t miss this episode—and if you’re flying to or within India, we wish you the best in getting to your destination and feel for those who are "Moody in Mumbai” or “Desperate in Delhi.”If you enjoy it, share it and give us some feedback—positive or negative. We always appreciate it!Thanks always for the support and take care,Dave and Gavin

(00:00:00) Season 3, Episode 21: On the Edge of Everything. The Future of AI, with Derek Crager, CEO of Practical AI (00:00:23) Intro (00:01:05) How we met Derek Crager (00:01:43) Interview starts--How did Derek discover the power of AI (00:04:37) Human first AI (00:07:23) AI's role in developing critical thinking + to help make better decisions (00:10:14) Human first AI in Education (00:18:00) AI's use to empower students in the classroom (00:19:56) How to learn something new, with or without AI (00:24:57) AI mentorship can help you to dig deeper (00:26:56) The AI world of the future (00:28:56) AI as an engagement tool and the "secret sauce" (00:33:07) Fiction as the anchor of creativity (00:34:52) Derek's upcoming book, "Human First AI" This week, Dave and Gav talk with Derek ‘DC’ Crager, the CEO of Practical AI.Derek is at the forefront of building what he describes as ‘human-first’ AI and makes the pitch that AI has to be tailored to human needs.We talk about the uses and misuses of AI technology, where it could make a real difference in people’s lives, and not only for improving productivity.If you’re curious about future technology and the impact on life as we know it, don’t miss this episode.For more information about Derek’s company Practical AI and Pocket Mentor click below. https://www.practicalai.app/Derek also provided the first chapter of his book, “Human First AI,” available below. https://www.humanfirstai.net/

(00:00:00) Season 3, Episode 20: Why the state of African democracy matters, featuring Stuart Bolus (00:00:20) Podcast Intro (00:01:09) One of the West's biggest problems with West Africa (00:04:51) Why West Africa doesn't reflect the countries that colonized it, notably France (00:07:50) How this affects the countries' political systems (00:11:10) What democracy often looks like in West Africa (00:15:03) Benefits to a two-party system like in the U.S. and Ghana (00:18:53) Political systems and the need for institutions (00:24:14) Another key metric to the foundation of democracy (00:25:09) How elections and votes are tallied (00:30:22) A major roadblock for local African political movements (00:37:19) Riding off into the sunset (00:38:23) Gambia's interesting electoral system (00:40:29) Gavin's tale about the Nigerian Legislative Assembly (00:43:52) Democracy is affordable, but comes at a high price (00:46:16) Closing We've brought back Stuart Bolus from last season to talk about the state of African democracy. He was a guest on episode episode back in Season 2 about the man of the hour in Burkina Faso.You’ll learn what African Democracy looks like, why it is fragile, and how it differs from country to country, along with local insight, including how illiterates can vote and serve as National Assembly members in one country. Shoot us a message, leave us a comment, or send us your favorite emoji if you enjoyed the ep! We love hearing from our On the Fringe community.Thanks as always for checking us out On the Fringe!All the best,Dave and Gavin The colorful flag map of Africa in the corner of our podcast art is from Wikimedia and was made by WwJLaik and can be found here:

For this bonus episode, Gav and Dave talk about a real interesting response to a recent Gallup poll in which 40% of American women between the ages of 15-44 declared their interest in leaving the United States permanently. If this doesn’t cause you some concern, you might be looking at a different number. Share below or shoot us an email about what you think means and if we’re off base here. We’d love to hear your opinions.As always, thanks for listening and joining us On the Fringe.Happy Thanksgiving to everyone else in the States!Dave and Gav

(00:00:00) Season 3, Episode 19: The twisting and turning tales of Alice...Guo (00:00:20) Podcast Starts (00:00:55) Introduction about Alice Guo (00:04:40) How Alice got caught (00:06:19) Alice's wild getaway through Southeast Asia (00:08:02) key details that the media misses in this story (00:10:40) Big changes in Philippine politics (00:14:50) Big shifts in the Philippines' posture (00:18:11) Closing This week, Gav and Dave return to one of the first stories we covered here on On the Fringe, the story of Alice Guo, one-time mayor of Bamban in the northern Philippines, erstwhile inmate in the Filipino prison system.We dive into the bare bones of who she is, how she wound up as mayor, and why she just got sentenced to life in prison, along with diving into how this informs larger narratives playing out in Southeast Asia.We made a couple of small booboos. POGO stands for Philippine Offshore Gaming Operations, not organizations Alice did not live iat the compound, but she was the FBO for a company, Baofu Land Development Corporation, that owned it. For the very SERIOUS allegations that She Zhejiang and Alice worked for the MSS: She Zhejiang disclosed during an interview to al Jazeera that he worked for the MSS. And, She had information that Alice was also connected. (same video, about 16:42)We can't confirm if what She said is true or not—pun intended. Thanks for listening and leave us a comment, like, or share the word. We appreciate it!All the best from On the Fringe, Dave and GavAfter you’ve listened, here's that past episode about Alice.