The decimation convergence

The US went to war in Iran last week without a clear understanding of its war aims or strategic pathways. I’ve characterised this as a divergence between the US and the Israeli approaches to this war: the Israelis are in it to degrade Iranian offensive capability. The Americans are in it for reasons that aren’t entirely clear, and which differ among senior Administration officials. Last Thursday we started to see convergence, not along the lines of a replacement Iranian regime (which both the US and Israel have offered as their desired end-state), but along the lines of giving Iran enough of a kicking that regardless of their intentions, they are incapable of menacing anyone. Speaking loosely, the American President suggested that Iran wouldn’t be a threat for a decade, but that’s hyperbole: like the ‘obliteration’ of Iran’s nuclear programme in 2025, it underestimates Iran’s resilience, particularly the resilience of its ballistic missile production.The British Government was right to expect a more complete explanation of America’s war aims before permitting American forces to fly attack missions from British bases in England and British Indian Ocean Territory. The British Government is now trying to appear decisive by sending the ship we have (HMS Prince of Wales, an aircraft carrier) instead of the ship we needed last week (HMS Dragon, an air defence destroyer) to defend RAF Akrotiri from drone attack. The American president’s response has been … unkind. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nusbacher.substack.com/subscribe