The Dog Days of Summer

BEEF We hit Independence Day next weekend and the start of the “dog days of summer." Once we get clear of the holiday I do expect we will see a market reset, especially on middle meats. I’m not looking for a crash, but I do expect we will see a steady decline over the month of July possibly right into August. There is some data to suggest ground beef is hitting a bit of a ceiling for customer acceptance. I do think we will push past that resistance, but it will be slowly inching higher; if consumer push back is strong enough, we could see grinds settle out where they are. We’ll keep watching but in my opinion we will see moderate increases continue into August. With production last week only 526K head just up from 524K the week prior, inventories will continue to be tight. Stay ahead of your needs. Looking at New World Screw worm, eight new cases, one sheep, one goat, and six head of cattle. Expect the southern border to remain closed to live animal imports through the rest of this year, and most likely well into 2027. POULTRY Chicken production continues strong, they are not letting up. Demand for boneless skinless random breasts and party wings are moving prices higher next week. Tenders which were out of line with randoms just a few weeks ago have declined to be comparable in costs. Good to keep pushing out that chicken. On the Avian Flu beat, one new case affecting 3K birds. GRAINS Overall grains are moving lower especially soy oil. Finally breaking lower from the recent highs. I don’t think we will return to the low markets of early this year, but pricing is coming off. Wheat closed at $4.19 down from last week’s $4.30. Wheat closed at $5.84 down from last week’s $6.11. I do expect to see lower grain costs continue as long as we don’t have a major disruption. PORK Pricing on pork bellies declined again this week, closing today at $116 down from last week’s $118. This is not an expecting market level for early summer. I’ll keep buying bacon at this level, and you should too. Butts are coming off again next week and loins moved up a few pennies but still offer a great value in protein. DAIRY And a split decision on dairy markets this week, through Thursday’s close, barrel is up 3, while block is down 4 and butter continues lower down 6 for the week. Dairy markets are at good levels for buying now. We’ll keep watching. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn